Wolfsburg – Leverkusen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 11 on Saturday, 22.11.2025 at 15:30 CET
The Werkself are strong enough to consistently beat weak to medium-strength opponents, but not stable enough to hold their own against the real heavyweights in the long term – regardless of whether they are in domestic or international competitions!
If the guests remain loyal to this line, then my Wolfsburg Leverkusen tip should be just the thing for you to win big on Saturday at Bet365 or other outstanding sports betting providers.
Especially since VfL has been drifting around on the open sea for months like a frigate with a broken midmast – without course, without stability. And if this downward spiral continues, then the Wolves are actually threatened with the painful transition to the second division even after the dismissal of Simonis.
And if you really still have doubts about my Wolfsburg Leverkusen prediction, then it’s worth taking a look at the head-to-head comparison – it speaks for itself!
VfL are without a win in seven Bundesliga matches against Bayer 04 – the last win dates back to October 2021 in Leverkusen (2-0).
At home, Wolfsburg have been waiting for a Bundesliga home win against the Werkself for nine games and over ten years. In the last seven home games, the Wolves have only scored a single goal against the Rhinelanders.
Wolfsburg – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting Tips
Any Wolfsburg Leverkusen tip that sees the Werkself dictating or winning this duel is welcome with me. Perhaps the Rhinelanders will subject the Wolves to the same treatment as Heidenheim (6-0) immediately before the international break – in any case, that is not out of the question!
1st goal: Leverkusen is an integral part of my extended betting slip at odds of around 1.72.
The risk variant 1st half: Victory B04 with HC -1 available in the Interwetten app also made it onto my list.
The corresponding odds of currently 5.55 are high enough to justify the risk in the event of success – especially if Leverkusen again puts in a monumental first half of the game, as they did recently against FCH. At first glance, there is nothing wrong with it!
What you need to consider when betting on Wolfsburg vs. Leverkusen
- VfL Wolfsburg is experiencing the longest run without a home win in its Bundesliga history with 13 consecutive Bundesliga home games without a win (6 defeats).
- Leverkusen picked up 19 points in their first eight Bundesliga games under new coach Kasper Hjulmand (only one defeat). Only FC Bayern (22 points) has been more successful in this period.
- Wolfsburg, currently in 14th place in the Bundesliga, is only considered by bookmakers to be the fifth biggest relegation candidate.
- Patrik Schick scored as many goals as Dimitar Berbatov with his 69th Bundesliga goal for Leverkusen against Heidenheim and is thus equal with the club’s most successful foreign goalscorer in the Bundesliga.
Wolfsburg – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
There is so much planning uncertainty at VfL that our Wolfsburg Leverkusen AI forecast goes one step further than I do. They recommend the selection Win B04 with HC -2 at odds around 7.40 – and for good reason.
In addition to the already confirmed absences, the appearances of players such as Dardai, Fischer, Gerhardt, Lindström, Maehle and Majer are all on the brink. This only makes the already extremely difficult work of the interim coach even more difficult!
So I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the guests actually won a brutal 7-0 victory in the end.
Furthermore, our data model for the two bets 1st half: Leverkusen over 1.5 goals and the somewhat more general variant 1st half: over 2.5 goals is equally strong. The average odds are an attractive 4.50 and slightly higher 5.30 respectively.
There are good reasons for both suggestions: not only the VfL defence’s susceptibility to errors, but also the fact that Bayer have scored 20 of their 24 Bundesliga goals before the 60th minute – in three of their last four top-flight away games, they have even let it rip before the 30th minute!
The best odds for Wolfsburg vs. Leverkusen
The numbers point to a duel in which Leverkusen are slight favourites, but VfL are by no means without a chance.
A home win by Wolfsburg is rated 3.20, which corresponds to around 31 percent probability of occurrence. The bookmakers surprisingly believe that the Wolves have a halfway realistic chance of success despite the many absences, the form crisis and the change of coach!
The draw is 3.80, about 26 percent chance. This odds signal that the betting markets are planning for a possible close game in which both teams act tactically cautiously and avoid mistakes.
After all, there is an average of 2.05 for an away win for Leverkusen, which corresponds to around 49 percent probability of occurrence. The Werkself go into the game as slight favourites, benefit from individual quality and stable form – that’s also my favourite tip!
Overall, however, the Wolfsburg Leverkusen odds draw a duel that, according to the bookmakers, promises more excitement than I myself expect!
Wolfsburg vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
Wolfsburg is in a deep crisis after a 2-1 defeat against Bremen, which culminated in the dismissal of Paul Simonis. For the second time in his career, Daniel Bauer is now taking over as interim coach in a difficult phase.
It remains to be seen what Bauer will change, but Leverkusen will clearly set the pace here. Under Kasper Hjulmand, the Werkself have had a strong season so far and are only two points behind the second-placed team.
The Rhinelanders’ attack combines possession with precision: Leverkusen are third in the league with 58.2% average possession, while Wolfsburg are clearly behind with 46.2% – an indicator of who will dominate the game.
Wolfsburg relies on a restrained game without high pressing and waits for counter-attacking opportunities. They use this tactic skillfully, but in the final third they rarely succeed in winning the ball!
Against Leverkusen, who are precise and ball-oriented, this strategy can also quickly backfire.
The Werkself are second in the league in terms of successful passes per game and will use possession to put Wolfsburg under constant pressure and consistently exploit the resulting goalscoring chances. So it’s clear who will determine the game: Leverkusen.
Wolfsburg Form Check
The last game started promisingly for Wolfsburg: After 28 minutes, Mattias Svanberg scored at the Weserstadion to take a 1-0 lead!
But Paul Simonis’ team could not maintain the level and defended in their own third for long stretches.
This defensive attitude was punished in the end with two painful goals conceded within the last seven minutes – the seventh defeat in eight games, which ultimately led to Simonis’ dismissal!
Wolfsburg, German champions in 2009 and still in the Champions League in 2021/22, are thus unexpectedly deep in the bottom of the table after ten Bundesliga matchdays in 2025/26.
The team looks unbalanced after the summer transfers: Christian Eriksen was brought in even though the midfield is overcrowded anyway, Mohamed Amoura stayed even though he wanted to move.
Offensively, there are no clear chances, defensively they allow too many shots on goal, as the xGA value of 1.69 per game shows.
Before the winter break, there are still difficult tasks against Frankfurt and Freiburg – a positive “new coach effect” would be urgently needed here.
Leverkusen form check
Leverkusen led 5-0 at half-time in their last league game against Heidenheim and won 6-0 in the end.
Kasper Hjulmand’s team celebrated their second win in a row after beating Benfica 1-0 in the Champions League.
The clear home win was an important response to the painful 3-0 defeat against Bayern, which should have almost completely suffocated the chances of winning the German championship.
Incidentally, the only 19-year-old Ibrahim Maza has been particularly noticeable in recent games, scoring two goals despite a deeper midfield role. Could Leverkusen have found the “new” Florian Wirtz here?
Too early to say, but the injuries to Tella and Fernandez give Maza the chance to make his mark.
The team is also stabilising defensively: Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in four of their last eight games, having conceded 11 goals in the first seven games.
Under Hjulmand, the team has gained stability and is expected to play a close duel with Dortmund in the fight for second place behind Bayern – both in the league and soon in the DFB Cup.
