Marseille – Liverpool Tip Champions League, Matchday 7 on Wednesday, 21/01/2026 at 21:00 CET
You know, Olympique won’t win Ligue 1 or the Champions League in the end. Both you and old and new bookmakers should agree with me immediately without much objection.
But: If I were you, I would still dare to make a Marseille Liverpool tip that sees the southern French get something on Wednesday against the “slot machine” from the island, which has been defective since the beginning of the season – at least with the help of the Interwetten free bet!
Personally, I decided on a promising draw bet. However, with a home game average of 2.22 points in Ligue 1 and given their strong European performances at the Velodrome, OM could be able to do even more.
As if the 2025/26 season wasn’t difficult enough for the Reds, they are now also facing statistical headwinds!
Because the upcoming trip to Marseille is also not under a good star: Liverpool have won only one of their last six competitive games away against French clubs, plus two draws and three defeats.
Although the most recent trip to France in March 2025 ended with a narrow 1-0 win at Paris Saint-Germain, the overall weak season clearly suggests that this trip to the Mediterranean coast will be anything but a foregone conclusion.
Marseille – Liverpool Prediction & Betting
The game will gravitate closely around a point split. In this context, there are exactly two more Marseille Liverpool predictions, which I would also like to present to you at this point.
1st goal: Marseille at odds around 2.27, for example, has a first-class risk-reward ratio in my eyes. How many times has Liverpool failed to live up to expectations this season? Too often!
Double chance 1X at values around 1.85 would also be conceivable as a 1X2 alternative, but only if you can imagine a home victory of the French more than I can.
Because I myself deliberately chose a riskier draw bet, as it is the better choice from a purely game-theoretical point of view.
What you need to consider when betting on Marseille vs. Liverpool
- Marseille are the most dangerous team in Ligue 1, with an average of 2.3 goals per game and an 18% chance conversion rate across teams, they have the best attack in the league.
- Although Liverpool are unbeaten in 12 games on paper, they have only won 50% of their games in this period.
- Liverpool have only kept a clean sheet twice in their last seven games. Excluding the cup matches (Coupe de France), Marseille have only kept one clean sheet in the last nine games.
- Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk has won 20 of his 24 aerial duels this Champions League season. His success rate of 83% is the best among all players in the current competition (with at least 20 duels contested).
Marseille – Liverpool: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Meanwhile, our Marseille Liverpool AI prediction suggests a different approach to the one I took to maximize your betting success. Our internal football oracle recommends speculating on the possible course of the game rather than on the outcome of the game itself.
The bet “Both teams to score” at odds around 1.55 is considered particularly promising, as Olympique leads Ligue 1 in terms of goals scored, averaging an impressive 2.3 per league game.
Meanwhile, you shouldn’t worry too much about the fact that the Reds couldn’t score as well. Because the slot eleven – even if they don’t always win – is at least a reliable contact when it comes to their own goals!
Liverpool have scored eight times away from home in their last ten competitive games, and their combined xG value of 14.2 is only surpassed by the likes of Bayern and Arsenal in the Champions League league stage in the competition anyway.
The conditions for many goals seem so favorable to our AI that it also recommends the bet type “Over 2.5 goals” at acceptable odds around 1.65.
The best odds for Marseille vs. Liverpool
A look at the current Marseille Liverpool odds quickly makes it clear: The markets have the Reds firmly in their sights despite ongoing problems and classify them as favorites – just as if the “slot machine” were working completely defect-free.
A home win by Olympique is therefore valued at 3.60. The bookmakers recognize the home strength of the French, but only expect a success against the English in exceptional cases. At OM, every pass seems to have to be right to surprise.
The draw is 3.95. The bookmakers calculate that Liverpool may not take the game into their own hands immediately, while Marseille could build up pressure in phases – so a point for both sides is not completely out of the question.
An away win by Liverpool is traded at 1.92. The markets rely on the individual class, experience and depth of the Reds.
A success of the guests is therefore most likely to be expected, even if I am known to have a different opinion in this regard.
Marseille vs Liverpool Match Analysis:
Be prepared for an extremely intense game, in which Liverpool will chase the ball deep in the opponent’s third from the first minute.
The Reds are one of the most aggressive teams in the Champions League, both in terms of winning the ball and pressing, and have so far made more pressing attempts in the opponent’s penalty area than any other team (313).
Hugo Ekitike is particularly striking: With 73 pressing actions, he leads Liverpool’s internal rankings.
A similar picture is likely to emerge against Marseille. Liverpool will run high, narrow spaces and use every opportunity to punish French turnovers immediately.
The Reds will also try to dictate the rhythm, while Marseille will have to be careful not to be surprised by repeated attempts by the English into their defensive centre.
The biggest disagreement with our Marseille Liverpool AI prediction lies precisely on this point.
I expect the OM defence to hold its own and a 1-1 draw is most likely, while our data model assumes that the Reds will be much more successful with this style of play.
Marseille Form Check
Marseille come into this seventh Champions League matchday with a lot of tailwind.
After two consecutive victories against Newcastle (2-1) and Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (3-2), the southern French have not only added to their points tally, but also celebrated the 50th Champions League victory in the club’s history with the latest success.
This automatically brings a special mark within reach: three UCL victories in a row – the French have not managed that since 2010.
Under Roberto De Zerbi, Marseille currently looks extremely stable. In the last two competitive games, they have scored a whopping 14 goals, which speaks for the offensive power of the team, while the home record in all competitions shows only two defeats (8 wins, 2 draws).
This mixture of penetration and defensive compactness gives hope for an exciting performance in this game.
Nevertheless, there are minor concerns: Bilal Nadir recently had to leave the pitch injured, while Benjamin Pavard is already out anyway. For De Zerbi, it will also be important to find the right balance between attacking spirit and security in defence.
Liverpool Form Check
Liverpool arrive in good spirits and want to keep up the pressure on the top 8 at all costs.
The Reds start this game with the same number of points as the three teams ahead of them in the Champions League ranking, having recently recorded an impressive 1-0 away win at Inter.
In addition, the English have won 14 of the last 18 away games in the Champions League. Especially in view of this strong record, my own betting decision ultimately prefers to stick to a draw and not an OM victory.
Nevertheless, small weaknesses are evident at the moment: the Reds have only drawn four of their last five games, including a very disappointing 1-1 draw against Burnley at home.
This slackening has somewhat tarnished the shine of a continuing 12-game series of usable results. On the positive side, however, Arne Slot has no new injury problems to complain about!
The task here will be to rediscover the rhythm of recent Champions League away games while keeping Marseille at bay – a mix of patience, cleverness and pace will be crucial.
