Dortmund – Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 11 on Saturday, 22.11.2025 at 15:30 CET
No matter which bookmaker with Paysafecard you ask – they all assume that there will be a hail of goals when these two teams meet on Bundesliga matchday 11.
But I and our model, which is richly fed with data, are skeptical about this. In fact, we’re taking a completely different approach with our Dortmund Stuttgart prediction.
I justify this primarily with my gut feeling and the injury-related absence of important offensive players such as Ermedin Demirovic, while my digital betting adjutant relies on numbers as usual.
Did you know, for example, that the type of bet we finally picked out for BVB matches would have been successful in 9 out of 10 cases this season?
As far as the possible outcome of the game is concerned, I’m holding back. What is clear, however, is that BVB must end their negative run against Stuttgart on Saturday if they want to play at the top in 2025/26!
VfB have already won their last five competitive games against Borussia Dortmund – the same number of victories as they have celebrated in the previous 33 matches combined.
Now, for the first time in their long Bundesliga history, Borussia could even lose six competitive games in a row against the recalcitrant Swabians.
Dortmund – Stuttgart Prediction & Betting
Double Chance X2 has a positive expected value for me at odds of about 2.00 on any decent betting app. Because I locate the probability of success of this bet beyond the 60 percent mark.
And who could seriously blame me for this decision? After all, the Swabians have picked up the most points in the league since Matchday 4 (18) after the unstoppable Bayern (19).
Precisely because the guests are in such good form at the moment, I can also make friends with the selection of 1st goal: Stuttgart very well. Especially at respectable odds of about 2.67.
Because if you have won 6 of your last games and have been able to give Borussia so much headache in recent years, you can also net to make it 1-0 on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park.
What you need to know about Dortmund vs. Stuttgart betting
- Borussia Dortmund have collected 21 points from their first ten Bundesliga games – their best start to the season since 2021/22 (24 points at the time).
- Stuttgart have won the last five consecutive games against Borussia Dortmund. BVB’s last win was a 5-0 win in October 2022.
- Only in one BVB game this season (3-3 against St. Pauli on Matchday 1) have four or more goals been scored.
- Borussia Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy scored 45 goals in 65 games for BVB, surpassing his 44 goals in 58 games for his next opponents, VfB Stuttgart.
Dortmund – Stuttgart: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
At the end of the day, it is not only difficult for me to recommend a clear 1X2 bet, but also for the Dortmund Stuttgart AI prediction.
But from a purely mathematical point of view, this is not a problem at all. Because the draw option is loudly recommended as an alternative by our digital betting brains precisely because of its optimal risk-reward ratio.
The odds of around 4.10 traded in this context are attractive enough to take this risk. In any case, I would be anything but shocked if it were actually 1-1 on the scoreboard after the final whistle.
Under 2.5 goals as well as the selection To score both: No have also been mentioned by the AI. If successful, you can expect values of 2.50 each for both bets.
Of course, this is a bit more daring than the suggestion in the headline, but soberly considered, our data model bases its assumption on a solid statistical foundation.
Did you know that Dortmund (6) and Stuttgart (4) are two of the three Bundesliga clubs that have collected the most clean sheets in the league?
The strong Dortmund defence has also conceded only 7 goals so far in the entire 2025/26 Bundesliga season. Of course, I am open to the conclusion of both betting proposals.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Stuttgart
Let’s now take a look at the betting markets to see how the Dortmund Stuttgart odds turned out and what the sports betting providers have to say about this duel.
The numbers reveal a game in which Dortmund is slightly favourites, but Stuttgart is given chances.
A victory for Dortmund is traded at 1.77, which corresponds to a probability of occurrence of around 56 percent.
The Black and Yellows benefit above all from home advantage and individual class, which they often play out in such games.
The tie is 4.10, about 24 percent chance. This odds show that bookmakers do not rule out a possible close game in which Stuttgart remains defensively compact and Dortmund does not fully find their way into the game.
For an away win of VfB there is 4.00, which corresponds to around 25 percent probability of occurrence. The odds signal that the guests are quite capable of taking points with a disciplined style of play – a tip with attractive value for the brave.
The Dortmund Stuttgart odds thus point to a relatively close duel, in which BVB is slightly ahead, but the Swabians are by no means written off prematurely.
Dortmund vs Stuttgart Match Analysis:
It will be exciting to see how Niko Kovac, who is under pressure for the first time since taking over at Borussia Dortmund, sets up his team for this home game.
Dortmund is playing a strong season, but expectations are traditionally high in Westphalia. Last season, the hosts had five points less after ten games, but the feeling remains that Borussia is not yet mature.
Defensively, the team has become more stable, as shown by six clean sheets – more than in the entire 2024/25 season – but the offensive, explosive style of play that fans and management expect is still missing.
In contrast, Stuttgart is running hot: The Swabians have collected 21 points and thus equalled the best start to the season since the championship year 2006/07.
Dortmund will nevertheless play offensively and hope that former Stuttgart star Serhou Guirassy, who scored 44 goals during his time for Stuttgart, will get back into the goalscoring mood.
VfB, on the other hand – as already mentioned – have won all of their last five league games against Dortmund and, supported by the strong form of Deniz Undav and Angelo Stiller, will be hoping for another surprise.
Dortmund Form Check
For Niko Kovac, this is the first real crisis since he took over at Dortmund in January. The 1-1 draw against Hamburg increased the pressure even more, as Borussia were unable to defend an important lead in the final minutes.
In particular, the defensive changes in the final phase and the coach’s rather pragmatic style of play caused criticism.
Dortmund is currently mixed on the pitch: With the eighth-best offense in the league and only 4.4 shots on goal per game, they are behind expectations in attack.
Although there have only been two defeats this season, against Bayern and Manchester City, both games made it clear that Dortmund have not yet arrived at the top European level.
At home, however, the team is still difficult to beat – since the Croatian took office, Dortmund have lost only two of their 14 Bundesliga games in their own stadium.
Stuttgart Form Check
Stuttgart has so far relied mainly on its home strength: Five wins from as many games, including the cup, have stabilised Sebastian Hoeneß’s team.
Before the international break, a brace from Deniz Undav ensured that Stuttgart climbed to third place – a result that hardly anyone would have expected in the summer.
After Nick Woltemade’s departure to Newcastle, the team needed some time to regroup, but recently things have been going well again: VfB have scored 13 goals in the last 7 games.
Now, however, they face a challenging away series: four games away from their own stadium, which end in December with the cup match in Bochum.
Stuttgart have already suffered four defeats away from home, but have also won against Cologne, Wolfsburg and Mainz and scored in all games – only in the away games in Basel and against Fenerbahce did they fail to score.
If the team manages to play in the next four matches without losing, Stuttgart could establish themselves as serious contenders for a strong second half of the season in Germany and Europe.
