Dortmund – Mainz Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 22 on Friday, 13.02.2026 at 20:30 CET
I wouldn’t say that the championship fight is finally decided. But the record champions have definitely made it clear with their victory over TSG that they are not wavering. Now it’s time for BVB to keep at it at all costs!
According to my Dortmund Mainz tip, they will succeed in the last game before the playoff first leg in the Champions League according to the Bundesliga schedule – and how! I decided on the special bet “BVB will score in both halves”.
The odds of currently about 2.15 at verified betting providers were undoubtedly attractive, but the favorable data situation also strengthened my decision. Because in 70% of their last 10 Bundesliga home games, Borussia achieved exactly this feat!
And yes, Mainz may be on the rise at the moment, but they are certainly not an overpowering team!
BVB fans remember Mainz’s last visit only too fondly! Almost as much as I remember one or the other great sports betting bonus that I have already successfully implemented this month!
At the end of March 2025, Dortmund won 3-1 at home, initiating a wild race to catch up towards the Champions League ranks that had paid off!
Since that day, the Black and Yellows have suffered just one defeat in 29 Bundesliga games, a 2-1 defeat at Bayern on Matchday 7, and are now unbeaten in 14 games.
Dortmund – Mainz Prediction & Betting Tips
In my opinion, it will be a game in which Borussia sets the tone early on, nets before the break and preferably leaves it at exactly one goal before replenishing after the break.
I therefore make a bet with a proven betting provider with a German license, which reads as follows and promises odds of about 3.65 as well as good statistical chances of success: 1. HZ – 1:0 for BVB.
Amazingly, Dortmund have already led to the change of sides 15 times this season, and in 12 of those cases it was actually 1-0 before the restart.
However, as already mentioned, I expect high black and yellow constant pressure even after the change of ends, which is why BVB wins both halves at about 3.45 should be played through as a more aggressive alternative, at least mentally.
This is what you need to consider when betting on Dortmund vs. Mainz
- Dortmund are a force at home: With a record of eight wins from ten home games and an unbeaten points average of 2.60 per game, BVB even surpasses Bayern’s values in their own stadium.
- Top game of form: Dortmund lead the current form table with a perfect 15 points from five games, followed by Mainz 05, who also shine under Urs Fischer with an average of 2.40 points.
- Although the bookmakers set the goal line at 3.0, both teams are in the lower half of the table on average for the season (Mainz 2.76; Dortmund 3.00 goals per game), which makes the “under” bet interesting.
- Serhou Guirassy has ended his slump: With three goals in the last two games against Heidenheim and Wolfsburg, he scored a third of his total goals this season (9) in just two weeks.
Dortmund – Mainz: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Me and our data model are not always completely green to us. Although the Dortmund Mainz AI prediction agrees with me that the “Black & Yellows” will be victorious, at the same time it advocates a rather low-scoring course of the game.
Win BVB & Under 3.5 goals at odds of around 2.67 is the preferred combination bet of our digital friend, and basically I can’t raise any objections apart from an uneasy gut feeling.
Because just looking at the data, there is much to be said for the usefulness of this proposal, as 12 of Dortmund’s last 13 Bundesliga victories have actually been achieved with a final result that can be composed of less than a total of four goals.
1st goal: Julian Brandt at odds of around 9.00 and the much lower average of 3.20 for the lower-risk selection Brandt is also endorsed by our AI model – and there is a reason for that.
Because the crowd favourite Dortmund scored the 1-0 for the fourth time this season in his last Bundesliga appearance against the Wolves and already caused a sensation in the first half of the season.
His two goal involvements in the 2-0 win over Mainz were decisive for the success. Consequently, I can definitely approve this AI proposal for promising player bets.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Mainz
Shortly after the DFB Cup quarter-finals, the bookmakers have once again carefully adjusted the Dortmund Mainz odds. The market picture reflects that the home side are considered clear favourites, while Mainz are given few chances as challengers.
A home win for Borussia is 1.56. The markets are relying on offensive pressure, speed and the individual class of the Black and Yellows.
The probability that Dortmund will take the three points before their UCL appearances against Bergamo is estimated to be high, even if Mainz could resist at times.
The draw is 4.50. Here, the bookmakers calculate a scenario in which Mainz defends well organized and Dortmund does not make the most of its chances. A point would be a surprising, but not impossible result.
An away win by Mainz is rated 5.10. The odds underline the underdog role of the Rheinhessen: Only an exceptional form on the day or a blackout by Dortmund could give the guests a victory.
The Dortmund Mainz odds thus show a duel in which Dortmund is clearly preferred, but M05 could cause small surprises with tactical skill and fighting spirit.
Dortmund vs Mainz Match Analysis:
Urs Fischer has triggered a small football renaissance in Mainz, there is no doubt about that. The Rheinhessen team is playing courageously forward again and relies on quick counterattacks, which has already caused Dortmund problems in the past.
However, Borussia will take control from the start, claim a lot of possession and dictate the tempo – after all, BVB are third in the Bundesliga in terms of xG (expected goals) and want to create a wealth of chances here.
Mainz will try to use the spaces cleverly and initiate counterattacks early on. In the 2-1 win against Leipzig, Mainz showed that they can still win the xG record with only 30% possession and generate the bigger chances.
This is a clear warning to BVB, because Fischer will prepare his players precisely for transition moments. Nevertheless, Borussia are likely to play the game, putting many balls into dangerous zones and building up offensive pressure – while Mainz are lurking for their counterattacks and hoping that a quick finish is in place.
A classic duel awaits you: Dortmund dominant on the ball, Mainz dangerous on counterattacks.
Dortmund Form Check
Borussia continued their race to catch up with the German record champions last weekend when Serhou Guirassy scored late against Wolfsburg to give them the victory.
Niko Kovac’s team remains six points behind the Munich team, but remains confident that a late overtaking maneuver will still be possible!
After Dortmund were still eleven points behind Bayern in mid-January, the team was able to significantly reduce the deficit and keep the pressure on Vincent Kompany’s team high thanks to five consecutive league wins and Bayern’s declining form.
However, Dortmund will have to do without Nico Schlotterbeck in defence on Friday, who is suspended after his fifth yellow card. The absence of the key player could affect the stability of the defence, with Ramy Bensebaini likely to move into the starting eleven.
In attack, Karim Adeyemi is out again, so Julian Brandt is expected to take his place and get the chance to compensate for Adeyemi’s absence. That’s exactly why our Dortmund Mainz AI prediction also focused on Brandt.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz celebrated an important 2-0 win against Augsburg last weekend when Nadiem Amiri converted both penalties. With the third win in a row, the Rheinhessen have overcome their crisis for the time being and climb to 21 points, leaving the relegation zone.
Since parting ways with coach Bo Henriksen in December 2025, Urs Fischer has stabilized the team: Only one defeat in nine games across all competitions underlines the new consistency.
However, there are still uncertainties in terms of personnel. Andreas Hanche-Olsen missed the win against Augsburg due to injury and could miss out again.
Maxim Leitsch, on the other hand, is on the verge of a return to defence and could at least take a seat on the bench against Dortmund, while Anthony Caci is still working on his comeback after his adductor injury.
Mainz will therefore continue to rely on key players like Amiri to continue their form.
