Wimbledon, semi-finals, Friday, 12.07.2024, 14:00
Musetti in the semi-finals of Wimbledon! That’s a big surprise. He wasn’t considered a grass court player before. But in 2024 he already has twelve victories to his name, significantly more this year than in his young career as a whole.
Will Novak Djokovic have to dress warmly? He knows just how dangerous Musetti is. He has already played some tricky matches against the Italian.
In my Musetti Djokovic betting tip, I am therefore convinced that he will take at least one set against the seven-time winner of the tournament. Betano provides the odds:
Twelve of Musetti’s 21 victories on the green this year. A strong haul for the fact that he lost all four matches on the fast surface in 2021 and 2022. It should not be forgotten that the man from Carrara is only 22 years old.
After this year, everyone will have him on their radar when the short grass season comes around. I have to admit that I didn’t expect him to have such a strong quarter-final as the one he delivered against Zverev’s conqueror Taylor Fritz that day
Musetti was able to read the ATP’s fourth-best server well, grabbing a total of 38 percent of return points, a strong figure! It should also be complicated for Djokovic over a few phases if he has to swing up
The ‘EM betting providers naturally also have all the odds on Wimbledon, but see him clearly ahead in the semi-finals overall. Betano assigns the 37-year-old a 1.13, Musetti has winning odds of 6.20. A very clear difference, which raises the Italian’s set win odds to a lucrative 1.72.
The +1.5 set handicap, with which Musetti would have to win at least two sets, brings a 3.35 on the betting slip. However, the variant with only one set win for Musetti, who is 15 years younger, is enough for me. At Grand Slam level, he has already put up a mighty fight against Djokovic.
They played their first duel at the 2021 French Open, Musetti won the first two sets, Djokovic raised the level and at the same time Musetti struggled with physical problems and had to retire at 0:4 in the last set
2024 The French Open saw another encounter, which again went to the fifth set. Two three-set matches with over 3.5 sets confirm the 1.72 odds for Musetti to win at least one set.
He is 1:5 behind in the direct duel, with his only win against the record Grand Slam champion coming in the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters. Djokovic returned the favor at the same venue and in the same round this year.
While Musetti also had to play more than three sets in his fifth Wimbledon match, Djokovic had no match in the quarter-finals.
After his success against Holger Rune (6-3, 6-4, 6-2), the quarter-final against Alex De Minaur was on the agenda. However, the Australian had to withdraw from the match due to injury
Djokovic will have a certain freshness advantage, but Musetti’s five-set match against Fritz lasted only three and a half hours. After all, the majority of points are played much faster on grass.
Before Fritz, Musetti had to deal with Constant Lestienne, Luciano Darderi, Francisco Comesana and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. On his way to the semi-finals, he always found it more difficult than Djokovic, who dropped two sets but controlled the matches.
Anyone looking for an alternative for the Musetti set win is also well positioned with the odds for at least one tie-break.
Betano’s extensive range of odds offers 1.70 for this and 4.15 for at least two 7-6 outcomes. Musetti has five tiebreaks behind him after five matches. You can also pick up a €20 free bet with no deposit from the official partner of the European Championship 2024
My Musetti Djokovic tip
Musetti is playing an outstanding grass court season, twelve wins from 14 matches, reached the semi-finals of Wimbledon, the final of the Queens Club and the semi-finals of Stuttgart.
Djokovic is warned, having already lost to Musetti once and experienced two mammoth tasks at major level against the Italian, which ended in five sets. I particularly liked Musetti’s return game against two very good servers recently.
Musetti has 27 successful breaks after five rounds and that’s on grass! In addition to good returns, he is extremely nimble on the court and his first serve ratio has also been strong recently.
He will throw everything into his most important match of his career so far! He should at least win a set. Especially as Djokovic has yet to face his first acid test. Rune is currently in a bit of a hole in his form. His previous opponents are ranked outside the top 45.
My Musetti Djokovic tip: Set win Musetti
