Mainz – Gladbach Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 13 on Friday, 05.12.2025 at 20:30 CET
The Foals are on the rise again and their saviour, Haris Tabakovic, seems to be on the verge of his next Bundesliga goal, according to our digital data model!
Based on my own considerations, however, I will rather put a Mainz Gladbach tip to the test at a German betting provider that simply sees Borussia winning.
With huge Gladbach odds of about 2.75 for an away three-pointer, I hit it all the more. Especially since the opponent, bottom of the table Mainz, has lost seven of its last nine home games and had to endure a whopping 2.33 goals per appearance!
Even the dismissal of Bo Henriksen, which drags on like chewing gum, does not dissuade me from an assessment. Although FSV will probably benefit from the reshuffle in the medium term, the Foals have enough anger in their stomachs after the cup exit to win this game against Rheinhessen, who are still somewhat disoriented.
In the carnival city, good advice is extremely expensive these days. Because the zero-fives are sinking deeper and deeper into the relegation zone from matchday to matchday.
Meanwhile, the direct comparison gives hope with regard to Friday – in addition to the cup setback suffered by the Foals.
After all, M05 have not lost any of their last nine direct duels against Gladbach’s Borussia, even if the truth is that the Rheinhessen are no longer playing as well as they have in recent years …
Mainz – Gladbach Prediction & Betting Tips
Haris Tabakovic meets is strictly speaking a suggestion from our AI, but almost everyone would have come up with it themselves. Because the Borussia striker is currently scoring from all positions.
However, I take the odds of about 2.82 for a goal with a kiss on the hand, as he already has seven goals in eleven Bundesliga games. On average, about one goal every 102 minutes of play – that’s something to be proud of.
Furthermore, I also like the combination “Sieg Gladbach & Tabakovic scores” at odds around 4.90 at any good betting provider without tax, or possibly with! Because Borussia will in all likelihood actually win, and I have the feeling that Tabakovic will play a major role in that.
What you need to know about Mainz vs. Gladbach betting
- Mainz have lost seven of their last nine domestic games and conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game, 1.66 more than they scored.
- Gladbach leaves the initiative to the opponents, with the third-fewest pressing sequences (8.82) and the fourth-most passes allowed per defensive action (16.4 PPDA).
- In the last five direct duels, 16 goals have been scored (average: 3.2). “Both Teams Score – Yes” won in four of those five matches.
- Haris Tabakovic (Gladbach) scored seven goals in eleven Bundesliga appearances (one goal every 102 minutes). Since the 3-0 defeat against Bayern, he has scored seven goals in seven games for club and country.
Mainz – Gladbach: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Mainz Gladbach AI prediction has come up with a lot of ideas and presented me with several ideas, most of which are open doors for me.
For example, “Gladbach: Over 1.5 goals” at values of about 2.20 without an additional odds boost. A brace from the Rhinelanders is very possible, given the fact that Mainz has the third-worst xGA value in the Bundesliga (22.01).
The way things stand and Mainz has already defended against Freiburg (0:4), the defense could swim similarly this time.
Gladbach wins to nil to odds around 2.22 is a suggestion that also appeals to me. Personally, I even expect a 2-0 win for Borussia.
In both betting scenarios, the zero-fivers also do not score a goal because they have already played the most league-wide appearances of the current Bundesliga season without scoring a goal of their own (6).
Half-time/full-time score X/2 is another promising betting manoeuvre at odds of around 6.50. This statistically sound bet is based on the fact that Gladbach games have already been drawn six times at half-time this season – a league high!
I expect Borussia to start tightening the thumbscrews after the change of sides anyway.
The best odds for Mainz vs. Gladbach
Let’s take a look at how the bookmakers assess the situation for the Mainz Gladbach odds – because the numbers point to a duel that is open and can tip in either direction.
A home win by Mainz is currently valued at 2.45. This is a rate that shows: the market recognizes competitive conditions, but by no means a reliable scenario. Mainz gets respect, but the bookies doubt consistency and offensive penetration.
