Leverkusen – Dortmund Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 12 on Saturday, 29.11.2025 at 18:30 CET
Before Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund battle it out for a place in the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup, there will be a big dress rehearsal at the BayArena on Matchday 12 of the Bundesliga. Strictly speaking, however, the encounter is more than that.
After all, both teams are looking to cement their place in the top 4. A win against the direct competitor would be just right.
In my Leverkusen Dortmund tip, however, I don’t assume that anyone can actually be happy about three points in the end. Rather, I am targeting the draw bet at odds of around 3.75 at Merkur Bets.
Why do I bet on a draw? Simply because both teams are likely to meet at eye level on Saturday evening. Leverkusen have recently made the somewhat stronger impression and have the most accurate attack after Bayern.
Dortmund, on the other hand, has internalized Kovac’s football, is extremely efficient and has the second-best defense in the league after Bayern. Accordingly, there can be no real favorite for the duel. The draw is a good idea.
Leverkusen – Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips
Bayer Leverkusen have only failed to score in the 3-0 defeat against Bayern so far this season. Accordingly, my first tip alternative is to bet “Both teams to score” at odds around 1.50. The fact that BVB recently failed to score against Fluminense at the Club World Cup (0-0) fits into the picture all too well.
In any case, it remains to be said that Borussia will not be beaten in passing this season. The only two defeats of the season were against Bayern and Manchester City. The “Double Chance X2” is therefore definitely worth considering at odds of about 1.55 at German bookmakers.
Since I expect a very close confrontation, the bet “draw at half-time” also comes into play. With odds around 2.30, you can get weak.
What you need to know about Leverkusen vs. Dortmund betting
- Since Kasper Hjulmand has been head coach, Leverkusen have lost only two of their 15 competitive games – against Bayern and PSG. The Werkself have won nine of those 15 games, averaging 2.13 goals per game.
- Niko Kovac’s team has the second-best defence in the Bundesliga and concedes only 0.91 goals per game. In addition, Dortmund has the second-best “Expected Goals Against” value in the league after eleven matchdays with 11.04 xGA.
- In six of the eleven Bundesliga games in 2025/26 involving Borussia Dortmund (55%), the bet was “both teams to score – no”, including three of the six away games.
- The 20-year-old Ibrahim Maza has been a regular in Leverkusen’s starting line-up in recent weeks. The young midfielder scored twice in the last home game against Heidenheim and also provided an assist in the win over Manchester City.
Leverkusen – Dortmund: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model won’t miss the top match between Bayer and BVB. Accordingly, you can look forward to a Leverkusen Dortmund AI prediction.
Right at the beginning, the digital brain takes full risks and bets on an outcome bet. The “1:1 draw” is also one of my favorite results and makes it to odds around 7.70. For the back of the mind: For the bookmakers, it is the most likely outcome.
The AI also has a player bet up its sleeve. “Patrik Schick scores” is quoted at just under 2.00 and is an excellent choice even without a sports betting odds boost.
The Czech is also a reliable player this season and currently has five goals this season. Good to know: Schick is also safe from the penalty spot and has already scored two goals from the penalty spot (on two attempts).
As a third tip, the AI throws the goal bet “Dortmund over 1.5 goals” into the room. Yes, BVB often play conservatively, but always have top chances. No coincidence: In the Champions League, only PSG have scored more goals (19) than BVB (17) after five matchdays.
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. Dortmund
The odds for Leverkusen against Dortmund give the hosts a slight advantage, even if the duel on the 1×2 market is considered extremely close. The Leverkusen odds imply a chance of victory of about 40%, while Dortmund’s odds correspond to a probability of almost 35% for an away win.
The current pricing shows that Borussia Dortmund would be the slight favourite on neutral ground if the home advantage is excluded.
The Asian Handicap line was set at 0.0. This handicap is only used for games that the bookmakers consider difficult to predict. If the match ends in a draw, all stakes in Asian Handicap 0.0 are fully refunded.
The bookmakers have set the Asian goal line at over/under 3.0 goals. If exactly three goals are scored, the entire stake is also returned. If you bet on “Over”, you need four or more goals to win the bet.
Dortmund is one of only five Bundesliga teams to have an average of less than 3.0 total goals per game after 90 minutes. After eleven games, BVB have scored 2.64 goals per 90 minutes.
Serhou Guirassy is the favourite to score at any point in the game. Similar to Harry Kane at Bayern Munich, Guirassy is regularly listed as the most likely goalscorer in Bundesliga matches.
At Leverkusen, Patrik Schick – five goals and two assists so far – is the player with the lowest rate of scoring a home goal in the Leverkusen vs. Dortmund clash.
Leverkusen vs Dortmund Match Analysis:
Leverkusen go into this weekend’s clash with one point and one place ahead of Dortmund in the table.
Tactically, the game promises a lot. Leverkusen’s attack has gained significantly in power under Kasper Hjulmand: Since he took office, the team has scored an average of 2.43 goals in home games across all competitions. On Saturday, however, they will face the second most stable defence in the Bundesliga.
In this duel, Leverkusen held 62% possession last season and also won the xG duel. However, Dortmund are no longer as efficient as they used to be – relying exclusively on counterattacks would therefore be a risky approach for Niko Kovac.
Leverkusen are behind Dortmund at field tilt, which is why BVB are likely to have a lot of ball contacts in dangerous zones. However, it is unlikely that the guests will take control of the game over longer phases.
Dortmund have scored in all six Bundesliga away games this season, while Leverkusen have kept three consecutive league clean sheets at home.
BVB have also kept a clean sheet in 50% of their Bundesliga away games. In a league that is often characterized by risky attacking play, it is precisely this defensive stability that could tip the scales in the end.
Leverkusen form check
Bayer Leverkusen go into this game with confidence: The Werkself have won five competitive games in a row, most recently a 2-0 away win at Manchester City in the Champions League on Tuesday evening.
Since Kasper Hjulmand took over, Leverkusen have lost only two of their 15 competitive games – against Bayern and PSG.
Bayer 04 have won nine of these games, averaging 2.13 goals per game.
Since the last defeat, Leverkusen have scored 12 goals in four games.
Ibrahim Maza has been a regular in the starting line-up in recent weeks. The young midfielder scored twice in the last home game against Heidenheim and also provided an assist in the win over Manchester City.
Despite a turbulent start to the season, as a result of which Erik ten Hag was sacked after just three competitive games, Leverkusen are in third place in the Bundesliga – mainly thanks to their strong attack: 27 Bundesliga goals have been scored so far, only Bayern have scored more.
Dortmund Form Check
Niko Kovac led the team directly to a place in the top four after taking over last season – and the team is carrying this momentum through the current season. Dortmund have only suffered one defeat in the Bundesliga and are currently in fourth place.
Defensively, BVB is extremely stable: On average, the team concedes only 0.91 goals per game – the second-best figure in the league. The expected goals against statistics (xGA) is also the second best in the league.
Dortmund allow the second fewest shots on goal in the Bundesliga, an average of 10.27 per game and thus well below the league average of 13.27.
However, there is room for improvement in the offensive game. In the xG ranking (expected goals), the team is in fifth place. Seven teams have already scored more goals than BVB in the league – so the conversion of chances and the quality of the shots must improve.
The lack of efficiency in attack also means that Dortmund have only ended four of their previous eleven league games with a draw
As a rule, however, BVB controls what is happening. The value for “Field Tilt”, which measures territorial dominance, is 60.02 and thus at the third highest level in the Bundesliga.
