Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao Tip Copa del Rey, semi-finals, second leg on Wednesday, 04/03/26 at 21:00 CET
Strictly speaking, this is a cup second leg, but I personally am less interested in who will prevail in the end, but rather whether I could actually be right with my Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao prediction.
I think that with the option Over 2.5 goals you have a good chance of getting odds of about 2.12. Incidentally, these would also be excellent for fulfilling the conditions of a selected sports betting bonus.
Even the first exchange of blows would have deserved a hat-trick, as the combined xG value was 3.16. So the chances for a high final result were definitely there!
The first leg still ended with a manageable 1-0 win for “La Real”, but that also means that the Basque neighbours now have to take a different, much more aggressive approach.
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao AI predictions:
I already told you the xG value from the first leg at the beginning. But did you know that of the total 3.16, 2.35 are due to Real Sociedad’s offensive efforts?
As a result, you can probably now better understand why our Real Sociedad Athletic Bilbao AI prediction suggests making a bet that would have been successful in any of La Real’s last five home games.
The Pick Real Sociedad 2+ goals is therefore almost a must in my eyes, especially at values around 2.30 at every tested German betting provider. Especially since they recently achieved this feat at the Reale Arena even against a top team like Barcelona.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Real Sociedad |
Draw |
Win Athletic Bilbao |
| 43.6% |
27.6% |
28.8% |
1st half: Scoring both is of course a bet at odds of around 5.10, which is rarely successful, especially in this usually rather low-scoring Basque regional derby. But you can also fall back on an unconditional freebet at any time.
By the way, our data model also recommends the pick promotion: Athletic Bilbao at equally attractive odds of about 4.15 at Winamax. But I personally don’t think much of that.
Because Real Sociedad is simply a tad stronger at the moment, and if the impending absence of Bilbao midfielder Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta for the second leg actually comes true, then I see the chances of success for this bet even in the single-digit range.
What you need to know about Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Bilbao betting
- Real Sociedad proves taker qualities; in the last five games, in which the team fell behind 0-1, they lost only once (2 wins, 2 draws) and often turned the games around in the closing stages.
- Guaranteed spectacle in the Basque Country: The statistics of both teams promise goals at both ends of the field – while Real Sociedad have scored both teams in 13 of their last 15 competitive games, Athletic Bilbao have scored in eleven of their last twelve games.
- Bilbao’s late bloomer: Athletic develop into a real threat in the second half; the last seven competitive goals of the “Lions” have all been scored after the change of ends, which requires patience from the fans who have travelled with them.
- “La Real” advantage in the cup: After the 1-0 first-leg win thanks to Benat Turrientes’ goal, Real Sociedad go into the second leg with a cushion; history speaks for them, as Athletic have only won one of the last five direct duels.
