Conference League Quali, 2nd round, second leg, Thursday, 01.08.2024 at 21:00
If things go badly for Buducnost in the second leg against ZSKA 1948 Sofia, a bad cycle could develop. The home side have already been eliminated in the second qualifying round of the Conference League two years in a row – and the threat of a third time is looming.
The first leg wasn’t necessarily a good one, but the result (a 1-0 win for Sofia) was excellent. I don’t expect much more for the second leg and my FK Buducnost CSKA 1948 Sofia betting tip.
As a favorite, I have picked the bet on “Under 2.5 goals” at Interwetten and I agree with the odds of 1.70.
The home side from Montenegro still have their league opener ahead of them. By then, however, European competition could no longer be an issue.
As in the first qualifying round, FK Buducnost lost the away game 0:1 and will feel a lot of pressure in the second leg at home.
They pulled off the miracle against FC Malisheva with a 3-0 win with only 1.43 expected goals (via Wyscout). The bookmakers do not want to write off coach Srdjan Nikic’s team because of this. In the Bet365 app, the win odds are currently set at 2.40.
The visitors from Bulgaria were spared the first qualifying round and only started the competition with a 1:0 home win over Buducnost.
However, there have already been two setbacks at national level. Sofia failed to win either on the first matchday against Cherno More (0:0) or the following weekend (2:2 against Spartak Varna).
Visiting coach Valentin Iliev was only introduced as the new coach before this season, but his signature is already recognizable early on
ZSKA gave Buducnost no breathing space in the first leg, allowing no more than 8.56 passes per defensive action (via Wyscout) and holding the Montenegrins to just 2 shots on goal.
Goal threat could become a limiting factor for the home side. Only 0.95 expected goals (via Wyscout) in the first duel were the result of the Bulgarians’ pressing intensity.
Perhaps the use of a sports betting bonus could make the odds of over 2.85 for an away win even more palatable
Last year, Buducnost started in the Champions League qualifiers, where they were eliminated in the intermediate round after losing 5-0 to Breidablik.
A second attempt in the Conference League qualifiers was not much more successful and the home side also failed to score in one of two matches there (against Struga).
ZSKA 1948 Sofia have failed to score in two of their three competitive matches this season.
As guests in Montenegro, the Bulgarians can relinquish the initiative and concentrate on intensive pressing. Perhaps there will be “under 1.5 goals” in the match again. Odds of 3.05 are always attractive
I can’t imagine more than two goals in this second leg. Combined, the first comparison only contained 2.00 expected goals.
Just like for the Blue & Whites, Sofia bowed out after the second qualifying round last year.
Back then, the crux of the matter was the 1-0 defeat at home to FCSB, who came from behind to win the second leg 3-2.
In addition, you shouldn’t underestimate the coach factor. Both coaches were only hired at the start of this season and have yet to establish their desired processes.
It’s not uncommon for this to be reflected first and foremost in the new team’s offensive approach
The first leg really didn’t knock me off my feet and certainly didn’t get me excited. A single goal is also a scenario I can imagine for the second leg.
The home side’s first-round comeback doesn’t sway my predictions either, as a good dose of luck was involved.
Therefore, my FK Buducnost CSKA 1948 Sofia betting tip is: Under 2.5 goals
