Bayern – Mainz Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 14 on Sunday, 14.12.2025 at 17:30 CET
At the moment I am still looking for a suitable odds boost to make my Bayern Mainz tip even more profitable. What this should look like, on the other hand, has been clear for a long time.
I firmly expect that Lennart Karl will most likely outwit the zero-fivers with a wonderful curler into the far corner.
The teenager is the ideal candidate for a goal bet, as he has averaged 3.85 shots per 90 minutes in all his appearances for the record champions so far.
And you know what? That’s a higher figure than that of his teammates Olise, Gnabry and Jackson. So don’t be surprised if he strikes again this time.
This is really interesting historically! Because Mainz 05, at the bottom of the table, will meet leaders FC Bayern Munich – the first time since February 2022 that a Bundesliga bottom team travels to Bayern (Greuther Fürth at the time).
In 46 comparable Bundesliga duels, the lower-placed team has only won twice: 1 FC Saarbrücken against 1 FC Cologne in January 1964 and Fortuna Düsseldorf against Bayer 04 Leverkusen in August 1996.
Bayern – Mainz Prediction & Betting
How many personal Bayern Mainz tips do you want to hear? Because I probably have half a dozen suggestions in store, all of which should please the FCB fans among you! It was supposed to go in one direction from the beginning.
2+ goals: I really like Harry Kane at odds of about 2.57. Because in addition to “Charlemagne”, the Englishman was also supposed to net. He is in the necessary shape anyway, as he recently scored his 10th Bundesliga hat-trick against VfB.
Half-time/final score 1/1 at values around 1.42 doesn’t make you a millionaire overnight, but I would be really surprised if the vulnerable Mainz defense hadn’t conceded one or two goals at half-time.
What you need to know about Bayern vs. Mainz betting
- FC Bayern Munich picked up 37 points in the first 13 Bundesliga games. This is an equalling of their own record from the 2015/16 season.
- Mainz have the weakest offense with 11 goals and the fewest shots on goal (34) in this Bundesliga season. Nevertheless, they have the third most touches of the ball in the opponent’s penalty area (28 per game), behind Leipzig (31) and Bayern (38).
- Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 22 Bundesliga games (W18 D4). Our internal forecasting model gives FC Bayern a 99.5% chance of winning the championship title.
- Lennart Karl averages 3.85 shots on goal per 90 minutes in all competitions, which is more than several top players and close to Harry Kane’s figure of 3.99.
Bavaria – Mainz: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
24 Bundesliga games in a row without a clean sheet? According to our Bayern Mainz AI forecast, this can only degenerate into a debacle for the vulnerable defence of the zero-fives. Because the Munich offense is overpowering.
And indeed: 90 minutes in the Allianz Arena can be very long if the hosts put their own box in a state of siege for the entire game.
I can therefore gain a lot from the AI suggestion 5+ goals: Bayern Munich at odds of about 3.30. The Rheinhessen are actually in danger of being crushed on Sunday.
Win Bayern without conceding a goal at odds around 1.88 should also go through your head as a possible tip on your personal betting slip.
With 11 goals, Mainz has the most harmless attack in the league, which is also responsible for the fewest Bundesliga shots on goal in the top flight (34).
Last but not least, the last computer-generated recommendation, Win Bayern with HC -3 at odds around 2.80, makes it onto my betting slip. Because the difference in performance should be enormous.
The best odds for Bayern vs. Mainz
Let’s take a look at the Bayern Mainz odds – a market that seems extremely clear at first glance, but where the bookmakers still factor in M05’s typical outsider chances.
A home win for Bayern is rated 1.09. The bookies thus signal an almost certain result: individual class, squad depth, home strength and the dominant playing style speak for a superior appearance of the record champions.
The odds show that anything else would be a huge surprise.
The draw is 13.0. This reflects more theoretical scenarios – for example, that Mainz is unexpectedly stable defensively or that Bayern has an exceptionally weak game. For the bookmakers, however, this is a rather unlikely result.
After all, for an away win of Mainz there is an average of 18.0. This figure makes it clear: The bottom of the table is a clear outsider, but upsets are not impossible in the Bundesliga.
Bayern vs Mainz Match Analysis:
It’s hard to imagine that anyone can still challenge Bayern for the title. Vincent Kompany will nevertheless mercilessly whip his team forward on Sunday.
Bayern have the best field tilt in the Bundesliga, control the game and keep opponents deep in their own half. Their aggressive pressing ensures that Mainz can hardly find ways through the defence.
With an average of 9.08 shots allowed per home game, Bayern have the best defence in the league, while Mainz is one of the teams with the second fewest shots of their own.
Offensively, Bayern is even more frightening: 3.77 goals per league game – the best in Europe’s top 5 leagues. In six of seven home games, they scored at least three goals.
Mainz recently conceded a 4-0 defeat in Freiburg and will have a hard time against this offensive. Kompany’s team will use the spaces mercilessly, dominate the game and exhaust the offensive.
Everything speaks for a Bayern victory with several goals, in which Mainz will rarely get real chances to equalize.
Bayern Form Check
Bayern Munich have picked up a whopping 37 points from their first 13 Bundesliga games – a joint record previously only achieved by Bayern themselves in 2015/16.
The team is unbeaten in 22 Bundesliga games (18 wins, 4 draws) and dominates both the table and the statistics.
The probability that Bayern will defend the title is correspondingly high: our forecast model gives them 99.5%. Forecasts see a season ending with at least 87 points, five more than last year.
Bayern set standards offensively: In the last 21 Bundesliga games, they have scored at least two goals – a new league record. With 49 goals after 13 games, they have also scored the most goals at this point in Bundesliga history.
This is underlined by the expected goals: Bayern lead with 3.77 xG per game, 1.62 more than Leipzig in second place. Harry Kane has scored 17 times in the first 13 matchdays so far – a record in league history for this phase.
Defensively, Bayern are also stable: 0.68 xGA per game and only 0.69 actual goals conceded.
All in all, an impressive start that clearly shows Bayern as the number one title candidate.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz is currently stuck at the bottom of the table and is clearly suffering from the strain of the Conference League. After 13 Bundesliga games, the Rheinhessen have collected only six points – the worst yield since the 2020/21 season.
These problems drive up the probability of relegation: Our data model gives Mainz a 44.4% chance of being downgraded to League Two.
The model sees the team in 16th place, which makes participation in the relegation matches against a second division team likely.
Offensively, things are also sluggish. Mainz have only scored 11 goals so far, the worst rate in the league together with St. Pauli, and have had the fewest shots on target (34).
Interestingly, Mainz still manages to record an average of 28 ball touches in the opponent’s penalty area – only Leipzig (31) and Bayern (38) are ahead.
However, the expected goals show a clear picture: With -4.84, Mainz are the worst in the league and hit their chances much worse than expected.
In addition, there is the burden of Thursday games: After European games, they have lost five of six Bundesliga games. Under new coach Urs Fischer, who recently lost nine games with Union Berlin, Mainz is facing a difficult phase.
