Olympic Men, Semi-finals on Friday, 20.02.2026, 16:40
The Canadians narrowly escaped the worst-case scenario. To move out with this squad only to be eliminated in the quarter-finals? In any case, I would not have been surprised if they had been denied entry until further notice in this case!
The fact that three of the four quarter-final pairings went into overtime shows how close all teams are in terms of quality. Consequently, I wouldn’t be surprised if 60 minutes were not enough this time either.
Personally, I decided on a Canada Finland tip, which reads in betting jargon Victory FIN with HC +2.5 and promises odds of about 1.72 on every sports betting app we have tested in detail.
This is by no means absurd, as the Scandinavians can bring even more quality to the ice than the Czechs in terms of NHL power. And as is well known, they almost threw the Maple Leaves out of the tournament!
Of course, the Maple Leafs’ squad makes a massive impression on anyone who is even vaguely interested in ice hockey. The bookmakers in particular are extremely impressed by this – in view of the once again low Canada odds, which they have announced for the semi-finals this time.
However, anyone can beat anyone in the NHL, and “Team Suomi”, which is interspersed with North American professional players from head to toe, is quite capable of causing a sensation in my eyes.
Winning Finland at odds of about 6.00 is of course risky, but a bet with positive expected value. If these two nations were to play against each other five times in a row with this line-up, I would see the Scandinavians win two games!
Because so far, this pick has always been successful. The shooting star of the Maple Leaves has scored at least one goal in every game at this tournament – and do you want to hear his haul so far? Five goals and four assists in just four games – that’s unbelievable!
In the event of success, there will be odds of about 2.27 this time if the San Jose Sharks youngster manages to trick the Finnish defense as well!
Speaking of defense: In my opinion, the Canadian defense is overrated by the bookmakers. In any case, I see a relatively high degree of “value” in the bet Finland over 1.5 goals at odds around 1.70.
France has already scored a brace against the Maple Leafs and the Czech Republic even a hat-trick. I don’t see why the Finnish front row with Hintz, Rantanen and Granlund, which has plenty of NHL power, shouldn’t succeed in something similar.
Especially since it may only be a small side note, but the Scandinavians have scored almost as many goals at this tournament (19) as Canada itself (24).
The direct comparison is only partially interesting. Because the only duel between the two nations that has a high significance with regard to the semi-finals is the encounter at the 4-Nations Face-off.
In February 2025, the Canadians were able to win 5-3 in full gear against a Finnish selection that was also top-notch – but quite narrowly.
The Scandinavians took the goalie off the ice at the end and then conceded an empty-netter. Consequently, you understand why I can’t quite accept this blatant difference within the Canada Finland odds traded by the bookies.
Conclusion: Maybe Canada will actually play for gold soon. But it will certainly not be as one-sided an affair as the bookmakers would have you believe.
The Czechs have already proven that the all-star squad from North America is also only boiling with water – and their squad is not quite as strong in terms of quality as that of the Finns.
So if the Scandinavians get the best out of themselves and don’t make a false start like they did against Switzerland in the quarterfinals, then I wouldn’t want to rule out an overtime in which anything is possible …
