Premier League, Saturday, 14.09.2024 at 13:30
During the summer break, United acquired two really good defenders from Bayern for what felt like half the price. These purchases have not yet paid off, but the Red Devils should not have to remain in 14th place for much longer.
According to my Southampton Manchester United betting tip, three points should be realistic against the newly promoted side. I also trust that the spectators will be treated to plenty of goalmouth action – on both sides of the pitch
While I hold the Oddset app in one hand, I’ll take you by the hand with the other and take you through my Southampton Manchester United betting tip and all the reasons why I’m leaning towards the visitors here.
The Saints, for example, have had a bumpy start to the season and have lost all three of their Premier League games so far.
The team is on the verge of a negative record: if they lose their next game, it would be the third time that Southampton have lost their first four games of a Premier League season – this has only happened in the 1998/99 and 2012/13 seasons
Manchester United also have a remarkable record against Southampton. The Red Devils are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games against the Saints (7 wins, 5 draws).
Southampton’s last win against United on home soil was therefore a long time ago, in August 2003.
This statistic should give Erik ten Hag’s team a lot of confidence, even if they have to play away from home, where they recently suffered a surprising 2-1 defeat to Brighton in the Premier League.
I’m far from finished with good reasons for my betting decision! Man United have an almost flawless record against promoted teams.
It’s crazy: Of the last 30 games against newly promoted Premier League teams, the Red Devils have only lost one (22 wins, 7 draws).
The club has been particularly dominant in recent years, winning 15 of their last 17 games against PL newcomers. The last time United lost to a promoted team was against Watford in November 2021
And even if the Saints were to take the lead in any way on Saturday, that is no reason for Man United to panic. After all, the Red Devils have an impressive ability to turn around trails against these opponents by 180 degrees.
In a total of 10 Premier League games against Southampton, Man United have already turned a deficit into a win – only Liverpool against Newcastle have more Premier League comeback victories in the history of the competition
So everything points to United having the better starting position to win this clash. And from a purely statistical point of view, Man United remain the clear favorites in this duel.
But what about suitable soccer bets for this match that are also worth tapping into a reliable sports betting app?
This is precisely where some interesting data-related anomalies come into play. It is striking that both teams have already made numerous mistakes this season that have led to goals being conceded.
Southampton have four such colossal mistakes to their name, Man United three – which makes a “both teams to score” bet almost a must for me (odds: 1.50).
Both defenses should prove to be prone to mistakes after the international break, which could make for an exciting game
Another interesting aspect is United’s offensive underperformance. Despite an Expected Goals Value of 5.2 goals, the Red Devils have only scored two goals so far – that’s around three goals less than expected.
In view of the existing offensive potential, a bet on “Man United over 1.5 goals” could therefore prove profitable (odds: 1.65). The team certainly has the potential to exploit its chances in the future and score significantly more goals.
It is also worth considering whether the match will be high-scoring. As both teams are shaky defensively and Manchester United are always capable of scoring goals, it might be advisable to consider an over-3.5-goal bet
The current Southampton FC goalkeeper has a horrendous personal record against Manchester United.
Since his first Premier League game against the Red Devils in November 2019, when he was still playing for Bournemouth, he has not kept a clean sheet against United in the following eight games.
He has also conceded a whopping 19 goals in those games – the highest number of goals he has conceded against any opponent in the Premier League, along with the 19 goals he conceded against Liverpool.
Conclusion: My Southampton Manchester United prediction is clearly in favor of the Red Devils. Despite defensive weaknesses, United should dominate against the promoted side and finally be more efficient with their chances.
The international break gave the visitors some much-needed time to take a deep breath and work on their mistakes.
However, since the Saints can also remain dangerous, especially due to the vulnerability of United’s defense, I’m marking a win for the visiting team on my betting slip, in which both teams score.
My tip: Tip 2 & both score
