Atalanta – Chelsea Prediction Champions League, Matchday 6 on Tuesday, 09/12/2025 at 21:00 CET
My goodness, now my favorite team has even helped Verona to their first win of the season. After recent encouraging results, this is a bitter setback.
Since I love tax-free betting at least as much as successful football betting, I am forced to take the side of the English as part of my Atalanta Bergamo Chelsea prediction – and you should do the same.
Bergamo have yet to find themselves under Palladino, but on Tuesday they will face an outstanding squad that spreads fear and terror even far away from Stamford Bridge.
The Blues scored an average of 2.4 Champions League goals in the first five matchdays. This promises a long evening for the Italians.
I wouldn’t see the fact that the Blues have recently disappointed several times away from home in the Champions League as an obstacle to my bet, but as an additional incentive. Because Enzo Maresca’s team wants to put an end to this series with all their might.
After the 3-1 defeat against Bayern and the disappointing 2-2 draw against Qarabag, the Italian wants to avoid becoming only the third Chelsea coach not to win his first three away games in this competition!
Before him, only Andre Villas-Boas (2011-12) and Luiz Felipe Scolari (2008-09) achieved this “feat”.
Atalanta – Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips
The selection 2nd half: Atalanta over 0.5 goals at values around 1.78 is reasonable even without an additional bet-at-home odds boost.
The first half could belong to the English, while Bergamo still do some result cosmetics after the break. In any case, the hosts scored all six Champions League goals in 2025/26 only after the change of sides – so that fits perfectly into the picture.
A half-time full-time bet based on the Chelsea/Chelsea pattern at odds around 3.30 is an alternative suggestion that convinces me to the same extent, as it would ideally fit the outlined course of the game.
What you need to know about Atalanta vs Chelsea betting
- Atalanta has the ninth lowest shot conversion rate this Champions League season at 7.69%.
- Chelsea have had an average of 60% possession in the four Champions League games since the defeat at the Allianz Arena.
- This is the first Champions League home game this season in which Atalanta starts as outsiders. The Italians started the two previous home games (2-1 against Brugge, 0-0 against Slavia Prague) as favourites.
- Estevao is scoring a goal every 103 minutes on average this Champions League season and has scored in Chelsea’s last three European games.
Atalanta Bergamo – Chelsea: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Now that we’ve devoted ourselves to my own betting ideas, let’s take a look at the Atalanta Bergamo Chelsea AI predictions of our data model, which I’ll evaluate directly for you.
“Estevao scores” is the player bet at odds around 2.57, which our AI bettor names right in the first place.
At first glance, this seems to make sense, as the Brazilian scores an average of every 103 minutes in this competition. However, his performances in the Premier League were rather disappointing after the goal against Barca.
My verdict: You can do it, but you don’t have to.
Furthermore, our AI also advocates high-scoring bets. It equally recommends the Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams Score options, which are available on the markets at odds of approximately 1.70 each.
In fact, these are two very reasonable proposals – and for several reasons:
In their two Champions League home games, the Bergamo team scored an average xG value of 2.5, while the strong English side scored at least one goal in each of their last 19 competitive games. Consequently, I would be very surprised about a 0:0!
The best odds for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Chelsea
Let’s take a look at the Atalanta Bergamo Chelsea odds and the bookmakers’ assessment: A duel that seems balanced at first glance, but reveals interesting nuances on closer inspection.
A home win by Atalanta is currently rated at 3.40. The markets see the Italians as outsiders, but they do have chances, especially through home advantage, quick transitions and set pieces.
The quota signals: Success is possible, but by no means the expected scenario.
The draw is 3.50. The bookmakers are thus calculating a close, tactical game in which both teams could rely on safety for a long time. It is considered an equivalent option, but not the most likely outcome.
For an away win of Chelsea there is a 2.10. The bookmakers see the Blues as slight favourites – thanks to individual quality, European experience and tactical stability.
At the same time, the odds show that Chelsea will not necessarily control the game and Atalanta can set pinpricks at any time.
Atalanta vs Chelsea Match Analysis:
Chelsea have had significantly more possession in the Champions League since the defeat in Munich, averaging 60%, while Atalanta only has around 48%.
The home side will therefore lose the ball more often, which allows Chelsea to control the game. Maresca relies on patience and keeps the chances manageable – the last games were only 22.2 shots per game, the third fewest in the league phase.
Nevertheless, Chelsea is anything but harmless offensively: 10 goals in the last three games show that creativity does not suffer despite the focus on defense.
Atalanta, on the other hand, are confident against Chelsea: The 3-0 win in Frankfurt under Palladino with five clear chances proves that they can take advantage of big moments.
Chelsea must therefore be careful that quick counter-attacks and set pieces do not make the difference. The Blues will try to control the ball and rhythm, but Atalanta can set pinpricks at any time.
I’m expecting a game in which Chelsea set the tone, but the home side create excitement through efficiency and courageous actions – chances on both sides are likely.
Atalanta Bergamo Form Check
The change of coach at Atalanta has paid off so far: Under Raffaele Palladino, the team won two of the first three Champions League games.
In particular, the 3-0 away win in Frankfurt catapulted Atalanta to tenth place, just outside the top eight that qualify for the direct round of 16.
After the opening defeat against PSG (0-4), the team reacted confidently with three important victories, including 2-1 against Club Brugge, 1-0 in Marseille and the 3-0 in Germany against Eintracht.
A draw against Chelsea would further increase the chances of qualifying for the round of 16, especially since Athletic Bilbao and Union SG are two feasible opponents in January.
Offensively, things are not yet going well for Atalanta: With 10.19 xG, they are in seventh place, but the conversion of chances is weak – only 7.69% conversion rate.
The Bergamo team also remained goalless against Slavia Prague despite good chances. Defensively, Atalanta shows strong values: 1.39 xGA per game, most of the opponents’ shots come from outside the penalty area.
In addition, the recent 3-1 defeat against Verona in Serie A was a real imposition. If my favourite team continues like this on Tuesday against Chelsea, then I’ll switch after the first half!
Chelsea Form Check
Chelsea are currently in strong form: A 3-0 win against Barcelona and a 1-1 draw against Arsenal, although outnumbered for over an hour, make it clear that Enzo Maresca’s young team has serious ambitions of qualifying directly for the round of 16.
However, two slip-ups in Europe – 3-1 against Bayern and 2-2 at Qarabag – also show that every point has to be fought hard for. There are currently 10 points in the table, more than expected after xG (7.5), which would put Chelsea in 14th place.
The upcoming games are crucial: A home game against Pafos and an away game at Napoli in the last round will provide important points.
Predictions see Chelsea in seventh place after eight matchdays, just one point ahead of Atalanta. Offensively, the team looks assertive, defensively stable, even if there is still room for improvement.
With clever pressing, young talents and tactical flexibility, the Blues want to secure their place in the top eight and qualify for the knockout rounds – the game in Bergamo will therefore point the way forward.
