Superligaen Matchday 1, Monday, 22.07.2024 at 19:00
After 32 matchdays last season, FC Copenhagen (59) and Lyngby (36) were separated by a total of 23 points in the standings.
Although the 15-time Danish champions only finished third, they still managed to qualify for the international competition.
For Lyngby, the only thing that mattered last season was staying in the league, which they managed to do by four points in the end
Before the start of this season, the home side embarked on a new course and installed a new man on the touchline in Morten Karlsen.
The 45-year-old could certainly have imagined his opening match to be easier than against the fearsome opponents from the Danish capital.
In my Lyngby FC Copenhagen betting tip, I expect a clear win for the visitors and am playing with Happybet odds of 2.35 for “Copenhagen win with handicap -1”
The forecast of the bookmakers?
No one should be surprised that the 15-time Danish champions are the clear favorites. Copenhagen will travel to Lyngby Stadion with odds of up to 1.53 to win and should be able to start the season with a three-pointer.
The hosts are offered betting odds of just under 6.00 in the best sports betting apps. They will be hoping that last season’s third-placed team will stumble on the first matchday, as they have done in previous years.
To explain: Copenhagen have only won two of their last seven matches to start the season (2 draws, 3 defeats).
However, I’m not too worried about this mixed record. In my opinion, the difference in quality between the two teams is too great
Analysis: Lyngby vs FC Copenhagen
Yes, the Danish championship title passed Copenhagen by last year, but the Byens Hold still had the best offense (2.0 goals per game).
The home side’s attack was much weaker, scoring just 1.2 goals per game.
The difference in expected goals was even more drastic. Copenhagen were also unrivaled by any other Danish first division team in this category (62.3 xG), while Lyngby only managed 40.0 expected goals after the entire season
The two teams were not only in completely different galaxies in attack. Defensively, there was also a huge gap between Lyngby and Copenhagen.
Just as in the comparison of expected goals, the Leuven team also had the best value of expected goals conceded (35.6 xGA).
The 47.3 expected goals conceded by the home side were only surpassed by two other league rivals (Vejle Boldklub, HVidovre).
Quota analysis
Lyngby’s preparation has been a nightmare, to say the least. Morten Karlsen and his team were beaten in three out of four games and left the pitch with at least a two-goal difference.
Only the final match against Landskrona (4:0) was in LB’s own interests and they were able to work off the frustration of the previous test matches.
I can well understand the clear distribution of roles by Sunmaker and the other bookmakers, but the handicap for a “Copenhagen win by at least two goals” still offers great value in my eyes.
Visiting coach Jacob Neestrup gave his attackers free rein in the last three test matches and was rewarded with “Over 2.5 goals” from his strikers in each of them.
Lyngby, on the other hand, not only missed out on a win in three of their four test matches, but also failed to score in any of them
An ingenious series
It’s not just the signs from last season that make FC Copenhagen the favorites. The visitors have dominated their duels with Lyngby for several years now.
The past nine league duels have always given the fans of Byens Holden reason to celebrate at least two goals per game.
On average, FC Copenhagen have scored 3.2 goals of their own in these nine encounters and are almost certain to win.
If I remove the magnifying glass on the past nine matches and expand my focus to the last 28 league duels, I find 26 unbeaten matches for FC Copenhagen
A new goalkeeper
Copenhagen rarely neglect their defense. Eleven league games without conceding a goal last season is the second-best figure in the league. Only Brøndby (12) managed this more often.
To further reduce the number of goals conceded, the 15-time Danish champions made a promising transfer in the summer.
New signing Nathan Trott prevented 16.4 expected goals against for Vejle BK in the Superligaen in the previous season.
No other goalkeeper in Denmark’s top flight prevented more goals (35) than Trott in terms of goals conceded (51.4 xGA).
Lyngby have come away empty-handed in four of their last five games, have not scored a goal and have been harmless in attack.
I wouldn’t want to rule out a “Copenhagen win & Both teams score: No” and keep this Betano promo code ready for it:
Going back through the past results between these two sides, I find further evidence to back up my Lyngby FC Copenhagen betting tip.
Simply put, Copenhagen have scored 15 goals in their last five meetings, winning four of those encounters by at least a two-goal margin.
Three of the last four matchdays played between these teams have seen Lyngby fail to score even once
In addition, I trust Jacob Neestrup’s installed offense in the league comparison. Only Nordsjaelland collected more ball contacts in the opponent’s penalty area (1,083) than the Löverne (978) last season.
The number of shots on goal per game by Copenhagen (6.1) was unsurpassed. Lyngby (4.0) did not come close to having such a capacity for shots on goal.
My tip:
Individually, Jacob Neestrup’s team is in a much better position, and not just since this season.
Copenhagen have dominated the duels in this century almost continuously and have hardly let anything burn, especially in the recent past.
Even at the start of the season, I think the visitors are capable of a clear victory, especially with the new goalkeeper between the posts.
My Lyngby FC Copenhagen tip is: Copenhagen FC will win by at least two goals
