Turkey – Paraguay Tip Football World Cup, preliminary round group D, 2nd matchday on Saturday, 20.06.2026 at 05:00 a.m.
Turkey is the big loser of Matchday 1, but they can strike back on Saturday! Because according to my Turkey Paraguay tip, the strong offensive will make the difference in Santa Clara.
In the wide range of Bwin bets around the World Cup, which is taking the internet by storm these days, I have therefore deliberately chosen the selection Turkey 2+ goals at odds of around 2.12.
The reasons for this are obvious: Paraguay’s defence looked very vulnerable against the USA and conceded four goals. Turkey, on the other hand, fired 30 shots at the opponent’s goal. You can’t have so much bad luck a second time within a few days!
Their only previous head-to-head meeting ended goalless in a friendly in June 1995, but Paraguay have often lost out to UEFA-affiliated nations at World Cups.
Fans of the Ottomans among you will be reluctant to call up the current World Cup 2026 odds. After all, after the opening defeat, the bookmakers have now degraded Turkey from a blatant outsider to the World Cup title to a conventional competitor.
But regardless of this, the Bwin freebet worth 20 euros is still a good reason to contact the bookmaker these days. Using the instructions below, I will explain to you in just four steps how you can take advantage of this offer.
With a view to Tuesday, this is above all 1st goalscorer: Arda Güler at increased odds of 9.00, after he was one of the most striking offensive players of his team for long stretches against Australia. But I also think the selection of 1st goal: Turkey (1st half) is extremely interesting.
Turkey – Paraguay Prediction & Betting
So I still see plenty of value bet potential in a simple win bet on Turkey at odds of about 2.00. The Ottomans’ squad is better in terms of quality, while “La Albirroja” was far too passive against the USA for long stretches.
That’s why I wouldn’t shy away from betting a little more offensively on the Montella eleven if I were you. For example, how about a hedged Asian handicap bet like Turkey -1.0 at odds of around 2.90 at bet365?
If Turkey wins by at least two goals, the full odds will be paid. If, on the other hand, the game ends in a narrow victory such as 1:0, 2:1, 3:2 or 4:3, you will at least get your stake back.
If Vincenzo Montella’s team converts their chances more consistently this time, I would also give Turkey to score good chances in both halves at betting odds between 3.20 and 3.50. The offensive potential for this is definitely there.
This is what you need to consider when betting on Turkey vs. Paraguay
- Turkey lost their opening game despite 30 shots on goal.
- Paraguay had the youngest World Cup starting eleven since 1998.
- The knockout round chances of both teams have fallen sharply.
- Arda Güler had 8 shots, the most in the tournament so far.
Despite my confidence that the Turks will win this game, it is unlikely that their own backline will perform flawlessly. Consequently, I put both teams to the test at 1.86.
Based on this, some of you could also tend to win Turkey & both teams score. After all, the betting odds of about 4.05 are generous for this and a 2:1 or a 3:1 are definitely within the realm of possibility.
Meanwhile, a subtle but interesting Turkey Paraguay tip is aimed at the tendency of the Montella eleven to cause chaos in the opponent’s penalty area shortly after the change of ends.
In any case, I also bet on a goal in the period 45th to 60th minute at attractive odds of about 2.82 because the Ottomans were surprisingly able to score a goal in the 53rd or 54th minute in five games in a row until the 2-0 defeat against Australia!
Turkey – Paraguay: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our calculation model sees Turkey going into this match as the clear favorite with a probability of victory of 48.6%. For a draw, on the other hand, the probability of a draw is 26.9%, while a victory for Paraguay is even rated at only 24.5%. The data therefore supports the role of favorites.
In terms of “entertainment”, the tool predicts 1.34 hits for the Ottomans and 0.86 for the South Americans. The xG overall forecast of a total of 2.21 goals thus points to a rather low-scoring game.
However, I don’t quite agree with that, because in my Paraguay Turkey prediction I strongly assume that the Montella eleven can almost single-handedly conjure up three goals on the tableau thanks to a slightly better chance conversion this time.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Turkey |
Draw |
Victory Paraguay |
| 48.6% |
26.9% |
24.5% |
It is interesting to look at the Asian Handicap Line, which is -0.5 for Turkey. This means that the Turks have to win the game for a bet on them to be successful. In view of the data available, this seems to be a plausible scenario.
