Copa America, semi-final, Thursday, 11.07.2024 at 02:00
Just a few days ago, I would have argued that the Neobet bonus is one of the best bookmaker offers this summer and that Uruguay can make it to the Copa America final.
However, while I still think the lucrative offer from the licensed bookmaker is unbeatable, my optimism about the “Celeste’s” chances of lifting their 14th competition trophy has diminished.
In my Uruguay Colombia betting tip, I will point out the serious deficiencies on the right side of the defense, which could decisively weaken this defense that has defended with ironclad resolve up to now.
The bookmakers are also signaling us in their Uruguay Colombia odds that a slight rethink has taken place on the betting markets
What a dream semi-final this is between two teams that have been counted among the teams that could make it to the final right from the start.
One thing in the Uruguayans’ favor is that they have just managed to knock out the five-time world champions, albeit “only” on penalties.
However, the absence of Araujo and Nandez is all the more serious and, according to my Uruguay Colombia prediction, will ultimately cost them a place in the final
The prediction of the bookmakers?
Just as the moon, earth and sun occasionally line up perfectly to create a solar eclipse, so too do the betting markets from time to time.
2.90, 2.65, 2.90 – this is how the current Uruguay Colombia odds of leading bookmakers read on average from left to right, which are open to all three possible 1X2 scenarios.
I believe that the bookmakers’ scales would have tipped slightly in favor of the Uruguayans in a comparison a few days ago, but the absence of two regular defenders weighs too heavily to ignore them completely
Analysis: Uruguay vs Colombia
Uruguay have defended masterfully so far! Even the last two test matches before the start of the tournament against two fellow participants such as Mexico (4-0) and Costa Rica (0-0) were won without conceding a goal.
Coach Bielsa’s work deserves much higher praise, however, because the goal conceded in the 3-1 opening victory over Panama remains the only time his own goalkeeper has had to reach behind him at the Copa America.
Even the USA (1-0) and Brazil (0-0) were unable to find a way past the “Celeste’s” strong defensive unit.
But Araujo – and this cannot be emphasized often enough – is an extremely important factor in the functioning of the Uruguayan defence. Without him, it will be difficult to keep a clean sheet from now on
Colombia are improving from game to game! In my opinion, finishing first in the group stage ahead of Brazil deserves more credit than Uruguay’s victory in the preliminary round.
Meanwhile, the famous “momentum” has clearly shifted to the Colombians, as they won their quarter-final match against Panama in impressive fashion (5:0).
Of course, the CONCACAF representatives did not pose much of a challenge, but the “Cafeteros” will have gained a great deal of confidence in the process.
James Rodriguez may no longer play a major role in club soccer, but whenever he puts on the national jersey, he inspires his teammates to perform at their absolute best
Quota analysis
It’s difficult to place a value bet on this match, as bookmakers without tax – as well as those with the annoying deduction – have not offered particularly attractive Uruguay Colombia odds for the most likely outcomes.
Trading under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.50 is simply not worth it from the perspective of a profit-oriented sports betting fan, but perhaps that is precisely why you should bet on the opposite course of the game.
Because the two absentees on the right side of the Uruguayan defense and the knowledge that the last competitive match in October 2023 resulted in an entertaining 2:2 suddenly make an over-2.5-goal bet much more interesting.
A penalty shoot-out at the end like in 2021?
Colombia have not beaten Uruguay in regulation time since 2014. The six international matches played since then have either gone to the “Celeste” or ended in a draw or extra time.
In this context, it is interesting to note that three years ago at the last edition of the Copa America there was a direct clash in the knockout phase, which ended in a very similar way to what you might expect on Thursday.
In that quarter-final, the score was still 0-0 after 90 minutes before the Colombians kept their cool in the subsequent penalty shoot-out
Colombia’s offense is impressive
Many pundits and bookmakers are predicting a 0-0 draw, which I think is a mistake.
Uruguay’s defense can easily flounder without Araujo as a conductor, as we saw impressively in the closing stages of the quarter-final against Brazil.
Moreover, such a Uruguay-Colombia prediction would not do justice to the offensive strength of the “Cafeteros”. After all, they have scored the most goals in this tournament so far (11).
Harnessing John Cordoba as a one-man attack behind three capable attacking players such as Diaz, Rodriguez and Arias has so far proved to be a brilliant move by the Colombian coach.
Take the game against Costa Rica as an example: while Brazil failed to break down the passionate defensive unit of the “Ticos” (0-0), the “Cafeteros” scored three goals against them (3-0).
Panama is perhaps an even better example of the Colombians’ underestimated attacking power. The “Canaleros” famously beat the USA 2:1 in the group stage, but failed to score against the Colombians in the quarter-finals (0:5).
I have a feeling that Colombia could take the lead before the break on Thursday. The data analysts are backing me up here.
Luis Diaz has scored his last three international goals for Colombia between the 30th and 45th minute.
Also interesting: his team always won by zero on all these occasions
My tip:
Even my favorite bookmakers such as Sunmaker overestimate the possibility of a clean sheet in the Uruguay vs Colombia match, as the defensive absences at URU have not been sufficiently priced into the published odds.
At the same time, the Colombians are underestimated in their ability to score goals. Yet they have scored the most goals in the tournament!
Accordingly, their offensive power should also come into its own against the weakened Uruguayan defense.
As a result, my final bet is a risky but very profitable one: Victory Colombia & Over 2.5 goals
