PSG – Monaco Tip Champions League, playoffs, second leg on Wednesday, 25.02.2026 at 21:00 CET
In view of the fact that Paris Saint-Germain was 2-0 down after 18 minutes in the Champions League play-off first leg against league rivals Monaco, the starting position before the second leg could hardly be better for the capitals.
After all, the defending champions turned up the heat in the course of the game and are already with one foot in the round of 16 after the 3-2 victory.
In my PSG Monaco tip, I take aim at the bet “Win PSG & Under 5.5 goals” at odds around 1.55 at Oddset. I don’t think that Monaco can put the capital club in serious trouble.
In general, it can be said that the Monegasques are not exactly in good form. In Ligue 1, it is only enough for eighth place. And after only three wins in the last ten games, AS cannot exactly go into the duel with PSG with the greatest confidence.
At PSG, you have the feeling this season that only the bare minimum is being done. In the league, they are the league leaders, but with a two-point lead over Lens, the title is far from over.
And even in the Champions League, the 11th place in the preliminary round was at best decent. So I don’t expect a PSG performance against Monaco either.
PSG – Monaco Prediction & Betting
As a first tip alternative, I would like to recommend the “draw at half-time”. PSG will set up the Monegasques without taking any last risk. In any case, a 1-1 draw at half-time wouldn’t surprise me. The odds for a draw after the first round are very lucrative at about 3.00.
The classic “Both Teams Score” is also interesting. I believe Monaco can score exactly one goal, while PSG will probably not score more than three. The odds of about 1.60 can easily be played as a single bet.
And while we’re at it, I can bring the “2-1 for PSG” into play. With a free bet up your sleeve, you don’t have to take any risk with odds of 10.
What you need to know about PSG vs. Monaco betting
- The comeback in the first leg from 0-2 to 3-2 was the first time in this century that Paris Saint-Germain was able to win a Champions League knockout match after a two-goal deficit. In addition, Vitinha missed a penalty at 2-0 and PSG had a total of 30 shots on goal and 80.4 percent possession against AS Monaco.
- Monaco faces an extremely difficult task on Wednesday. The Monegasques have been eliminated in each of the last three Champions League knockout duels and have not reached the round of 16 since the 2016/17 season, when a young Kylian Mbappe led the team to the semi-finals.
- This season, Monaco have won just six of their 18 away games in all competitions. The most recent Champions League away game ended with a clear 6-1 defeat at Real Madrid – at that time the Monegasques were priced similarly high in the 1×2 market as they are now.
- Vitinha is one of the outstanding players in the competition in the passing game in the final third: Only Joshua Kimmich (245) has played more passes in the attacking third than the PSG midfielder (236) this Champions League season. At the same time, no other player has more successful passes in this zone than Vitinha, who scored 207 of his 236 attempts.
PSG – Monaco: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model has the playoff games in the three major European Cup competitions on its screen. A PSG Monaco AI prediction is the logical consequence.
In the first tip, the digital brain chooses a classic safety-first approach. “Win PSG” is a safe bet from the point of view of the AI, but it also only offers odds around 1.30. That’s one of the reasons why I switched to a combination bet for my main tip.
The second selection brings you odds of around 1.55 at the German bookmakers. Here the bet is “Win PSG & PSG under 4.5 goals”. From my point of view, a suitable alternative to my tip, even if not all bookmakers have this combination on offer.
Finally, the model recommends an “Asian handicap bet of -2.0 on Paris”. The odds of just under 2.00 are extremely lucrative. Nevertheless, I would think very carefully about the selection. After all, PSG doesn’t have to win big to make it to the round of 16.
The best odds for PSG vs. Monaco
The 1×2 odds in the duel Paris Saint-Germain against AS Monaco clearly speak for the reigning French champions. PSG’s 1×2 odds imply a 79% probability of a home win, while Monaco at the Parc des Princes are only given an 11% probability of winning.