The draw is 3.50. This value is a classic expression of “balanced, but not preferred”: The providers expect phases in which both teams could neutralize each other without much risk in the build-up to the game.
Gladbach’s success is priced at 2.75. With this, the bookmakers even concede slight advantages to the guests (if the away factor is excluded) – not necessarily in stability, but rather in individual moments, playfulness and tactical flexibility.
The Mainz Gladbach odds thus describe a match that can tip in several directions – with a marginal lead for the zero-fives, but without the courage to make a clear prediction.
Mainz vs Gladbach Match Analysis:
Mainz will try to prevent another early implosion, as they did recently in Freiburg, but again the game could tip over early.
Gladbach have led in three of the last four Bundesliga games before the break and will actively look for the early momentum.
Mainz is likely to generate more possession because they are much stronger in terms of pitch pitch in a league comparison, but this optical preponderance does not necessarily mean control – rather, unstructured ball losses could lead to dangerous Gladbach transition moments.
The guests are the third-best team in the league in terms of counter-attacking goals – and against an opponent with the third-highest xGA value in the Bundesliga, this plan could work out perfectly.
In the second half, the game could become more open because Mainz has to invest offensively.
FSV are still waiting for their first home game without conceding a goal and know that a reactive game at home will not be enough – therefore more risk, more personnel in front of the ball, but also more space for Gladbach.
Polanski’s side have generated a higher xG than their opponents in four of their last five games, averaging 2.21 per game – a figure that suggests they can create chances even from a lack of control.
If Mainz comes out of the break well, it will be wild, but structurally this matchup suits Gladbach better: less ball, more efficiency, better transition.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz is even deeper in the mess after the next debacle. The 4-0 defeat in Freiburg was not only the second slap of this kind in a few weeks, but also a game in which Mainz looked without a chance from the start.
Freiburg led 2-0 after 26 minutes and the sending off against Nebel shortly afterwards destroyed any remaining plan. 23:1 shots on goal and 75% possession for the opponent show you how far Mainz is currently from Bundesliga level.
The defeat has sporting and structural consequences. Mainz are bottom of the table and the pressure is growing in the club, similar to Gladbach, to make a change of coach.
Bo Henriksen was almost logically dismissed, so that now youth coach Benjamin Hoffman temporarily wields the scepter as interim. In addition, there is the burden from Europe: After the 1-0 defeat at Craiova, there were whistles from their own camp, and the frustration continues to build.
Interesting: according to Expected Points, Mainz should actually be in 14th place and would therefore be more comfortable on the road than the table suggests.
Nevertheless, the bookmakers now see Mainz as a clear relegation candidate and put them as the fourth most likely contender for the move to League Two.
For you, this means that the performances are not as catastrophic as the results – but the dynamics are currently extremely dangerous.
Gladbach form check
Gladbach didn’t completely lose their run, but the 0-0 draw against Leipzig still felt like a missed opportunity for many fans. The following 2-1 defeat in the cup against FC St. Pauli made for quite long faces again.
Honorat’s supposed winning goal against RB was conceded after an extremely narrow VAR intervention – and even with umpteen slow motions it was not clear.
Despite the recent setbacks, the team can be satisfied. They are now unbeaten in four Bundesliga games and have picked up 10 points in this period – exactly as many as Bayern and Heidenheim.
The last Bundesliga defeat was against Bayern at the end of October, and since then Gladbach have looked more stable, both defensively and mentally.
It will be exciting to see how pragmatic the Foals are away from home. There has been only one defeat in the last four away games, plus victories against St. Pauli and Heidenheim and a solid 1-1 draw in Leverkusen.
Offensively, they perform relatively well on target with 16 goals at just under 17 xG, but defensively they allow an average of 1.49 xGA – so no concrete, but controlled risk.
The numbers clearly show that they often let their opponents do what they want: Gladbach is one of the teams with the fewest pressing sequences, and Borussia allow their opponents over 16 passes per defensive action, which is one of the highest figures in the league.
In addition, there was the cup exit against St. Pauli during the week, which could become a tactical and physical factor.
