Hamburg Open, semi-finals, Saturday, 20.07.2024, 17:00
Germany vs. Spain, the European Championship exit still hurts… In tennis, Alexander Zverev and Pedro Martinez will once again face off in a German-Spanish duel in professional sport on Saturday, but this time the role of favorite is clearly distributed. Zverev is likely to reach the final of the Hamburg Open again after 2023.
Like Jesper de Jong in round one, he sent Zhizhen Zhang home in no time at all. Martinez may have better defensive qualities than his last opponent, but that won’t be enough against the defending champion.
I provide you with the facts, figures and odds in my Zverev Martinez betting tip. The 2:0 for Zverev with no tiebreak should bring me the third goal in the fourth Zverev match. The combination is made possible by the Winamax betting configurator
Hugo Gaston has so far been the only player to really make Zverev sweat. The speedy Frenchman ran down almost every ball that Zverev didn’t play perfectly to the line at full speed. In addition to his speed, Zverev also struggled with his wit.
In the end, however, he mastered the task and continued against Zhang in the quarter-finals where he left off against de Jong in the first round match. Zverev served cleanly, didn’t allow a single break chance, only conceded nine points in total in the service games and rushed into the next round.
Now Martinez awaits, who is listed in the top sports betting apps at odds of around 7.00 as the clear underdog. Zverev’s odds of 1.10 to win are not worth it. The 2:0 victory still brings a 1.35 on the betting slip
The 1.35 is already something for a combination ticket on Saturday, but for me personally it’s still too low to give it to you. If we add under 0.5 tiebreaks at Winamax using the configurator, we get a huge jump in odds to 1.78.
Zverev didn’t have to play a single set in the first three rounds. He owes his only set loss to a wrong refereeing decision, among other things. I expect him to go straight through in the semi-finals. In my opinion, Martinez doesn’t have the right package to defeat Zverev.
Let’s talk about the service numbers first. Zverev converted 29 of his 33 first serves into points against Zhang and, as usual, played them reliably into the court at over 70 percent. It was the second match in Hamburg in which he didn’t even offer a break chance.
He only showed weaknesses against the bustling Gaston, four breaks conceded in seven clay court sets is still outstanding. It’s a completely different story for Martinez, who had to concede twelve service games
He is particularly vulnerable when he has to take the second ball out of his pocket. He only won 37 and 25 percent of the points in the first two rounds and in an overall strong performance against Zverev’s Madrid conqueror Francisco Cerundolo, he was vulnerable on both serves.
The man from Alzira doesn’t get many free points on his serve. In any case, he is more dangerous when he is allowed to return the balls himself. 14 breaks in Hamburg are a house number and he has definitely not had any run-ins with Matteo Arnaldi and Cerundolo.
What is clear, however, is that Zverev is another house number. His knee injury is not slowing him down either, something we know for sure after the run-intensive match against Gaston at the latest.
Getting into Zverev’s service games is a mammoth task for Martinez. In addition to aces, Zverev serves different variations to close out the point after the second shot at the latest
Zverev has finished eight of his last ten matches without losing a service game. Of all the players on the tour, he is also the most reliable at getting his first serve into the court, which is an ordeal for any return player with regular 200 km/h serves.
Zverev and Martinez have not yet met on the tour. While Zverev has delivered consistent performances in 2024 when he has started without injuries, the 49th player in the world has often surprised me in a negative way.
He reached the final of the Challengers in Girona and Bordeaux, as well as the 250 in Estoril, but in many other tournaments he had to retire in the first round. He traveled to Hamburg with six losses from his last seven matches in his luggage. He lacks the basis to be able to get through his service games with confidence.
A good alternative odds to my combination is provided by Intertops, where you can also use Paypal as a deposit method. At 19.5 odds, you can bet on under 19.5 games for a whopping 2.06.
My Zverev Martinez tip
Zverev is clearly the more consistent player in this matchup. The German has hardly been touchable on serve recently. In the past ten matches, he has come through eight times without conceding a break. He also feels extremely comfortable in front of his home crowd in Hamburg.
Last year, he won the title without losing a set or tie-break. I expect another quick march through on Saturday afternoon against the Spaniard, who doesn’t have enough to offer on serve and loses a lot of points, especially on the second serve.
What’s more, Zverev is a very good return player who works his way into the rally from a deep position and takes control. He is particularly good at playing high bouncing balls on clay. He made more than 100 breaks in Paris, among other places!
That’s why my Zverev Martinez tip is: Zverev wins 2:0 & no tiebreak