The Asian Handicap line is at PSG -1.75. For a full win, PSG bettors need a win with at least a three-goal difference. A win with exactly two goals ahead leads to half a win. In the event of a closer PSG win, a draw or an away win, on the other hand, the Monaco +1.75 bet will pay off.
The Asian goal line is set at over/under 3.75 goals. Four goals mean half a win for over 3.75 tips, five or more goals mean the full return. If a maximum of three goals are scored, Under 3.75 bets will be paid out in full. The high-scoring first leg (3-2 for PSG) explains this comparatively high goal line from the bookmakers’ point of view.
In the market for the Anytime goalscorer, Ousmane Dembele is considered the favorite, just ahead of Gonçalo Ramos. Dembele was rested at the weekend due to minor complaints, his appearance in the second leg is still open, according to reports from Paris. The Ballon d’Or winner has scored three goals and assisted another in his last three appearances.
PSG vs Monaco Match Analysis:
Paris Saint-Germain go into the game with a goal advantage from the first leg, but it is to be expected that the hosts will play offensively from the start – even if they do not necessarily have to score.
Luis Enrique’s team clearly dominated the first leg, played five times as many passes as Monaco and ended up with an xG value (expected goals) 1.9 higher than their opponents. The reigning European title holders are at home this time and will try to decide the match early with a strong start.
The position changes in the offensive lines put Monaco’s defence under massive pressure in the first leg – and there is much to suggest that this picture will be repeated.
Enrique’s variable attacking trio is likely to create numerous scoring chances again. Sebastien Pocognoli’s team will have to hope that PSG will be wasteful in front of goal and show maximum efficiency themselves in order to have a realistic chance of qualifying.
Monaco have only kept three clean sheets in 18 away games this season. PSG also scored in 15 of their 16 home games, which is why a goalless game by the hosts is hardly imaginable.
Accordingly, a comeback of Monaco is considered extremely unlikely – but an early away goal could at least give the guests a hint of hope.
PSG Form Check
Paris Saint-Germain can make it to the round of 16 of the Champions League with a win or a draw – it would be the 14th qualification in a row. The basis for this is a remarkable comeback in the first leg.
The comeback from 0-2 to 3-2 last week was the first time in this century that PSG was able to win a Champions League knockout game after falling behind by two goals.
The success was deserved: Vitinha missed a penalty with the score at 2-0, and Paris also had 30 shots on goal and 80.4 percent possession in the first leg against Monaco.
At the weekend, PSG returned to the top of Ligue 1 thanks to a 3-0 win over Metz, also benefiting from Monaco’s win over Lens.
Historically, the Parisians have been extremely successful in European duels with French teams: All three Champions League games against Ligue 1 clubs have been won, with a total of 13 goals scored.
The 20-point lead in the league underlines PSG’s dominance. In addition, the Parisians are unbeaten in eight of their last nine competitive games against Monaco at the Parc des Princes and have won the last two home games with an aggregate score of 8-0.
The qualification of the reigning champions thus seems almost certain. In the past, PSG won the first leg of a major European knockout duel away from home 18 times – only once did they miss out on progression.
Monaco Form Check
Monaco goes into the second leg of this encounter from a familiar starting position: a win is necessary to keep the hope of the Champions League alive.
However, the guests know that they can challenge even top teams in Ligue 1. At the weekend, they defeated Lens 3-2, which allowed Paris Saint-Germain to return to the top of the table. In addition, Monaco has already celebrated a 1-0 home win against PSG this season.
On Wednesday, however, Monaco faces a huge task. The Monegasques have been eliminated in each of the last three Champions League knockout duels and have not reached the round of 16 since the 2016/17 season, when a young Kylian Mbappe led the team to the semi-finals.
Only one of the last five competitive games outside the principality has ended in a win for Sebastien Pocognoli’s team. In four Champions League away games this season, Monaco have conceded a total of twelve goals.
To survive, Monaco needs almost a magical night. Across all competitions, they have lost 13 of their last 14 duels in Paris (one draw).
It’s been almost a decade since Monaco beat PSG at the Parc des Princes, most recently in a 2-0 away win in Ligue 1 in March 2016.
