Manchester City – Leeds Tip Premier League, Matchday 13 on Saturday, 29.11.2025 at 18:30 CET
A Manchester City Leeds bet can only lead to one result, and that is a home win for the Citizens, even if there have been two defeats in a row recently. The odds of just under 1.30 are anything but exhilarating, so I looked for an addition.
Us in the form of a goal by the top goalgetter. The bet on a victory for Manchester City and a goal by Erling Haaland brings me odds of just under 1.60 at Merkur Bets, a betting provider without tax.
The bookies could hardly take a clearer position. Anything other than a home win for the Citizens would be a big surprise. The corresponding double chance bet on a Leeds point win delivers a 4.00 without any odds boosts.
A draw brings betting odds of around 6.00, an away win for the promoted team means double-digit odds.
Man City vs Leeds AI predictions:
Our AI has also had its “thoughts”. In the last three seasons, Manchester City has a 100% record at home against promoted teams: ten games, ten wins against teams from the Championship. And all this with an impressive goal difference of 34:5. A clear indication that such duels are usually a rather one-sided affair for City.
Therefore, a handicap bet would also be a good idea. For example, you can earn betting odds of around 1.60 with a City win with HC -1, a home win with at least three goals difference brings the widespread 2.60 times the stake.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Win ManCity |
Draw |
Victory Leeds |
| 74.3% |
15.9% |
9.8% |
The Citizens are under absolute pressure to win against newly promoted Leeds United if the title dreams are to live on. The guests are currently in the relegation vortex, only the worse goal difference keeps West Ham just ahead of them. While the “Hammers” have recently been on the rise, Leeds have picked up just three points in the last six games.
Defensively, things are also looking bleak: Daniel Farke’s team has the third-worst away defence in the league – and has even conceded 5.58 more goals than expected, according to xG data. Means: poorly defended, but also extremely unlucky.
What you need to know about Manchester City Leeds betting
- Manchester City have won their last five home games in the Premier League, scoring 16 goals and conceding just two. No other team has been better in the same period.
- Leeds have the third-worst away defence in the league, although they have conceded more goals than would have been expected. According to xG data, the newly promoted team should have conceded 5.58 fewer goals; only Wolverhampton Wanderers have had more bad luck so far.
- According to our internal AI model, City have a win probability of over 74% and are expected to score more than two goals (2.35 xG). The hosts have scored three goals each in their last two league home games at the Etihad against Bournemouth (3-1) and Liverpool (3-0).
- Erling Haaland’s next goal for City would be his 100th in the Premier League. The Norwegian striker has played Leeds twice, scoring a brace at Elland Road in December 2022.