The odds analysis also shows that the probability of Kerem Aktürkoglu scoring is 32%. His teammates Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz, on the other hand, have an implied probability of 31% of getting on the scoresheet.
The Turkey Paraguay odds thus broadly reflect the assessment of the bookmakers, who also see Montella’s team ahead on Matchday 2 of Group D.
The Best Odds for Turkey vs. Paraguay
Turkey, Paraguay, betting odds of leading betting providers, favor the team from the Bosphorus. An odd of around 2.00 for a win is more than fair, considering how much offensive potential there is in the team, even if there was a lack of efficiency in the first game.
Paraguay thus goes into the game as a clear outsider. The high odds of up to 4.00 for the South Americans to win are tempting, but their performance against the USA gives little cause for hope. Defensively, they were extremely vulnerable and harmless going forward.
A draw is a conceivable option in view of the high pressure on both sides. However, a point split doesn’t really help either team, which is why I expect both to play for a win and not shy away from the risk.
Based on my analysis, the biggest value seems to be bets on the Turkish offensive.
The high number of shots in the first game and Paraguay’s shaky defense speak a clear language in this regard and favor a Turkey Paraguay tip, which assumes several goals by the Ottomans.
Turkey vs Paraguay Tactics & Match Analysis:
After the defeats, both teams’ chances of progressing have dropped drastically. Especially for Turkey, the fall from 83% to 48% is a bitter disappointment. Now only a victory counts to keep hope alive.
With goal differences of -2 (Turkey) and -3 (Paraguay), another defeat would mean certain elimination. Even three points could be too few to advance as one of the best third-placed teams in the group. The pressure could hardly be greater.
The big question is whether the fear of defeat will dominate the game. A cautious approach by both teams could lead to a draw, in which both would then have to put all their eggs in one basket in the last group game.
In terms of quality, Turkey is the stronger and more experienced team. It is expected to determine the pace of the game. However, the decisive factor will be whether they can eliminate the lack of penetration from the Australia game.
It is possible that coach Montella will bring Kenan Yildiz from the start to breathe more life into the offensive. Paraguay, on the other hand, must put aside the passivity of the first half against the USA to have a chance.
Our Turkey Paraguay AI prediction continues to favor the Ottomans but expects a close and high-scoring game. The difficult starting position in each case could contribute to a nerve-wracking duel, in which in the end little things will decide between victory and defeat.
Turkey Form Curve
The defeat against Australia was one of the biggest surprises of the first matchday. Despite overwhelming superiority, Vincenzo Montella’s team failed to pick up a point in their first tournament appearance since 2002.
Although Turkey dominated the game at the beginning, they were counterattacked twice. The attacks were often limited to promising long-range shots by Arda Güler and Ferdi Kadioglu, which underlined the lack of creativity in the final third.
The statistic of 30:9 shots on goal in favor of Turkey is impressive at first, no question. Nevertheless, they won the expected goals battle by a narrow margin of 1.33 to 0.77, which proves that only a few of their chances were really compelling.
This lack of clear scoring chances is worrying. The low xG value per shot shows that the team had difficulty cracking the opponent’s defense and getting into promising positions.
Arda Güler (8 shots) and substitute Kenan Yildiz (6 shots) were very active, but their combined xG of 0.49 underlines the lack of effectiveness in front of goal. The team urgently needs to work on this.
Despite a record number of space-winning passes in midfield, Turkey failed to score for the first time in nine games. But according to my Turkey Paraguay prediction, they will perform much better against Paraguay this time!
Paraguay Form Curve
Paraguay had no chance in the 4-1 defeat against the USA and disappointed all along the line. The start to the World Cup could hardly have gone worse, and the team now has its back to the wall.
Although they fielded their youngest World Cup starting XI since 1998, they lacked the intensity and conviction needed to pose a serious threat. Young people alone could not compensate for the qualitative deficiencies.
The performance was both playfully and statistically weak. With only 34.7% possession and an xG value of a meagre 0.47, they fell far short of expectations. The offensive practically did not take place.
A telling fact: Paraguay only managed a single pass sequence with ten or more passes during the entire game. This is the worst value of the tournament so far and underlines the lack of play.
The defense, which was so stable in qualifying, also showed its worst side. Three goals conceded in the first half were a shock from which the team never recovered. The defense seemed completely disoriented in places.
With now four consecutive games without a win at World Cups, Paraguay must now urgently show a reaction. Another defeat would seal the early exit and increase the disappointment in their own country.
