Bundesliga matchday 3, Friday, 13.09.2024 at 20:30
Sounds strange, but it’s true: Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim will face off on matchday 3 of the Bundesliga. Friday the 13th with a difference.
In fact, Heidenheim have made a dream start with two wins and 6:0 goals and are cheekily greeting from the top of the table.
Accordingly, my Dortmund Heidenheim betting tip will focus not least on the question of whether Heidenheim’s high-flying run is merely a temporary anomaly in the early stages of the season or whether Frank Schmidt’s team will also be able to cause a sensation at Signal Iduna Park.
In addition to FCH, Dortmund Borussia will naturally also come into focus. I can openly admit that I’m one of those who are extremely critical of the Black & Yellows’ prospects for the season.
However, my main tip “Double chance X2 & Under 4.5 goals” and all alternative tips are of course not just gut decisions that I hastily enter into one of the numerous betting provider apps.
In my Dortmund Heidenheim prediction, I will show you numerous statistics that at least cast doubt on BVB simply knocking 1. FC Heidenheim out of the stadium in passing.
It should be noted at this point that Dortmund’s offense has not exactly covered itself in glory so far this season.
Accordingly, in the Dortmund Heidenheim odds, I’m focusing on bets that suggest a comparatively low-scoring encounter. First of all, however, let’s take a look at the classic 1×2 odds:
The betting providers’ forecast?
BVB’s role as favorites leaves no doubt, and not only the betting providers without tax.
In fact, the odds for a Borussia home win are widely spread below 1.40. A Heidenheim win is at 8.00, the draw at a well above average 5.20.
In principle, of course, there is nothing wrong with the fact that Heidenheim are seen as the underdogs. Ultimately, however, the starting position is nowhere near as clear-cut for me as the odds indicate in advance
KI prediction Dortmund vs Heidenheim: This is what ChatGPT predicts
Some of you will have already noticed: Since Euro 2024, ChatGPT has also been getting in touch with us with tips and predictions.
The Dortmund Heidenheim AI prediction has the classic “Over 2.5 goals” in the low-risk betting tip.
Unfortunately, I can’t fully agree here, considering that Borussia have only scored two goals so far this season and have been uninspired offensively so far
ChatGPT classifies the Asian handicap bet “Dortmund win -1” as a medium-risk bet.
Since I generally assume that Borussia will not win this game, I am not on the side of the AI here either.
However, I go with the high-risk tip. Here ChatGPT suggests the “Double chance X2”, which I’ll sign even without an additional goal bet
Analysis: Dortmund vs Heidenheim
I’m undecided: Has Borussia Dortmund made a satisfactory start to the season or not?
On the one hand, BVB are in fourth place with four points and – like Heidenheim – have yet to concede a goal.
On the other hand, their performances against Frankfurt and Bremen were only moderately convincing. In this form, I don’t see Dortmund as one of the closest contenders for the championship.
For comparison: before matchday 3, only Bochum (17th) and St. Pauli (18th) had scored fewer goals than Nuri Sahin’s team.
Fittingly: If Dortmund stay under 1.5 goals against Heidenheim, you can dust off fantastic odds of around 2.90.
In Heidenheim, meanwhile, there is pure satisfaction. For the first time ever in the club’s history, FCH will be represented on the international stage this season and will be looking to cut a fine figure in the Conference League.
They have also got off to a better start in the Bundesliga than any other team.
Particularly noteworthy: Despite their defensive-oriented style of play, Heidenheim have the best attack of the first two matchdays with six goals scored.
A piquant fact: If the league leaders score even one goal against Dortmund, odds of 1.65 are already due.
Analysis of odds
You should look at the odds for the respective goal bets in a very differentiated way. After all, the major bookmakers have priced in Borussia’s offensive potential extremely optimistically in my view.
For example, the odds for a match with over 3.5 goals are well below average at 2.30.
The counter bet “Under 3.5 goals” is easily playable as a single bet at odds of 1.60 – an excellent betting alternative in my view.
It should not be forgotten that Dortmund and Heidenheim, the teams that have gone the first two matchdays without conceding a goal, will meet on Friday evening. Accordingly, a high-scoring clash does not fit into the statistics.
However, the bet “Heidenheim win with handicap +2” at odds of 1.85 is very interesting for me. Here, too, it plays into the fact that the bookmakers see Dortmund as far too much of a favorite in my opinion
Dortmund vs Heidenheim odds: A draw at half-time with an announcement?
Of course, I won’t sweep one statistic under the carpet that speaks against a successful performance by 1. FC Heidenheim in Dortmund.
And that is the away record of the previous season. In fact, Heidenheim only won three Bundesliga away matches in 2023/24. With a goal difference of 20:29, they were anything but an away power.
The truth is, however, that Dortmund were a strong home team, but not an outstanding one. With 10 wins in 17 home matches, they “only” ended up in fifth place in the home table.
It is fitting that the 2:0 win against Frankfurt in the first home game of the new season was by no means a commanding performance. The score was 0-0 at the break, with both goals coming late on. A draw at half-time for the game against Heidenheim at odds of around 2.60 can be considered accordingly
BVB still winless against Heidenheim!
The head-to-head statistics provide a further indication that Borussia Dortmund will not have a walk in the park against Heidenheim.
The two teams met for the first time ever last season and have therefore only played two matches. However, BVB have not won either of them.
In Heidenheim, Borussia lacked any determination and had to settle for a 0-0 draw in the end
And in front of a home crowd, the favorites also failed to pick up three points.
In fact, the Ruhrpott club were already leading 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park, but conceded two more goals and ended up with just one point.
For the superstitious: That 2:2 came on matchday 3 of the previous season
A little over a year ago, BVB also had four points before the clash with Heidenheim and had only scored two goals in the first two matchdays.
Back then, however, Borussia were up against an opponent that was nowhere near as strong. FCH currently have 13 wins in a row (including pre-season).
And not to forget: The bet “Double chance Heidenheim & Under 4.5 goals” would have led to success in each of the previous duels.
My Dortmund Heidenheim bet:
Yes, Borussia Dortmund have the better quality squad compared to Heidenheim and are in a different league on paper.
However, I’m not convinced that this difference will be reflected on the pitch on Friday evening. Heidenheim are well-rehearsed, in good form and brimming with confidence.
It would therefore come as no surprise to me if the underdogs don’t end up losing in a rather low-scoring match.
Accordingly, my Dortmund Heidenheim betting tip is: “Double chance X2 & Under 4.5 goals”
