Europa League Quali, Playoffs, First leg, Thursday, 22.08.2024 at 20:45
Ajax Amsterdam were long regarded as regulars in the Champions League, but after last year, the Dutch record champions will be competing in the Europa League again this year. To do so, they first need success in the play-offs.
On Thursday, the capital team will travel to Poland to face Jagiellonia Bialystok, last year’s Polish champions, who beat Slask and Legia Warsaw.
I’m assuming that Ajax will lay a good foundation in the first leg, so in my Jagiellonia Bialystok Ajax Amsterdam betting tip at Winamax I’m going for the odds that the hosts don’t win either half
The Ekstraklasa championship title was definitely a surprise for Bialystok. It was the biggest success in the club’s history.
They had already won the cup in 2010 and the Super Cup the following season, and now they also have their first championship trophy in their trophy cabinet
A lot has happened in the Poland squad. There have been 15 departures for the new season. At the same time, some new names have been signed. However, no money was spent in the process.
In addition to two loan signings, Tomas Silva, Maksymilian Stryjek, Lamine Diaby-Fadiga and Miki Villar were acquired on a free transfer. The new season got off to a successful start. Five match days have already been played in Poland.
Jagiellonia only had to play four games, however, and had time off between the Champions League qualifiers against Bodo/Glimt
In the Champions League, however, it was all over in the third qualifying round. It was still enough against Panevezys. The Norwegian champions were a class above, winning 5:1 on aggregate.
I think it’s unlikely that they will at least make it into the Europa League. Ajax Amsterdam was probably the toughest possible draw. After a mixed season, it was only enough for fifth place for the spoiled Dutch club
Thanks to Ajax’s previous successes in Europe, this was still enough to qualify for the Europa League. They started with a 4:1 win against Vojovodina. A nail-biter was on the cards against Panathinaikos Athens.
After losing 1-0 at home, the game went to a spectacular penalty shoot-out, in which Ajax prevailed 13:12. The 40-year-old goalkeeper Remko Pasveer became a hero.
Ajax travel to the away game in Bialystok as favorites. At 1.21, the Dutch are very likely to progress at NEObet, while 3.95 awaits the Polish champions
In the 1X2 market for the first leg, the odds for the AFC are much more attractive. The top betting providers offer odds of around 1.80.
The away win is not absolutely necessary, as everything can be made clear in the second leg at home, but will Ajax go for it? I can’t imagine that.
However, the personnel situation in central defense is a little thin. With Ahmetcan Kaplan and Gaston Avila, two central defenders are out. What’s more, the 1995 Champions League winners suffered a 2-1 defeat at Breda at the weekend.
However, it should be at least a draw for the visitors. There are also likely to be a few goals again. Interwetten has a 1.50 in its repertoire for “Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals”
I think the bet that Bialystok won’t win a half is even better. The fact that the club does not have the necessary playing strength and experience to stand up to the caliber of Ajax was already evident in the last Champions League qualifying round.
In addition, the team is somewhat out of step, after the heavy defeat against Bodo/Glimt (1:4 in the second leg) Jagiellonia also suffered a 1:4 defeat at home against Cracovia in the following league game
However, it is already the most successful season of all time for the premier champions in the European Cup. Jagiellonia have failed to qualify every time so far. This season, they are already guaranteed a place in the Conference League group stage.
The successes can also be attributed to the change of coach in April 2023, when Adrian Siemienciec took over the squad. Francesco Farioli is still very new at Ajax and is expected to give AFC more stability.
Amsterdam have not conceded many goals so far. If the test matches are included, Ajax have only conceded more than one goal once
Conclusion: Ajax came through last round in a penalty shoot-out against Panathinaikos. I expect more aplomb against the surprise champions of Poland, who have a much weaker soccer team.
Under new head coach Farioli, Ajax are no longer scoring like an assembly line, but they are much more compact in defense.
Bialystok, on the other hand, have lost their way since the Champions League qualifying second leg against Bodo/Glimt in the third round and have conceded four goals twice.
My tip is therefore: Bialystok won’t win a half
