Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Saturday, 10.10.2026 at 15:30 CET
For our Paderborn Stuttgart tip, we look at a thrilling Bundesliga duel. After the international break, the promoted team from East Westphalia welcomes the Champions League participant and the omens could hardly be more different.
I commit myself here to the selection of victory VfB Stuttgart with handicap -1. The Swabians must finally deliver after the weak start to the season and Paderborn is the first really beatable opponent away from home for Sebastian Hoeneß’s team this season.
DAZN Bet offers attractive odds of 2.30 for this tip.Stuttgart won five of their six away wins by at least two goals last season. I trust them to have this offensive power again against the promoted team.
After the international break, the Bundesliga is back with an extremely exciting duel in East Westphalia. In the Home Deluxe Arena, there will be an unequal duel between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart.
Paderborn celebrated their first win of the season with a 3-1 win against Hoffenheim shortly before the break and now want to take this momentum with them. The stands should be filled to the last seat when the big favorite is a guest.
Meanwhile, the sports betting providers see VfB in the role of the clear favorite, although the previous yield of only three points from the first four games still leaves a lot to be desired. However, the quality in the Swabian squad is undeniable.
Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart Prediction & Betting Tips
An exciting Paderborn Stuttgart prediction concerns the number of goals. The bet Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals is a very good alternative. Stuttgart’s defence has been anything but solid so far and has not yet played a clean sheet.
This bet would have been successful in six of VfB’s last seven Bundesliga games. In addition, ten of the Swabians’ last eleven away games ended with goals on both sides and a total of more than 2.5 goals. An impressive statistic.
If you like it a little safer, you can of course also consider the Paderborn Stuttgart odds for a simple away win at 1.57 at bet365. Even though the start was bumpy, the higher quality of the VfB squad was to prevail against the promoted team in the end.
My Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart Tip Prediction
- Paderborn has the most clearances (42.3) and interceptions (14.0) per game.
- Stuttgart have scored at least twice in seven of their last ten away games in German competition.
- Josha Vagnoman is the only player from both teams to score more than one goal this season.
- The bet “Over 2.5 goals & both to score” has been successful in six of the last seven VfB games.
Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool also analyzed the game in detail. The probability of an away win for VfB Stuttgart is estimated at almost 60%, which impressively underlines the clear role of the Swabians as favourites.
The predicted goal numbers reflect this picture. While only 0.78 goals are expected for Paderborn, the value for VfB is 1.89 goals. These data support the assumption of a victory for the guests from the Ländle.
In total, the model expects 2.67 goals in the game. This coincides well with the bet on Over 2.5 goals, which has often been successful in the last VfB games and is also a good option here.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Paderborn |
Draw |
Victory VfB Stuttgart |
| 20% |
20% |
60% |
I also find the player bets interesting. A goal by Josha Vagnoman is worth considering. As the only multiple goal scorer of both squads and an offensively strong defender, odds of 3.80 are quite attractive for your bets.
I also like a bet on the highest-scoring half in the second half. Paderborn’s strength could diminish as the game goes on, which could open up more and more space for VfB for dangerous attacks.
Following on from this, you could also bet that the promising bet 2nd half: VfB 2+ goals will work out. If VfB’s pressure increases, I think this scenario is very realistic, especially in the final phase.
The best odds for Paderborn vs. VfB Stuttgart
The Paderborn Stuttgart betting odds for the outcome of the match show a very clear trend. A victory for the guests from Stuttgart is considered by the experts and also by the data to be by far the most likely result.
With a calculated chance of victory of almost 60%, VfB is the deserved favourite in this duel. The individual quality in the squad should clearly prevail against the promoted team at the end of the day.
A home win for Paderborn, on the other hand, would be a big surprise. The AI tool gives the East Westphalians only a small chance of about 20%. Despite the recent success against Hoffenheim, there is a lack of consistent penetration.
A draw is also around 20% likely to be as unlikely as a home win. It can be strongly assumed that one of the two teams will push for victory, especially the favored VfB Stuttgart.
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Match Analysis:
The surprising victory against Hoffenheim has of course given SC Paderborn an enormous boost. Another home win against a Champions League participant would be invaluable for the promoted team from East Westphalia in the relegation battle.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, went into the international break with two painful defeats. The job of coach Sebastian Hoeneß is not up for debate, but a win is now mandatory in order not to lose touch with the top places in the table.
Paderborn’s 3-1 victory was due more to merciless efficiency than to offensive fireworks. From an xG value of only 0.68, they scored three goals. That will hardly be repeated against a strong opponent like VfB.
I therefore expect leading Swabians and very deep-lying hosts on Saturday. Paderborn will be lurking on the counterattack and will try to surprise the sometimes vulnerable Stuttgart defence with quick counter-attacks.
This plan could well be crowned with success in places, as a clean sheet appearance by the Swabians does not seem particularly likely. An own goal for Paderborn is therefore firmly planned, which supports the bet on goals from both teams.
At the same time, results such as a 1:2 or 1:3 are the most likely outcomes according to the various calculation models. I agree with this assessment, as VfB Stuttgart’s offensive quality should be the deciding factor in the end.
Paderborn Form Check
For SC Paderborn 07, the international break may have come at an inopportune time. Coach Ralf Kettemann would certainly have liked to take the momentum after the 3-1 win over Hoffenheim with him to celebrate further successes.
This victory was the first three points in the Bundesliga for the East Westphalians in over six and a half years. It remains to be seen whether the momentum has now been lost somewhat due to the almost three-week interruption.
In order to stay in rhythm, a test match was played against the US club DC United. This was won by a narrow margin of 1-0 and served as an important preparation for the duel with VfB.
While the offensive output must be increased in the long term to stay in the league, the defensive commitment is top. Paderborn intercepts the most passes and has yet to concede a goal from a set piece.
However, the personnel situation remains somewhat tense. Although there were no new absences, Marcel Hoffmeier and a few other players are still missing important pillars in the squad of the promoted team.
After all, coach Ralf Kettemann was able to work intensively with almost all of his key players during the international break. This is a small advantage to prepare tactically optimally for the strong opponent from Stuttgart.
VfB Stuttgart Form Check
For VfB Stuttgart, on the other hand, the international break came at exactly the right time. Like a boxer in the round break, the Swabians were able to take a deep breath after two defeats in a row and regroup.
Coach Sebastian Hoeneß used the time for two very successful test matches. A 3-0 win against Heidenheim was followed by an even more impressive 5-0 win against Greuther Fürth, which should have given the team new self-confidence.
Particularly pleasing was Deniz Undav’s double goal in the friendly against Fürth. The national player stayed at home and was able to work on his form, which is of great importance for the upcoming game in Paderborn.
Somewhat surprising so far is the low yield of the VfB offensive, which is reflected in an xG value of only 7.6. This puts VfB only in midfield, but the tests showed the enormous potential in attack.
If the Swabians play as courageously up front as they did in the two test matches, the Paderborn defence is likely to have massive problems. The individual class of players like Undav, Führich or El Khannouss is simply enormously high.
In terms of personnel, there are no major new absences for Saturday. The absence of Tiago Tomás continues to hurt, but Hoeneß was able to work intensively with the non-nominated internationals such as Jamie Leweling.
