Athletic – PSG Tip Champions League, Matchday 6 on Wednesday, 10.12.2025 at 21:00 CET
On matchday 6 of the Champions League, Paris Saint-Germain will be looking to claim their fifth win and cement their place in the top 8. And in fact, the chances of this could be worse. After all, opponents Athletic Bilbao have been playing a weak CL season up to this point and go into the game as outsiders despite home advantage.
For the Spaniards, it has long been a matter of sporting survival in the premier class. With only four points, they are outside the playoff places after five completed matchdays and basically cannot afford another setback against the French.
Due to the immense qualitative difference, however, I target the bet “Win Paris” at odds around 1.60 at NEO.bet in my Athletic PSG tip. In the end, the quota is too good to be ignored.
Bilbao lacks penetration in attack in the Champions League. If you only have four goals after five matchdays, you don’t have to be surprised if the playoffs are missed.
Against PSG, however, the focus should be on the defense of the Spaniards anyway. With 19 goals, Paris have the best attack in the Champions League and are likely to set their sights on the next shooting festival after the recent 5-0 win in the league against Stade Rennes.
Athletic – PSG Prediction & Betting
I can’t quite understand the odds for the match between Athletic Bilbao and PSG. So I personally see the French in the much more pronounced role of favorites.
As the first tip alternative, I therefore bring “Paris over 1.5 goals” into play at what I consider to be an excellent odd around 1.65. For the back of the mind: Paris has scored an average of just under four goals per game in the Champions League so far.
Since I can also imagine that Bilbao is overwhelmed by the offensive power of the French from the start, I also recommend “PSG leads at half-time”. The odds are around 2.15 and justify the risk in my view.
Also interesting is the goal bet “Over 2.5 goals” at odds around 1.80. I expect some PSG goals, but not necessarily a clean sheet. A 3-1 or 4-1 win for the French is quite realistic.
What you need to know about Athletic vs. PSG betting
- Ernesto Valverde’s team has won only one game in the league phase so far – at home against Qarabag. Athletic Bilbao suffered defeats against Arsenal, Newcastle and Dortmund and drew away to Slavia Prague.
- PSG are the most dangerous team in the Champions League phase, scoring an average of 3.8 goals per game – 0.4 more than Dortmund, the second most successful attack in the competition.
- It is not surprising that Paris is listed as the clear favorite in the 1×2 market (implied chance of victory: 62%). The club has already won 13 Champions League games in 2025 – more than any other team in a calendar year in the history of the competition.
- In the market for “goalscorer at any time”, ten PSG players are priced lower than Athletic Bilbao’s top candidate Gorka Guruzeta. Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele is considered the hottest contender for a goal in this game.
Athletic – PSG: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model will not miss the Champions League final in 2025. Accordingly, the digital brain serves you three more tip alternatives in its Athletic PSG AI prediction.
Just like me, the AI expects a clear thing in favor of the Parisians. The bet “Win PSG with Asian Handicap -1” is solidly valued at about 1.90 by bookmakers with a German license. The fact that Bilbao recently lost 3-0 to Real Madrid and PSG was able to celebrate a thumping victory against Rennes sets the direction.
The second selection of AI is also worth considering. “PSG win & both teams score” seems dangerous at first due to the weak Bilbao offensive.
However, the home advantage and the fact that Paris has conceded eight goals in five preliminary round games justifies the bet. By the way, the odds of about 3.25 are impressive even without Winamax odds boost.
The tip “Bilbao over 0.5 goals” at odds of about 1.55 takes the same line. At home, the Spaniards can at least be expected to score a goal of honour, even if it is not enough for any points in the end.
The best odds for Athletic vs. PSG
The odds for Athletic Bilbao against PSG see the guests in the 1×2 market as favorites. According to bookmakers, PSG goes into the game with a 62% chance of winning. Athletic Bilbao’s odds in the 1×2 market correspond to a 17% probability of a home win.
It is not surprising that Paris are favourites: the club has already won 13 Champions League games in 2025 – more than any other team in the history of the competition within a calendar year.
In the Asian handicap market, PSG starts with a handicap of -1.0. To win, the Parisians must win by at least two goals. If PSG wins by just one goal, stakes on the -1.0 handicap will be fully refunded.
