PSV Eindhoven – Atletico Madrid Tip Champions League, Matchday 6 on Tuesday, 09/12/2025 at 21:00 CET
These Dutchmen are out of control. First they smash the SSC, then they shut down the Reds’ slot machine – and now they could also cause problems for the Rojiblancos.
My PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid tip is primarily based on goals, but does not rule out the possibility that the home side could have the upper hand again.
In any case, the conditions for capitalizing on this on the betting markets are excellent – and not only because a bet-at-home odds boost ensures more lavish profits.
Rather, the “Boeren” are once again underestimated, because the PSV odds of about 4.20 reflect an outsider role, which I personally do not see as such.
I maintain that PSV has a chance. However, I can’t blame the data- and statistics-loving bookmakers for favoring the guests.
Only against Celtic (8) and Lokomotiv Moscow (7) have Atletico Madrid played more games without defeat in European competition than against PSV (4 wins, 2 draws).
In addition, the Rojiblancos are still unbeaten against Dutch teams in the Champions League in the current century: six wins in eight games (2 draws), including four successes in a row – two against PSV in 2016/17 and two against Feyenoord in 2023/24.
PSV Eindhoven – Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips
Which personal PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid tip do I have on my wish list? For example: Over 3.5 goals at odds around 2.35.
A bit brave, I know. But did you know that the last seven Champions League games of the Dutch have averaged 5.29 goals per game? So it could also be a lively spectacle against Atletico.
And that’s exactly why I chose not only tax-free betting, but also the selection 2+ goals: PSV at attractive odds of about 2.15.
Because what these devils have already achieved against Napoli and Liverpool, they can now also do at home against Simeone’s team.
What you need to know about PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid betting
- PSV are winless in six meetings with Atletico Madrid (2 draws, 4 losses). Atletico is thus the opponent against whom PSV has played most often in Europe without winning.
- PSV scored just one goal in six Champions League games against Atletico Madrid. Only Bruges against Dortmund (0 goals in 5 games) has a worse goal ratio against an opponent in the CL.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in six games against PSV (W4 D2). Only against Celtic and Lokomotiv Moscow did Atletico play more often in Europe without losing.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in the Champions League against Dutch opponents this century (W6 D2), and have won the last four meetings in a row.
- 13 of Atletico Madrid’s last 17 CL victories have been achieved at home. Atletico won the last six home games in a row in the CL, but lost the last three away games.
PSV Eindhoven – Atletico Madrid: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid AI prediction has brought me up with some generated recommendations that I have considered myself.
Especially the selection: Both make at odds around 1.50 is highly recommended by our data model – and guess what? I didn’t choose it myself as an additional option for no reason!
Surprisingly, this condition has been met again and again in each of the Dutch’s last 11 Champions League appearances.
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals at odds of about 1.72 also has hand and foot – especially from a statistical point of view. In 7 of the last 8 competitive games of the Spaniards, at least one goal was scored after the 75th minute.
Personally, I think that it will not be just one goal in this time window.
Julian Alvarez hits and Antoine Griezmann hits are trading in the markets at separate odds of pretty much exactly 2.30 each and are likewise computer-generated suggestions that deserve attention.
Both players together have scored 68% of all Champions League goals scored by the Madrid team since the beginning of last season.
Best odds for PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid
The PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid odds reflect a classic duel of favourites and outsider chances, with the markets clearly rewarding the Spanish experience.
A home win for PSV is priced at 4.20. The bookmakers clearly see the Dutch in the underdog role, but give them chances through offensive pressure, home advantage and set pieces.
The odds signal that a surprise success is possible, but anything but likely.
The draw is 3.90. The providers calculate a scenario in which PSV acts courageously, but Atletico remains defensively stable and keeps the game close for a long time – a realistic but not favoured result.
For an away win of Atletico Madrid there is 1.60. The bookmakers see the Rojiblancos as clear favourites: tactical discipline, European experience and individual quality should make the difference.
Nevertheless, the game remains open enough not to completely write off the underdog.
Overall, the PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid odds paint a market picture that sees Atletico ahead, but PSV offers enough value for the brave – especially on clever counterattacks or a close game.
PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid Match Analysis:
From the beginning, the Dutch take the reins. PSV does not retreat, but looks for the gaps in the centre early on – Joey Veerman as a creative engine distributes the balls like on an assembly line.
Again and again deep to Ismael Saibari, who unsettled the Spaniards, while the flanks put pressure on and Atletico started to brood after a few minutes.
The Rojiblancos look unusually nervous away from home, lose duels and have to be careful that the Dutch midfield axis does not completely dictate the game.
Dangerous combinations are created again and again, and the fans feel that a surprise victory is quite possible here.
Atletico tries to fight back, but away from home the team looks surprisingly vulnerable. PSV makes clever use of the uncertainty: wingers dribble, Veerman looks for the open spaces, and dangerous shots are created again and again.
The Spaniards barely manage to stabilize the ranks, while the Dutch are increasingly gaining self-confidence. Nevertheless, Atletico is bravely countering with the experience from many European Cup battles, trying to set pinpricks and relying on counterattacks.
But PSV remains attentive, covers the spaces and sets their own attacks. In the end, there is an exciting 2-2 or 3-3, in which the Dutch were in control – a point that feels like a victory.
PSV Eindhoven Form Check
PSV recently delivered one of the strongest international performances in recent years with a 4-1 win at Liverpool and remains in the race for the round of 16 with two wins, two draws and one defeat.
The Dutch are currently in impressive form, are unbeaten in 14 competitive games (W11 D3) and have won the last five of them.
They had already impressively demonstrated their offensive strength in the 6-2 win against Napoli.
The home record in the Champions League also speaks in PSV’s favour: only two defeats from the last twelve home games (6 wins, 4 draws) indicate that the “Boeren” are difficult to stop in Eindhoven.
Nevertheless, the squad still lacks quality in attack: Ruben van Bommel, Ivan Perisic and Alassane Plea already missed the 2-0 against Heerenveen, which increases the pressure on the remaining attacking forces.
Nevertheless, the home strength in combination with the current winning streak should be enough to challenge Atletico’s Paradas.
PSV must work above all on possession control and quick transition moments in order to put the guests under pressure early on and confirm the momentum from the season so far.
Atletico Madrid form check
Atletico remains a team for dramatic moments: The 2-1 victory over Inter Milan on matchday five only came in injury time and shows that they are often dependent on late goals in the Champions League.
The Madrileños have a total of three wins and two defeats to their name, but are in an unstable phase of form after losing twice in a row, including the defeat against Athletic Bilbao (0-1).
Their away record is also worrying, with an average of three goals conceded per game in their last three UCL away games and a point without a point.
Atletico are missing a lot in terms of personnel: Alex Baena, Jose María Gimenez and Marcos Llorente are unlikely to be available, which weakens both the defence and the midfield.
Coach Simeone must tactically tighten the team and keep it compact in order not to come under immediate pressure against the Dutch, who are strong at home.
Despite the personnel and formal challenges, they can continue to be a dangerous opponent with experience, set pieces and counter-attacking strength.
