Atletico – Malaga Tip La Liga, 1st matchday on Wednesday, 19.08.26 at 21:00
To kick off the new La Liga season, I’ve picked out an exciting game for you. My Atletico Madrid Malaga tip focuses on the duel between the established heavyweight and the ambitious rising star from Andalusia.
I bet on a combination bet, which earns me odds of 1.65, Win Atletico Madrid & Atletico scores under 4 goals. The home side are clear favourites, but I don’t necessarily expect a shooting festival at the start of the season.
The “Rojiblancos” are extremely strong at home, winning 15 of their 19 games at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in the previous season. A win against the promoted team is therefore very likely. But the odds for a pure home win are too low for me personally.
That’s why I combine the victory with the goal bet. Atletico only scored four or more goals in a league game twice in the whole of last season. The offense still has to find itself after Griezmann’s departure.
For Atletico Madrid, after a titleless season, it is all about attacking again. The goal is clear: to secure Champions League qualification and have a serious say in the title race. A home win at the start is mandatory.
Malaga are celebrating their return to Spain’s top flight after years of absence. For the club from Andalusia, the goal of the season can only be to stay in the league. Anything else would be a huge surprise for the young team.
Atletico vs. Malaga AI predictions:
Our AI tool has also calculated the game and comes to a clear conclusion. The probability of Atletico winning at home is estimated at 73.0%, while a victory for Malaga is only 10.2%.
Artificial intelligence also provides interesting values for goals. She predicts 2.21 goals for Atletico and only 0.67 for Malaga. The total number of expected goals is 2.88, which supports my bet on under 4 home goals.
The bookmakers share this assessment and see Atletico as the overwhelming favourites. The implied chance of victory in the 1X2 market is even around 77%. A point for the promoted team from Malaga would be a big surprise.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Atletico |
Draw |
Victory Malaga |
| 77% |
15% |
8% |
Due to this clear role as favourites, the Asian Handicap Line is at -1.5 for Atletico. This means that for a successful bet in this market, Simeone’s team would have to win by at least two goals.
Interesting with old and new bookmakers is also the bet on the number of goals. The Asian Handicap Line for overs is 2.5, 3.0. With exactly three goals in the match, half the winnings would be returned in an over-bet. This indicates an expectation of two to three goals.
Despite the expectation of an entertaining game, the bookmakers clearly favor the option that not both teams score. The probability that at least one team will keep a clean sheet is over 62%.
What you need to know about Atletico vs. Malaga betting
- Atletico Madrid lost only three home games in the last La Liga season.
- Malaga is playing its first season in the top flight since relegation in 2018.
- The bookmakers see “Both Score – No” as the most likely outcome (over 62% probability).
- Atletico’s top scorer from last year, Alexander Sorloth, is injured at the start of the season.
