Bremen – Hoffenheim Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 16 on Saturday, 10.01.2026 at 15:30 CET
While it looked at times as if Werder Bremen could stalk their way to the European Cup places, the great spirit of optimism on the Weser has now evaporated again.
With only a three-point lead over 15th place, Bremen can hardly afford a home defeat against TSG Hoffenheim on Bundesliga matchday 16.
However, I don’t have a successful performance of the Werder team in my Bremen Hoffenheim tip in my sights. Rather, I have the away win at a strong odds around 2.35 at Betano in mind.
Hoffenheim have spent the winter in fifth place in the table and want to get into the Champions League. The main reason for TSG’s flight of fancy is undoubtedly the unusual away strength. In fact, 1899 have picked up more points away from home (15) than at home (12). Against a weakening Bremen, three away points are not a utopia.
The following statistic should bring worry lines to the faces of all Bremen fans. Werder is currently the weakest team in the league together with 1 FC Cologne. No one can beat two points from the last five games.
And to put it in a nutshell: If you only score eight goals in the first seven home games, you may even have to worry about staying in the league in the end – especially if the start of the year against TSG goes down the drain.
Bremen – Hoffenheim Prediction & Betting Tips
Since I assume that Werder will act extremely passively at the beginning and leave the midfield to TSG, the first half in particular should be quite tough. “Draw at half-time” at odds around 2.25 at bookmakers with PayPal is therefore also my first tip alternative.
As already mentioned, Bremen has big problems scoring goals in front of their home crowd. Inevitably, the bet “Bremen under 1.5 goals” comes to mind. The odds were even rather generous at around 1.70.
If I had to decide on a result bet, the “2:1 for Hoffenheim” would be the result of my choice. The bookmakers sort the bet at about 9.50. Only the 1:1 is even lower at 7.40.
What you need to consider when betting on Bremen vs. Hoffenheim
- Werder Bremen go into this game without a win from their last five Bundesliga games (2 draws, 3 defeats). The home side had a particularly difficult time at the Weserstadion: Only three home wins in the league and the second-weakest home goal record in the Bundesliga with eight goals speak for themselves.
- Hoffenheim, on the other hand, are experiencing their best Bundesliga season in nine years. With 27 points from 15 games, TSG are one of the most in-form teams in the league and also have the second-best away team. In the 2025/26 season, the Kraichgau team picked up 15 points from seven away games (4 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat).
- Our prediction model expects a close game with a total of 2.96 expected goals. Strikingly, in the last six direct duels, the combination “Over 2.5 goals & both teams score” prevailed.
- In the market for the goalscorer, there is no clear favorite. Fisnik Asllani is considered the most likely TSG goalscorer, followed directly by a group of Hoffenheim attackers who have made a significant contribution to Hoffenheim scoring an average of 1.93 goals per 90 minutes this season.
Bremen – Hoffenheim: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI model is very reluctant to interrupt snow shoveling, but of course there is still time for a Bremen Hoffenheim AI prediction.
The AI’s first tip is comparatively creative, but is supported by statistics. “Bremen doesn’t score in the 1st half” has odds around 1.80 and makes perfect sense. On average, Bremen only score 0.4 goals before the break in front of their home crowd.
I’m rather skeptical about the second tip. “Over 2.5 goals & both teams score” would cover the 2-1 for Hoffenheim I mentioned. Ultimately, however, it would not be a surprise if Werder remained without a goal at all. The odds around 1.75 are therefore a crack too low for me.
The digital brain also has a risk tip in store for you. “Hoffenheim win with handicap -1” makes it to odds of 4.50. I’ll ask you: Is a 2-0 win for TSG unrealistic given the starting position? At least an Interwetten Freebet can be considered at this point.
The best odds for Bremen vs. Hoffenheim
The odds for the match Werder Bremen against Hoffenheim give the guests a slight advantage.
The 1X2 odds on Bremen correspond to a probability of victory of around 33 percent, while Hoffenheim is estimated to win away from home at around 44 percent.
Despite this role as favourites, there is a statistical flaw: Hoffenheim have lost their first Bundesliga game after the winter break in six of the past seven years. Nevertheless, the overall rating tips in favor of the guests, as Bremen is winless in five league games.
In the Asian handicap market, Bremen starts with +0.25, Hoffenheim accordingly with -0.25. For bets on Bremen +0.25, a home win means the full profit, a draw brings half of the possible return.
