Stuttgart – Leverkusen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 33 on Saturday, 09/05/2026 at 15:30 CET
On the penultimate matchday of the Bundesliga, a real final for the Champions League awaits us. My Stuttgart – Leverkusen tip focuses on a duel before which both teams are level on points and a win is essential for survival. A draw doesn’t really help any of the opponents.
History also speaks for this Stuttgart Leverkusen bet. Five of the last six direct duels have ended with four or more goals. The first leg was a clear example of the attacking potential of this pairing with a 4-1 win for Stuttgart. I expect a spectacle.
Both teams are fighting for the coveted fourth place together with Hoffenheim and are level on points with 58 points. Only one of these three teams will play in the Champions League next season, the other two in the Europa League.
Stuttgart head into the game after a turbulent 3-3 draw against Hoffenheim, while Leverkusen arrive with an impressive 4-1 win against Leipzig behind them. Leverkusen are the more in-form team, but Stuttgart have the home advantage on their side.
Stuttgart – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
An interesting option is betting on a tie. Stuttgart have often shared the points recently, and four of Leverkusen’s last ten league games have also ended in draws. Five of the last eight direct duels did not find a winner after 90 minutes.
For the risk-takers among you, the bet “Both teams will score in the first half” might be worth considering. Given the pressure to win, I expect an attacking start from both sides, which makes early goals likely.
Leverkusen in particular is known for strong first halves away from home. The Werkself have scored 20 of their 29 away goals before the break. This statistic reinforces the likelihood that we could see goals from both teams early in the game.
What you need to consider when betting on Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen
- It’s Stuttgart’s 51st competitive game of the season, for the Werkself it’s the 50th competitive game.
- Leverkusen have won four of their last five league games.
- In the last two duels, a total of 12 goals have been scored.
- Both clubs have scored 66 league goals this season.
- Patrik Schick has scored nine times in his last six appearances.
Stuttgart – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool gives Stuttgart a slightly higher chance of winning at 45.9% than Leverkusen at 32.5%. The probability of a draw is 21.5%. This coincides with the assessment that the hosts are slightly favourites, but it will be close.
The artificial intelligence predicts a total of 3.5 goals for the game. Stuttgart is credited with 1.9 goals and Leverkusen with 1.6 goals. This prediction clearly supports our main bet on a high-scoring game with more than 3.5 goals.
The Asian Handicap Line is set at -0.25 from Stuttgart’s point of view. This means that you win fully if you win at home. An AHC +0.25 on Leverkusen would give you the full profit if you win, if you draw, you get half the profit. This reflects VfB’s slight role as favourites.
The Asian Handicap Line for over-goals is also interesting, which is 3.5. Here, it takes at least four goals to win, which is exactly our bet. The data suggests that the offensive orientation of both teams could make this possible.
In the goal scorer bets, the calculations see good chances for the top strikers. Deniz Undav has a goal probability of 48%, while his counterpart Patrik Schick is rated at 44%. This also clearly speaks for goals on both sides of the field.
In summary, the AI analysis expects an open game with goals. The probabilities and the predicted values suggest that bets on goals, such as our Stuttgart – Leverkusen tip on over 3.5 goals in the match, have a solid foundation.
The best odds for Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen
A look at the Stuttgart Leverkusen odds shows that the hosts go into the game as slight favorites. The implied probability of winning is around 48%, which is mainly due to the home advantage and the strong season they have played so far.
Leverkusen are given a chance of winning by around 34%. Although they are away from home, the Werkself should not be underestimated. Their current form is impressive and makes them an extremely dangerous opponent who are good for a win at any time.
The odds for a draw are also tempting. Historically, 24 of the 89 BL duels between these two teams have ended in a draw. In view of the table situation, where no one wants to lose, a draw is an absolutely conceivable scenario.
The Stuttgart – Leverkusen betting odds make it clear how balanced this duel is expected. While Stuttgart are favourites at home, the form and efficiency clearly speak in favour of Leverkusen.
Stuttgart vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
This game is a six-point game in the fight for the Champions League. With Leverkusen ahead due to the better goal difference, Stuttgart is under pressure. The hosts need to win to stay in control on the final matchday.
We can therefore expect Stuttgart to put the pressure on from the start. With an average of 5.97 shots on goal per home game, they are one of the most attacking teams in the league. They will try to make full use of this advantage in their home arena.
The first leg ended 4-1 for VfB, but Bayer 04 also had good chances with an xG value of 1.96. That shows that both defensive lines are vulnerable and we can prepare for a game with opportunities on both sides.
Leverkusen coach Kasper Hjulmand will probably take a more wait-and-see approach to his team as long as it is a draw. But the quality in the squad is undisputed, in order to set pinpricks again and again through quick counterattacks or set pieces.
As the table already suggests, this encounter can tip in either direction. Stuttgart’s home strength gives them confidence, but Leverkusen absolutely have what it takes to take all three points out of the MHPArena and take a big step.
Ultimately, the form on the day will decide. Stuttgart will throw everything into the balance with the crowd behind them. But Leverkusen’s current winning streak gives the visitors the confidence they need to survive in this decisive game.
Stuttgart Form Check
Under coach Sebastian Hoeneß, Stuttgart has developed into a real contender for the Champions League. But shortly before the finish, the engine sputtered. With only one win from the last five Bundesliga games, the pressure is now enormously high.
The last game against Hoffenheim was a rollercoaster ride of emotions. After captain Atakan Karazor was sent off, the team fought back from a two-goal deficit and secured a 3-3 draw with a goal in the 95th minute.
Despite the recent lack of form, Stuttgart remains a team with high intensity and an xG value of 1.75 per game. Defensively, however, they have recently shown themselves vulnerable and have conceded nine goals in the last four competitive games.
The absence of the suspended captain Karazor is particularly bitter for this decisive game. His presence in midfield will definitely be missed. Now other players like Angelo Stiller have to step into the breach and take responsibility.
VfB have already scored 36 goals at home this season and are a force to be reckoned with. This home strength should now also be the deciding factor against Leverkusen to keep the dream of the Champions League alive. Failure would be a great disappointment.
For the Swabians, it is already the 51st game of a long season that has also led them to the DFB Cup final. A place outside the top four would feel like a defeat after the way things have gone so far, which is why the focus is fully on this game.
Leverkusen form check
Leverkusen have moved up to fourth place at the most important point in the season. After a mixed start to 2026, the Werkself have rediscovered their identity and won four of their last five games through strong counter-pressing.
The team is currently the most in-form team in the Bundesliga. The clear 4-1 win against Leipzig last weekend as well as the recent away wins in Dortmund and Cologne impressively underline the excellent condition of the Rhinelanders.
Particularly noteworthy is striker Patrik Schick, who is in absolute top form. The Czech Republic international has scored nine goals in his last six games and is the life insurance in Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s attack.
The return of Nathan Tella after his injury and the strong performances of the only 20-year-old Ibrahim Maza in midfield have also stabilized the team. The consistency that was often lacking before has given way to impressive sovereignty.
There are only two games left to play, and the appearance in Stuttgart could already seal qualification for the Champions League. A win would all but secure fourth place and take the pressure off the final matchday.
In view of the uncertainty as to whether fifth place will be enough for the Champions League, Leverkusen does not want to leave anything to chance. A place among the top four is the clear goal in order to take the momentum into the next season and build it further.
