Dortmund – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 18 on Saturday, 17/01/2026 at 15:30 CET
A few days ago, I was able to provide you with a pleasant and successful tip for every BVB fan on the Black & Yellows’ last Bundesliga appearance so far.
According to the Bundesliga schedule, it is now going on blow by blow, and I didn’t really have to think about my Dortmund St. Pauli tip for a long time! Nevertheless, I approach a selected betting provider with PayPal full of confidence to put it to the test.
Because just as the offensive department of the Werder team had little to report, the attacking attempts of the Kiezkicker in the Dortmund half will probably fizzle out unsuccessfully.
A clean sheet victory for Kovac’s team is therefore the scenario that I have firmly in my sights at odds of around 2.00. Especially since St. Pauli scores an average of only 0.9 Bundesliga goals per game and, at 17.3, has the lowest xG value in the league.
There is simply a lot to be said for Borussia – not least the direct comparison.
Borussia Dortmund have lost just one of their last 15 direct ties with FC St. Pauli (W12 D2) and have been unbeaten in the Bundesliga against the Kiezkicker since 1989 – even before the fall of the Berlin Wall!
This clear historical trend underlines why the Black and Yellows are rightly favoured by every betting provider according to the current Bundesliga odds on this pairing.
Dortmund – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting
By the way, I have some more subtle Dortmund St. Pauli tips for you in the quiver, which can also be used to get more lavish odds offers together with a Merkur Bets betting boost.
From a 1X2 point of view, in seven of the last nine games of the Kiezkicker, the half-time score was also similar to the later outcome of the game.
For me, this means that for me, the Dortmund/Dortmund 1/1 bet on Saturday at odds around 1.91 is automatically very popular.
And for those who want to know exactly: A courageous 1-0 result bet at half-time on Dortmund St. Pauli betting odds around 3.10 could prove to be an absolute stroke of luck.
Dortmund have only conceded three of their 15 Bundesliga goals in the first half anyway, which is why I see very little work ahead of BVB keeper Kobel, especially in the first half.
What you need to know about Dortmund vs. St. Pauli betting
- Dortmund have lost only one of their last 25 league games and have scored at least two goals most recently.
- St Pauli currently has to play six games within 21 days due to match postponements and the cup.
- The Hamburg team has never won in eleven Bundesliga visits to Dortmund.
- Serhou Guirassy ended his goalscoring drought against Bremen and is one of the most dangerous strikers in the league.
Dortmund – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
I really like our independent Dortmund St. Pauli AI prediction, as it ties in with possible betting scenarios that I could probably have recommended to you myself as a Bundesliga expert!
This applies in particular to the advice to make a handicap bet, which is abbreviated to HC -1 with BVB to win and currently promises odds of around 1.93 on the betting markets.
It was not to come to another 3-3 draw like in the first half of the season, because Dortmund has developed magnificently under Niko Kovac since then.
I can also only recommend the special bet BVB to win both halves at odds of around 2.75. In my eyes, our AI has worked out a real winning tip here.
If you like it a bit less risky, you can prefer the alternative suggestion BVB meets in both halves at slightly lower odds of around 2.05.
Personally, I take both, because these bets would have been successful against Bremen a few days ago and I am of the opinion anyway that everything the Kiezkicker can do, the Werder team can do a bit better.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. St. Pauli
A look at the Dortmund St. Pauli odds leaves little room for interpretation: The bookmakers expect a clear evening for Borussia. The dominant first home appearance in 2026 has noticeably pushed market opinion in this direction.
A home win for Borussia Dortmund is scheduled at 1.31. The bookies make it unmistakably clear that they see Dortmund ahead in almost all relevant categories – pace, individual quality, game control and depth in the squad.
For the markets, anything other than a BVB success would be a real surprise.
The draw is 5.50. This rate signals that a point for St. Pauli is only expected under very special circumstances: maximum efficiency, defensive discipline and a course of play that tips in favor of the guests early on.
An away win by St. Pauli is finally valued at 9.00. The bookmakers clearly classify the Hamburg team as outsiders. To survive here, almost everything would have to come together perfectly – a scenario that the markets are currently only marginally considering.
Dortmund vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
Dortmund should set the tone from the first second and press St. Pauli deep into their own half. The numbers clearly speak for themselves: BVB have the third-best home points haul and the best home defence in the league with only four goals conceded.
St. Pauli simply doesn’t have enough penetration away from home – only six goals away from home are the second-worst figure in the Bundesliga.
Big phases of relief for the Kiezkicker are therefore hardly to be expected, especially since they lack the means of play to appear quickly and cleanly in front of Gregor Kobel.
Dortmund vs St. Pauli – Record last five games:
The course of the game should be clear: Dortmund with early pressing, a lot of possession in the final third and constant pressure over the wings and half-spaces.
Even if Niko Kovac rotates in view of the Champions League match against Tottenham, the quality remains high enough to constrict St. Pauli. The guests will sit deep, hope for second balls and try to stay in the game through commitment and set-pieces.
But their away record against European teams is weak – defeats in Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Munich and Freiburg speak for themselves.
Everything points to a controlled Dortmund performance with little risk and a high xG yield, while St. Pauli is more likely to fight for damage limitation.
The course of the game should be clear: Dortmund with early pressing, a lot of possession in the final third and constant pressure over the wings and half-spaces.
Even if Niko Kovac rotates in view of the Champions League match against Tottenham, the quality remains high enough to constrict St. Pauli. The guests will sit deep, hope for second balls and try to stay in the game through commitment and set-pieces.
But their away record against European teams is weak – defeats in Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Munich and Freiburg speak for themselves.
Everything points to a controlled Dortmund performance with little risk and a high xG yield, while St. Pauli is more likely to fight for damage limitation.
Dortmund Form Check
Dortmund impressively confirmed their strong phase during the week and further consolidated second place in the table with a clear 3-0 win against Werder Bremen.
This means that BVB have only one defeat from their last eleven competitive games, a run that is characterised by stability and consistency.
Even though the gap to leaders Bayern has already grown significantly and real title hopes remain rather theoretical, Dortmund can be quite satisfied with the way the season has gone.
It is the best start after 17 league games since the 2018/19 season, which clearly underlines the positive development.
The home form is particularly striking. Things are currently going almost perfectly at Signal Iduna Park, with six wins and two draws in the Bundesliga. The last three home games have all been won without conceding a single goal.
Overall, Dortmund has the most home-to-nil games in the league, which further emphasises defensive stability. There are hardly any worries about personnel at the moment: There have been no new absences, which gives the coach planning security.
This mixture of form, home strength and personnel continuity ensures that Dortmund go into this game with a lot of confidence and, above all, are likely to be very controlled again, especially defensively.
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli travels with much less tailwind. Although they held up well against Wolfsburg for a long time, in the end there was still a bitter 2-1 defeat after conceding a late goal.
As a result, the team missed out on freeing itself from the relegation ranks for the time being. Although they have played one game less than their direct competition, this does not make the task any easier.
The record against teams from the top half of the table is particularly sobering: Against teams from the current top twelve, St. Pauli is still waiting for its first win of the season (2 draws, 9 defeats).
The newly promoted team is also having an extremely difficult time on the road. One win from nine away games, plus five defeats with at least two goals conceded, clearly show where the problems lie.
In terms of personnel, the fact that Danel Sinani and Jackson Irvine were missing two important players recently makes matters worse. In addition, Ricky-Jade Jones had to be substituted injured against Wolfsburg, which could further exacerbate the already tense situation.
Overall, the current form clearly speaks against St. Pauli, especially defensively, there is often a lack of stability away from home to keep close games really open.