The Asian goal line is over/under 2.75 goals. “Under” bets will earn full profit if a maximum of two goals are scored in this match. However, no team has scored more often this Champions League season than PSG (19), aided by the five goals in the most recent clash with Tottenham.
In the market for “anytime goalscorer”, ten PSG players are priced lower than Athletic Bilbao’s best candidate, Gorka Guruzeta. Ousmane Dembele leads the market: He is considered the favourite to score in this match – despite odds in the plus range.
Athletic vs PSG Match Analysis:
PSG usually dominates the game – even in the Champions League. Luis Enrique’s team has an average of 66% possession, the highest value in the league phase. Athletic Bilbao, on the other hand, are only 47%, which is why the pressure is mainly to be expected from the away team.
Les Parisiens also create a number of chances and remain anything but passive with the ball. PSG have averaged 20.4 shots per game this Champions League season and have scored 19 goals.
Athletic Bilbao concede 0.08 goals per game more than the average of the league phase – so Ernesto Valverde will have to adjust his defence particularly well.
Despite the absence of Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé due to injury, the Paris attack remains extremely dangerous. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bradley Barcola present themselves extremely dynamic. Position changes and high intensity in pressing are likely to make it difficult for Bilbao to withstand this attacking pressure.
With PSG expected to control possession, set-pieces could be one of the few chances for Athletic Bilbao.
However, Enrique’s side have only allowed 2.8 corners per game this Champions League season – and Bilbao have only scored a single goal from a stationary ball in the league phase.
Athletic Form Check
Athletic Club have lost just two of their last six games – to Barcelona and Real Madrid, who currently occupy first and second place in La Liga.
Ernesto Valverde’s team kept a clean sheet in each of their remaining four games in the league and Champions League, most recently celebrating a 1-0 win over Atlético Madrid, which moved them up to seventh place in the table.
In the Champions League, however, the record is much weaker: the only win was a 3-1 home win against Qarabag, and the only game without conceding a goal was a 0-0 draw in Prague.
This goalless draw is not uncommon for coach Valverde, who has kept 19 clean sheets in 47 Champions League games so far in his career.
Only two Spanish coaches – Rafael Benítez (39) and Pep Guardiola (47) – have reached the mark of 20 clean sheets in less than 50 Champions League games.
Only Villarreal, Ajax and Slavia Prague (all 4) have failed to score more often this Champions League season than Athletic Club (3), who have failed to score in their last two games. According to expected points, Athletic Bilbao would have to be in 15th place and fight for a playoff place.
The reason for this is that the team has scored 2.66 fewer goals than the xG model would suggest and has the fourth-worst efficiency in the competition with a completion rate of only 6.45%.
Bilbao is also unlucky defensively: the team conceded 4.25 more goals than the xGA values forecast – the fourth largest negative value in the Champions League.
PSG Form Check
PSG currently occupies second place in Ligue 1 and has lost two league games this season – both away with 0:1 against Marseille and Monaco. In the 2024/25 season, the Parisians suffered a total of only two defeats in domestic competition.
In Europe, they have four wins and one home defeat against Bayern.
PSG are second in their group with 12 points and are currently projected to be third in the league stage, with an 88.14% chance of qualifying for a direct progression to the round of 16.
In the 2024/25 season, PSG had only four points after five Champions League games, but then won the last three games of the league phase. PSG have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight away games in all competitions – a 3-0 win over Brest on 25 October.
In the Champions League, on the other hand, the team is outstanding this year: With 13 wins, PSG has won more Champions League games in 2025 than any other team ever in a calendar year.
With 51 goals in 2025, PSG also scored 13 more goals than any other team in a single year in top European football. In the current Champions League season, Paris leads both goal (19) and shot (102) statistics.
However, the expected goals (xG) record indicates that PSG should have scored only 11.81 goals. The overperformance of +7.19 goals is only surpassed by Borussia (+7.42). The Parisians’ closing rate is currently 18.63% – the sixth-best value in the competition.
Since his Champions League debut for PSG on February 11 this year, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been involved in nine goals (5 goals, 4 assists) – only four players have more goal involvements in the same period.
Vitinha has been directly involved in six goals (4 goals, 2 assists) in his last six Champions League appearances for PSG.
