Champions League, Wednesday, 18.09.2024 at 21:00
Everything is new! The Champions League will have a new look in the 2024/25 season. The usual preliminary round will be replaced by a combined, large group from which the top eight teams will progress directly to the knockout round.
However, one thing has not changed: Only those who do their homework have a chance in the top flight.
Accordingly, my Bruges Dortmund betting tip focuses on the question of whether BVB will be dominant against the supposed underdogs and whether they can build on their stable CL performances from the previous season.
One thing is clear: After reaching the final last season, Borussia want to be at the top of the table again this Champions League season and can hardly afford any slip-ups against teams like Bruges.
It should not be forgotten, however, that the Bundesliga club will still face Real Madrid and FC Barcelona in the preliminary round and will therefore be reliant on the three Brugge points in the battle for the top eight places
And this approach leads me in my Bruges Dortmund prediction directly to my main tip “Win Dortmund & Both teams score” (3.60 @Betano).
I assume that the Ruhrpott club will take the performance from the Bundesliga match against Heidenheim (4:2) as an example and choose a more offensive approach.
Accordingly, the majority of my betting alternatives focus on a comparatively high-scoring encounter
The bookmaker forecast
A look at the classic 1×2 odds quickly makes it clear: Borussia Dortmund are favored to win against FC Brugge.
However, bookmakers such as Oddset Germany have left a back door open. The odds for an away win have climbed above the 2.00 mark.
A home win, on the other hand, is easily playable as a risk tip with odds of 3.50. However, the low odds for a draw are particularly interesting.
The estimated 3.65 clearly indicates that the bookmakers believe the Belgians can at least score a point.
KI prediction Bruges vs Dortmund: This is what ChatGPT is betting on.
This is immediately followed by our Bruges Dortmund AI prediction. Because ChatGPT actually has the bet “Bruges win & both teams score” in its sights as a risk tip.
Since I assume that BVB will win, I can of course do little with this approach.
All in all, the AI and I are once again not on the same wavelength
Because I also can’t subscribe to the “under 2.5 goals” at medium risk. I’m not expecting a tactical game, but an exchange of blows with an open goal.
The selected low-risk bet is entirely justifiable. Here ChatGPT presents the bet “Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals”. My protest is limited
Analysis: Bruges vs Dortmund
The new season has got off to a remarkable start for Bruges.
After three matchdays in the Belgian Jupiler Pro League, they were one of the biggest disappointments with just one point to their name, but they are currently back on track.
Four wins and nine goals later, the defending champions are back at the top of the table and can therefore go into their clash with Borussia with confidence.
If the Belgians score at least two goals against BVB, you can pick up great odds of around 2.60.
However, there can be no talk of a crisis of form at BVB either. After two wins and a draw in the Bundesliga, Black & Yellows are on target and were particularly impressive offensively in their recent 4:2 win over Heidenheim.
Quite a few things were reminiscent of the old Klopp-BVB, which should be more than just a memory under former Klopp player and new coach Nuri Sahin.
It would therefore come as no surprise if Borussia were to get off to a flying start in Bruges and score the first goal of the game.
The odds for this are 1.75 and, in my opinion, are an excellent betting alternative
Analysis of odds
If you take a closer look at the odds for the respective goal bets, you will notice that the betting providers without tax – just like me – do not assume a low-scoring match.
The odds for a match with less than 2.5 goals are around 2.10. The counter bet “Over 2.5 goals” is listed at 1.75, which is not far below average, but noticeably lower.
The odds of around 1.60 for the classic “Both teams to score” are similar. Overall, this bet is also a perfect alternative as a single bet.
The Dortmund lead at half-time is also worth a look in my opinion. The odds here are around 2.60 and offer excellent value
Brügge is not invincible at home
Of course, the respective home and away statistics are worth mentioning. And there is a little surprise here.
Although FC Brugge won the Belgian championship last season, they had noticeable problems at home. Before the title play-offs, “only” 8 of 15 home games were won.
At the same time, however, they were the measure of all things offensively, scoring 35 goals. Dortmund, meanwhile, were the third-best away team in the Bundesliga in 2023-24 and only suffered three defeats at their opponents’ grounds.
Only the unbeaten Werkself from Leverkusen had fewer defeats to their name
Dortmund are not the Belgians’ favorite opponents
The statistics of the direct comparison must be viewed in a very differentiated way.
FC Brugge and Borussia Dortmund have already met eight times. In the past five years, however, they have only met twice in the 2020/21 season.
In the preliminary round of the premier class, BVB won both matches by a clear 3-0 margin
A remarkable fact: Brugge have not scored a single goal against Borussia in their four Champions League matches to date. So it’s about time they did so in front of a home crowd on Wednesday.
The fact that Brugge won’t simply surrender to the Bundesliga club is of course also due to the Belgians’ European Cup experience.
Bruges have regularly featured in the top flight since 2016. In 2022/23, they reached the round of 16 for the first time. However, it was quite clearly the end of the line against Benfica Lisbon (0:2, 1:5).
Nothing to sneeze at: Last season, they made it to the semi-finals of the Conference League and only narrowly failed to beat AC Florence (2:3, 1:1).
All in all, a 2:1 win for Dortmund on Wednesday seems more realistic than a clear 3:0.
No coincidence: The bookmakers have also set their sights on a 2:1 win for BVB and have set the result bet at a comparatively low 9.00.
My Bruges Dortmund tip:
Yes, I expect resistance from FC Brugge. In terms of play, however, BVB should be superior to the Belgians and take control as the game progresses.
As Borussia are still searching for the right balance between offense and defense, I don’t believe that the finalists of the previous season will be able to keep Bruges completely unscathed.
A goal from the underdog should therefore be possible. Accordingly, my Bruges Dortmund betting tip is: BVB wins and both teams score
