Mainz – HSV Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 23 on Friday, 20/02/2026 at 20:30 CET
At the start of the 23rd matchday, I took the Mainz Hamburg tip to the chest for you. Here are two teams that have recently been able to get some breathing space in the relegation battle and now just don’t want to let up.
My absolute top tip for this match is a goal scorer bet. I’m committed: Nadiem Amiri will score for Mainz. At NEO.bet you get strong odds of about 3.00, which I think you just have to take with you. Why? The man is in absolute top form.
Amiri is the linchpin of the Mainz game and is on an incredible run. He has netted six times in the last six games and is also the regular and ice-cold penalty taker. For a team that often provokes fouls in the penalty area, that’s worth its weight in gold.
The duel on Friday evening is more than just a normal league game. Mainz are currently in 14th place with 21 points and have only a narrow lead of two points over the relegation spot, which Werder Bremen currently occupies. A defeat would be fatal.
Hamburg, on the other hand, travels as a promoted team with a broad chest. The Rothosen are in a sensational ninth place and have built up a cushion of six points on the dangerous zone with 25 points. Staying in the league seems within reach.
Mainz – HSV Prediction & Betting Tips
If the goalscorer bet on Amiri is too tricky for you, I have a few other interesting options for your Mainz Hamburg bets. Mainz’s home record under new coach Urs Fischer is simply impressive and a clear indication.
The classic winning tip on Mainz is worth considering. Three home wins in a row are an announcement, while HSV has only won once on the road. At Interwetten, there are solid odds of 2.05 for the home win, which fairly rewards the risk.
Another bet I have in mind is “Both teams to score”. Mainz is always good for a goal at home, but defensively has the second-worst expected goals conceded in the league. Hamburg even scored twice against Bayern recently. Sounds like goals on both sides!
What you need to know about Mainz vs. HSV betting
- Mainz are unbeaten in four home games and have won the last three.
- Hamburg scored 19 of its 25 points at home and won only once on the road.
- In six of Mainz’s last seven league games, more than 2.5 goals have been scored.
- Nadiem Amiri was responsible for 36% of all Mainz goals in the Bundesliga this season.
Mainz – HSV: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Is FSV stalking HSV? For this purpose, our AI model has made its very own calculations and serves you three additional tip alternatives in its Mainz HSV AI prediction.
First of all, the selection of the “Double Chance X2” at odds around 1.75 at bookmakers with Paysafecard is interesting. Of course, the idea is not plucked out of thin air. After all, the Hamburg team has lost only one of the last seven games.
“Draw at half-time” also takes a similar line. It is unlikely that FSV will be able to convert its home advantage into a lead before the break. The odds around 2.00 are completely okay in my opinion.
As a safety-first approach, the AI finally brings the goal bet “Under 3.5 goals” into play. The odds in the sports betting apps are about 1.45 and are therefore just playable as a single tip. So if you shy away from the risk, you’ve come to the right place.
The best odds for Mainz vs. HSV
I once fired up our AI tool to get a data-based assessment. The analysis supports the home side’s role as favourites. The machine calculates a 43.2% probability of victory for Mainz, while HSV only has 31.6%.
This is also reflected in the Mainz Hamburg odds, which give the hosts an implicit chance of victory of around 48%. The fact that Hamburg are considered outsiders is absolutely no surprise to me with only one away win in the entire season.
It will be exciting with the alternative betting markets. The Asian Handicap Line is at Mainz -0.25. For you, this means that if you win at home, the bet wins completely. In the event of a draw, you will get half of your stake back. A fair deal.
For the Asian over, the line is 2.5 goals. Our analysis model expects an average of 2.69 goals per game (1.44 for Mainz and 1.25 for Hamburg), which is just above this mark. A game with at least three goals is therefore statistically likely.
The odds for the goal scorers are also interesting. The bookmakers see Armindo Sieb and Nelson Weiper in front, although both have only scored two measly goals this season. Here the true value is clearly with Amiri, the top scorer of the 05s.
This discrepancy between odds and actual performance is what makes betting on an Amiri goal so attractive. He is the man for the important goals, looks for the finish in the penalty area and, as I said, kicks the penalties. You shouldn’t miss this chance.
Mainz vs HSV Match Analysis:
This floodlit game promises a lot of excitement. Both teams come with a lot of self-confidence, but want to prove themselves in different regions of the table. It is a classic duel between home strength and away confidence that has recently emerged.
HSV has made the leap into midfield with two wins in a row and has somewhat shed its reputation as a pure home team. The first away win of the season in Heidenheim two weeks ago was a real chest solver for Merlin Polzin’s troops.
On the other side is Mainz, which has developed into a real home power under Urs Fischer. Since the Swiss has been on the sidelines, there have been only two defeats in nine league games – both away. At home, Mainz are still undefeated under him.
The bookmakers therefore see the home team as having a slight advantage. But HSV has proven that it can also win close games. This will not be a foregone conclusion for Mainz, even if the omens are clearly in their favor, which characterizes this Mainz Hamburg tip.
One must not forget that the first leg was a clear thing for Hamburg. They dispatched Mainz 4-0 in October. However, today’s Mainz team is completely different both on the pitch and on the bench than it was a few months ago.
Another advantage for the 05ers could be the lack of double burden. After 7th place in the Conference League preliminary round, the team can concentrate fully on the mission of staying in the Bundesliga for the time being.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz suffered a bitter 4-0 thrashing in Dortmund last week, in which everything was already decided at half-time. It was the heaviest defeat since November 2025 and the fourth time this season that the defence conceded four goals.
Despite this setback, the development under Urs Fischer is absolutely positive. In the last six league games, his team has won a strong four times. As a result, they have worked their way up to 14th place in the table and created a small but important cushion on the relegation zone.
Especially at home, things run like clockwork. The last three home games against direct competitors such as Heidenheim, Wolfsburg and Augsburg have all been won. The home arena has become a real fortress again, which is crucial for our forecast.
The team is only two wins away from equalling their own record of five home wins in a row from the 2024/25 season. That shows the energy the team can develop in front of its own fans. This home strength is the key to success.
The defeat against BVB was a damper, but not a broken leg. Dortmund plays in a different league and is fighting for the Champions League places. Against Hamburg, an opponent on an equal footing, Mainz now want to show their true home face and pick up the next points.
HSV Form Check
The promoted team from Hamburg travels to the Rhine with a good dose of self-confidence. Last weekend, the team turned around a deficit and celebrated an exhilarating 3-2 victory against Union Berlin. It was a game for morale.
This victory was the highlight of a series of five unbeaten games in the Bundesliga. HSV has thus catapulted itself to ninth place in the table – the best position of the entire season. For the first time, the traditional club is in the upper half of the table.
With 25 points on the account and twelve matchdays to go, relegation seems almost certain. Coach Merlin Polzin only needs about ten more points in purely mathematical terms to be able to plan for next season in the Bundesliga.
However, HSV’s great strength is and remains its home strength. They are still unbeaten in their home Volksparkstadion in 2026. 19 of the 25 points of the season were scored here. So far, only one game has been won away from home. This statistic is a clear warning signal.
Man of the match against Union was Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer with a brace. The 24-year-old striker was a constant source of trouble, had seven shots on goal and increased his goal tally to seven goals for the season. The Mainz defence will have to pay special attention to him.
