St. Pauli – RB Leipzig Prediction | Bundesliga, Matchday 16 on Tuesday, 27/01/2026 at 20:30 CET
I recently saw an exciting documentary about the history of the Hamburg derby in the ARD media library! But all my newfound appreciation for the cult club from the neighbourhood is not enough to hide my football expertise on Tuesday.
If I were to inaugurate a great sports betting bonus today, it would be with a simple, but at odds of 1.85 on average extremely lucrative St. Pauli Leipzig tip on the Red Bulls!
A catch-up game during the week always requires a slightly different approach, but if everything goes “normally”, then what I saw from RBL last at the Brenz is easily enough to show the next relegation candidate his limits
Looking at the Bundesliga schedule, it is officially a catch-up game, but one that should surprisingly please the older Pauli fans, who have been following their club for a while now!
RB Leipzig have not been able to win any of their three previous competitive games away from home and have even remained goalless – twice 0-1 in the 2nd division, once 0-0 in the Bundesliga.
What’s more, since promotion to the 3rd division in 2013, the Saxons have not played so many away games without scoring a goal at any other club. But in my experience, numbers alone don’t win a football match …
St. Pauli – RB Leipzig Prediction & Betting
I can only emphasize how attractive I think the St. Pauli Leipzig odds for an away win for the Saxons are. I will definitely use a little more of my own money instead of resorting to a Winamax free bet.
By the way, the selection RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals makes it to a separate betting slip thanks to the odds of about 3.40. After all, RBL already scored a hat-trick against Heidenheim just a few days ago – so why not against the second-to-last team in the table?
Meanwhile, RB Leipzig to nil at odds of around 3.30 could be another interesting option. The Kiezkicker have failed to score in three of their last four Bundesliga home games and have only put the ball in the net against bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim in this period.
What you need to know about St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig betting
- St. Pauli has the weakest offense in the league with only 0.89 goals per game and also has the fewest shots on goal
- Ole Werner’s team is convincing at both ends of the pitch and is in the top four in terms of goals scored and conceded
- In Hamburg’s most recent home games and Leipzig’s away games, goals were regularly scored for only one of the teams involved
- Yan Diomande leads the Bundesliga with an average of 4.3 successful dribbles per game, well ahead of his second-placed teammate Antonio Nusa
St. Pauli – RB Leipzig: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
I have already requested a St. Pauli RB Leipzig AI forecast twice in 2026. Because just in time for the catch-up date, I wanted to get another daily assessment of our digital betting friend.
Meanwhile, what is a new recommendation for Tuesday? Yan Diomande could turn out to be a lucrative and promising goal scorer bet at very attractive odds of around 2.47.
Especially since the in-form teenager was directly involved in two goals in the service of the Saxons only at the weekend.
In this Bundesliga season, the contrast could hardly be greater: St. Pauli hardly has any chances (10.2 shots, 0.8 expected goals), while Leipzig is one of the most dangerous teams (16.3 shots, 1.9 expected goals) – only Bayern is higher.
Our AI uses this data contrast to make me a betting suggestion, which should definitely be considered by you at odds around 2.42: Asian-HC: Leipzig (-1.0).
In fact, in my eyes, you could maybe even make a (-2.0) out of it if RBL plays really well.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig
The current St. Pauli RB Leipzig odds show that the bookmakers have adjusted their assessment once again. At the catch-up date, the Saxons look much more stable and well-rehearsed than at the beginning of the month, which is directly reflected in the market valuations.
A home win for the Kiezkicker is 4.00. The markets therefore clearly see the Hamburg team in the underdog role, but give them the chance to put RBL under pressure at times – especially through intense duels or quick counterattacks.
The draw is noted at 3.80. The bookmakers calculate a scenario in which the cult club could control individual sections of the game, but Leipzig retains the upper hand overall. A point for the home side would be possible, but surprising.
An RBL three-pointer, on the other hand, is 1.86. The bookmakers rely on the squad quality, experience and current form of the Saxons – they are clearly considered favorites, a victory is expected, but not automatically in the sweeping victory format.
St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig Match Analysis:
Leipzig should take control of the game from the start, while St. Pauli are deep at the back and hardly create any chances.
The Saxons come into the game as fifth in the table with a 22-point lead over St. Pauli and even have the opportunity to overtake Hoffenheim and Stuttgart and reach third place. So the motivation is great!
Although St. Pauli has one of the highest possession rates in the opponent’s third in the Bundesliga, this field advantage has hardly been converted into goals so far – after all, the Hamburg team has the weakest offense in the league with only 16 goals.
Under Ole Werner, they press high, but purposefully and not permanently, so that St. Pauli can only keep the ball close to their own box without being able to create many chances.
Leipzig, on the other hand, uses its ball supremacy in the middle of the pitch effectively, creating chances from the open game and has already scored eight goals from set pieces.
Although St. Pauli is usually solid in defending opponents’ set-pieces (only 0.27 xGA per game), Leipzig’s quality in both build-up play and offense clearly suggests that they will take control of the game early on!
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli recently showed bite again in the Hamburg derby, but the point in the 0-0 draw against the hated HSV brought little relief.
The series without a win has now grown to four matchdays in a row (2 draws, 2 defeats), and the situation remains precarious: Thanks to the better goal difference, the Kiezkicker are only just above bottom of the table Heidenheim, five points behind 15th place.
A three-pointer would actually be mandatory here, but the numbers speak against them.
At home, they have only won twice this season and only scored against FCH – St. Pauli, on the other hand, has almost no chance against teams from the top half of the table (1 draw, 8 defeats).
The boys continue to fight, but their offense is too harmless at the moment, and the defense often wobbles in set pieces. Realistically, it will be difficult to score here, especially against Leipzig, who currently have a lot of confidence from their recent successes.
RB Leipzig form check
Leipzig, on the other hand, has finally caught up. After three defeats from the previous four games, Ole Werner’s team recently showed again in the 3-0 win against Heidenheim how confidently they can dominate clubs in the relegation zone.
Not only does this end the short dry spell in the context of excursions, but Leipzig is also safely in the top four and is even ahead of the points tally they have had at this time in three of the last four seasons.
Sure, things are not going well against the top three in the league (1 draw, 3 defeats), but against relegation candidates they are untouchable so far this season – all three games against teams have been won to nil (3 wins).
The self-confidence is high, the offense dynamic, and Werner can draw on the full, as the selection of fit players does not cause any worries. Leipzig looks mature, composed and hungry for more points, so it will be extremely difficult for St. Pauli to have any chance at all here.