If Bremen loses, the stake is lost. With the Hoffenheim handicap of -0.25, an away win is necessary for the full win. In the event of a draw, half of the stake is lost, the other half is refunded.
The Asian goal line is over/under 3.0 goals. For a full win on “Over 3.0”, at least four hits must be landed. If there are exactly three goals, all stakes are paid back to Over and Under 3.0. Two or fewer goals mean a win for all Under 3.0 bets.
In the market for the goalscorer at any time, Hoffenheim players dominate five of the top six positions.
Bremen vs Hoffenheim Match Analysis:
Both teams had the opportunity to make a fresh start during the winter break, but the form before Christmas clearly speaks for Hoffenheim. The Kraichgau team go into the game as favourites and travel with a lead of ten points over their opponents.
Under coach Christian Ilzer, Hoffenheim rely on a dynamic offensive game and should therefore also have chances in this game.
With the fifth-best xG value (Expected Goals) in the Bundesliga, they will meet a Bremen team that has the fourth-worst league value in the xGA (Expected Goals Against). Accordingly, top-class opportunities for the guests are to be expected.
Hoffenheim is also well ahead of Bremen in terms of field superiority. The so-called field tilt, which measures territorial dominance, as well as the PPDA value (passes allowed per defensive action) paint a similar picture.
Hoffenheim relies on aggressive pressing to win the ball back quickly. Bremen are much more passive. As a result, the guests are expected to have the majority of possession.
Werder are likely to be under pressure for the most part in this game – a role to which Bremen has become accustomed. The average pass height is 45.31 metres, the fourth lowest in the league, indicating that the majority of passes are played far in their own half.
With a deep-lying home team, counterattacks become the most important weapon. However, Bremen have only scored two goals from transition situations so far this Bundesliga season.
Bremen Form Check
Werder Bremen have gone winless in their last five Bundesliga games (D2 L3) – the longest winless drought since the period from February to April 2024 (seven games at the time). In the last five matchdays, only 1. FC Köln collected as few points as Bremen (two), no team less.
Werder are currently in tenth place and six points ahead of the relegation zone. Nevertheless, there are many indications that Bremen could get into the relegation battle again this season.
Qualifying for the European competition seems out of reach, but at the same time a direct fall into the 2nd Bundesliga is rather unlikely with a six-point cushion.
The goal remains realistic to score points at the Weserstadion in particular – but Werder have only won three league games there this year and have the second-weakest home attack in the Bundesliga with only eight goals scored.
The start of 2026 promises additional difficulties: Bremen will play the next seven games exclusively against higher-ranked teams, including all four German Champions League participants – Borussia Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich.
If at least five points are not taken from these seven games, Werder could slip deep into the relegation battle before the duels with St. Pauli and Heidenheim at the end of February.
The central problem remains the lack of penetration in the attack. With only 18 goals from 15 games, there is a lack of a reliable goalscorer. Although Werder is urgently looking for a reinforcement for the offensive, reports do not indicate a timely signing.
With an average xG value of 1.18 per game, Bremen has the fourth-weakest value in the league, and only five different players have scored in the Bundesliga so far.
Hoffenheim form check
Hoffenheim have undergone a remarkable change in form since the end of last season and have developed from relegation candidates to contenders for the Champions League places.
With 27 points from 15 games, the Kraichgau team are experiencing their best Bundesliga season in nine years – a haul they last achieved at this point in the 2016/17 season.
In the last nine Bundesliga games, Hoffenheim have conceded only one defeat, against Borussia Dortmund of all teams. In this phase, they conceded only eight goals – a league best.
Hoffenheim have been particularly strong away from home this season: With 15 points and a goal difference of 14-9, they are the second-best away team in the Bundesliga, only Bayern Munich (19 points) is better.
Across the season, the Kraichgau team have lost just one of their last ten Bundesliga away games (W4 D5), also in a 2-0 defeat at Dortmund at the beginning of December.
However, the end of 2025 was disappointing: In the last two away games at Dortmund and Stuttgart, Hoffenheim failed to score a goal of their own. Three goalless away games in a row would equal the club’s negative record, which was previously only achieved in spring 2011 and autumn 2024.
Hoffenheim have the most aggressive pressing in the Bundesliga. With the most pressing sequences per game (14.20) and the lowest PPDA value in the league (9.6 passes allowed per defensive action), TSG put their opponents under pressure early on.
With an average possession of the ball at 53.7 per cent – the fifth-best figure in the league – Hoffenheim controls the game both at home and away.
