Europa League Quali, play-offs, second leg, Thursday, 29.08.2024 at 21:00
If one side wins the first leg 3:0, then this comfortable starting position will definitely have an influence on the possible course of the subsequent second leg.
At least that’s what I’m assuming in my TSC Maccabi Tel Aviv betting tip. The Serbs should be able to get something going first, provided they concentrate on playing soccer this time …
Sometimes the opponent knocks you out of a competition, sometimes it’s your own players who seal an early exit.
In TSC’s first leg in the Holy Land a week ago, it was almost certainly a mixture of both factors, although I assume it was 70% self-inflicted.
Because lapses like those by Djordjevic and Banjac, who were both sent off with straight red before the break, can quickly become your undoing in the Europa League play-offs.
And so the first leg quickly developed into a one-sided affair, almost like a test match, which Maccabi Tel-Aviv dominated with a goal-to-shot ratio of 18:2 and a deserved 3:0 victory.
But would the Israelis have won without the sending-offs? That remains an open question that can only be answered speculatively.
I would tend to say yes. Especially as TSC have lost almost every one of their last nine European Cup games and regularly conceded a large number of goals (1 draw, 8 defeats).
I’m not wasting a single thought on a miraculous progression of the Serbs. TSC have never successfully survived a knockout round consisting of a first and second leg. Then to turn around a 0:3 from the first leg? That is simply unrealistic!
Nevertheless, the Serbs will do everything in their power to put in a strong performance at home, especially as they are already guaranteed a place in the Conference League.
And it should be clear to you after the last Europa League season in 2023/24: TSC is quite capable of scoring goals even against top teams on home soil.
Please note: In the 2023/24 season, Bačka Topola suffered clear defeats in the Europa League group stage when they played away against Olympiakos (2:5) and Freiburg (0:5).
On home soil, however, the team was much stronger and sold itself much better in the 2:2 draw against Olympiakos and the 1:3 draw against Freiburg.
They scored at least one goal in both games, which shows that the team can be dangerous at home.
As the Israelis travel to Serbia with a comfortable lead, I expect the visitors to play a rather passive game anyway.
That’s why I’m particularly interested in the Betano sports bet at odds of around 2.47, according to which the home side will score the first goal of the game
Another promising tip is the bet “TSC to score over 1.5 goals”, which is offered on the betting markets at odds of around 2.82 across all providers.
This scenario is particularly interesting because Backa Topola have a proven track record of performing strongly on home soil.
While the Serbian league may not be one of the strongest in the world, TSC have only lost to Red Star and OFK Belgrade at their stadium so far in the 2024 calendar year.
This clearly speaks for a certain home strength and automatically makes my betting suggestions just as interesting as the Oddset Freebet, for example.
However, I wouldn’t necessarily want to go further than a possible 1:0 lead and two goals for the Serbs.
However, the home win odds of 3.70 are not a bad offer. After all, Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defense is anything but impregnable.
Should the hosts also manage to remain disciplined and not be weakened by sending-offs again, a conciliatory 2:1 victory could well be within their grasp.
My respect for Maccabi Tel Aviv’s playing ability is limited anyway.
After all, the Israelis already failed to beat Steaua Bucharest in the Champions League qualifiers and then faced a rather grateful opponent in FK Panevezys in the 3rd round of the Europa League qualifiers.
As I said, the visitors from the Holy Land are anything but fearsome, but will almost certainly make it through to the EL group stage
Conclusion: In the second leg between Bačka Topola and Maccabi Tel Aviv, the Serbs will want to put the pressure on from the start despite the absence of two key players.
It is even possible that the first half of the game will belong to the home side. An early 1-0 is certainly within the realms of possibility, and the odds offered on the betting markets are very attractive.
However, I don’t believe in a soccer miracle …
My tip: The TSC scores the 1:0
