Men’s Olympic Football Tournament, Preliminary Round, Matchday 2, 27.07.2024 at 15:00
There are certainly no two opinions: In the context of a test match or, say, a World Cup, Argentina would go into the matchup with Iraq as the heavy favorites.
The central question in my Argentina Iraq betting tip is: Will it be the same at the 2024 Olympics? After all, it’s not the “normal” national teams that will be competing here, but rather the beefed-up U23 teams, whose own lives need to be explored
From an Argentinian perspective, the first thing to note is that Lionel Messi is not in the Olympic squad.
The Inter Miami star is currently suffering from an ankle injury and will also be sorely missed in the MLS. In fact, Messi was not even nominated in advance.
The official reason: Stress management. Coach Javier Mascherano took three other over-23 players to Paris in accordance with the rules
In addition to former star Nicolas Otamendi and keeper Geronimo Rulli, Manchester City attacker Julian Alvarez is certainly the most prominent reinforcement.
To put this in perspective: Alvarez alone accounts for 90 million of the total squad value (250 million euros). If Alvarez scores against Iraq, you could pick up odds of around 2.20.
If we look at the general favorites for the Olympic soccer tournament, it becomes clear: there are basically no surprises
Spain, France and Argentina are the national teams at the top of the list of favorites for the 2024 Olympics, having previously been among the favorites for the title at the European Championships and Copa America.
Spain and Argentina even won the title in the end. I therefore believe that Argentina’s failure in the preliminary round of the Olympics is out of the question.
In a group with Ukraine, Morocco and Iraq, the South Americans are still the top contenders to win the group.
The turbulent 1:2 against Morocco in the first group game should only provide additional motivation to ensure a clear result against Iraq
This is an opportunity to ask about the competitiveness of the Iraqi Olympic team.
The fact is: There is only one team behind Iraq in the title rankings of the major betting providers such as Sunmaker Germany – the Dominican Republic.
Even the teams from Uzbekistan, Guinea and Mali are rated higher, which in turn provides a clear indication of Iraq’s performance against Argentina. The recent 2:1 win against Ukraine doesn’t change that in my eyes.
No joke: the total squad value of the Iraqi Olympic team is just 5.70 million euros.
So it’s no surprise that odds of 1.85 are being called for an Iraqi goal against Argentina. However, a one-nil win for the South Americans is rated as only slightly less likely (2.10).
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In any case, I assume that the Iraqis will end up in one of the last two places in Group B and end up being one of the teams that have to go home after the preliminary round.
I don’t think anyone will fall out of their rocking chair when I reveal that Argentina and Iraq will meet for the first time ever at the Olympic Games.
Moreover, Iraq’s major successes at the Olympics date back several years. In 2004 in Athens, however, they did manage a fourth place.
The road to the 2024 Olympics was not too rocky for the Iraqis in international comparison.
At the U-23 Asian Championship in the spring of that year, they made it through the group stage, narrowly beating Vietnam (1:0) in the quarter-finals before being beaten by Japan (0:2) in the semi-finals.
In the match for third place, they ultimately beat Indonesia 2:1 after extra time.
Argentina, meanwhile, had to win through at the South American qualifying tournament at the start of the year.
After two draws in the final round against Venezuela (2:2) and Paraguay (3:3), they were condemned to victory in the final duel with arch-rivals Brazil. And in the end, the Argentinians did indeed come out on top with a narrow 1:0 victory.
And let’s not forget: The South Americans have already won the Olympic soccer tournament twice this century. They won the gold medal in 2004 and 2008 respectively.
Conclusion: I can’t imagine Argentina getting into trouble against Iraq.
While the South Americans are among the top contenders for soccer gold, Iraq are among the tournament’s biggest outsiders.
I therefore expect Argentina to dominate the game from the outset and force Iraq deep into their own half. It will probably only be a matter of time before the Iraqis run out of steam and make defensive mistakes.
My Argentina Iraq tip is therefore: Argentina win with a handicap of -1.
