France – Italy Tip Nations League Group A1, Matchday 3 on Friday, 02/10/2026 at 20:45 CET
For this cracker in the Nations League, I provide you with a detailed France – Italy tip. My main focus is on a player bet that is really worthwhile.
I’m betting that Désiré Doué will score a goal. The reason for this France Italy bet is simple: Without the injured Kylian Mbappé, Doué moves into the center of the French attack. He was already the most goal-oriented player in Zinédine Zidane’s team in the first few games. You will not only find an attractive odd of 2.30, but as a new customer you can get a 20-way odd on the betting market “Over 1.5 goals in the game”
The French lead the group with six points after two 1-0 victories against Turkey and Belgium and go into the game against their neighbours as clear favourites.
Italy, on the other hand, has made an impressive comeback after a 2-0 home defeat against Belgium. Coach Roberto Mancini’s side celebrated a clear 4-1 win in Turkey and now travel to the French capital with renewed confidence.
The bookmakers see the hosts as having a clear advantage. The odds indicate a chance of victory of over 66% for Les Bleus. But the Italians are known for surpassing themselves in big games, which makes things particularly exciting.
France vs. Italy AI Predictions:
Our AI tool has also analyzed the game and comes to a clear conclusion. The artificial intelligence sees the French as the clear favorite, which confirms the assessment of the betting providers. The calculated probability of victory is over 66 percent.
It gets interesting with the France – Italy betting odds on the handicap markets.
The Asian Handicap Line is -1.0 for the hosts. This means that you only win the bet if France wins by at least two goals. In the event of a narrow victory with a one-goal difference, the stake is returned.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory France |
Draw |
Victory Italy |
| 66% |
21.1% |
12.9% |
The goal bets point to an entertaining game. The Asian Handicap Line for over-goals has been set to 3.0, 3.5, with both options having almost identical odds. For example, at bet365 with 1,865 each.
This reflects the expectation that some goals could be scored. If there are four or more goals, this bet wins in full, while if you score exactly three goals, you get at least half of your stake back. If two or fewer fall, the bet is completely lost.
What you need to know about France vs. Italy betting
- France have won 17 of their last 21 games.
- Italy have lost just one of their last 12 away matches (regular time).
- In the last 5 meetings, both teams have scored.
- Olise scored 6 goals in his last 5 appearances.
- Five of Italy’s last six games have ended with fewer than three goals.
