Champions League, Thursday, 19.09.2024 at 18:45
Favorites and underdogs in the various groups of the top flight? That was once upon a time! A lot is new in our Champions League tips, which will of course also affect my Red Star Belgrade Benfica Lisbon betting tip. My advice for this match: Don’t underestimate the underdog and bet on a BTS.
The fact that Benfica Lisbon is the individually much stronger team is of course not up for discussion in my analysis.
However, the Eagles have already made one or two slip-ups in the still young season, and no opponent should be underestimated in Europe
When the trip to Belgrade is on the cards, Benfica can at least be sure that our bookmakers will put the favorites in their luggage. The average Red Star Benfica Lisbon odds are around 3.90 to 1.80.
Incidentally, the two clubs have already faced each other once before, but that was 40 years ago. To be precise: it was exactly 40 years ago to the day! It may no longer be relevant in sporting terms, but such coincidences are of course interesting.
In my Red Star Belgrade Benfica Lisbon prediction, I will now examine whether the result from back then, a 3:2 for the underdogs, is realistic for Thursday. I think at least the goals on both sides are more than realistic!
The bookmaker prediction
Our bookmakers are not really convinced of the option that Red Star Belgrade could win on Thursday. Nevertheless, average odds of 3.90 also suggest that a three-pointer would not be a major sensation.
Benfica Lisbon are definitely the favorites. If you want to place a pure win bet, you’ll find profitable odds, as our sports betting apps offer values of 1.80 for the first three points.
A draw would certainly be more pleasing for Belgrade than for the visitors from Lisbon. If both teams actually get a point each and you bet on a draw, the odds of 3.80 will reward you.
KI prediction Red Star Belgrade vs Benfica Lisbon: ChatGPT
Admittedly, Red Star Belgrade are not among the best in the premier class. Nevertheless, I have of course also asked the AI about this match and analyzed three bets with different risk levels via ChatGPT.
You are taking a high risk if you select the Tip 1 suggestion. I would rather advise against this. Belgrade may be strong at home, but Benfica is stronger in all respects. If you want to strengthen the underdog, I would rather go for the double chance 1X at odds of 2.00.
The AI believes that Benfica Lisbon can score in both halves. Since the Portuguese have only managed that once in their own league, I’m exercising caution here. Conclusion: I rate the risk as a little too high!
According to ChatGPT, you are probably right with the bet over 2.5 goals and I can well imagine that this tip will be correct. I’m betting on goals from both teams, but I also believe that individual quality will prevail.
Analysis: Red Star Belgrade vs Benfica Lisbon
Two quarter-finals, then only the group stage again? Benfica Lisbon have experienced a lot in the Champions League in recent years, year after year the Eagles have been among the greats.
Now the format has changed completely, will Benfica be able to cope with it and end up among the top eight teams? There is every reason to doubt it, as the knockout round will be reached via the play-offs if necessary.
Benfica did not have to qualify for the top flight, so let’s take a look at what has already happened this season. Five rounds are over, and not everything worked out!
With a club like Benfica, this is immediately noticeable, as winning streaks are the order of the day in the Primeira Division. They got off to a bad start with a 2-0 loss to Famalicao and then suffered their second slip-up in a 1-1 draw against Moreirense
Quotenanalyse
I can well imagine that Benfica Lisbon will find it harder than expected to get into the game and that the home side will try to take advantage of the atmosphere. That’s why I’m backing the double chance 1X at half-time and using the odds of 2.60.
At the same time, I also think it’s likely that more will happen in front of the two goals in the second half. The assumption that there will be more goals scored after the change of ends than before is given odds of 1.90 at Betano.
If you want to bet on the result, I think you are well served with the 1:2. Odds of 8.25 are due for this, the value would be virtually identical for a 1-0 win for the favorites.
Red Star Belgrade vs. Benfica Lisbon: Benfica weak away from home?
3:0, 1:0 and 4:1, the other three matches were won. However, these three matches took place at home, while the two that did not end in victory were played away from home.
Of course, it is still too early to accuse Benfica of being weak away from home. But: last season, there were four defeats in the league – all away from home! So it is definitely not an advantage that the Champions League now starts away from home.
Incidentally, there have hardly been any matches against clubs from Serbia to date, with the only one taking place in 1984. The opponent: appropriately enough, Red Star, with both winning their respective home games 3:2 and 2:0.
Outsider Red Star
Logically, these two results will certainly no longer have any sporting relevance, but it could be that the Serbs are taking this as an opportunity to give themselves an extra boost.
This is only the Red Star’s fourth appearance in the group stage; last year, Manchester City, Young Boys Bern and RB Leipzig were too strong and prevented them from reaching the knockout round for the first time ever.
In the play-offs, Belgrade came out on top against Bodö/Glimt, turning the game around with a 2-0 win at home after a 2-1 draw away from home. Bruno Duarte was one of the scorers and has been the most dangerous man in the squad so far.
With six goals in nine competitive games, the new signing from Farense seems to be feeling right at home in his new team. In the league, Red Star are performing exactly as you would expect them to: flawlessly!
Six wins and one draw, six times more than 1.5 goals, that’s strong. But: Benfica Lisbon is of course not the same as the national competition, without wanting to offend Pazar, Jedinstvo or Mladost.
Nevertheless, I’ll take a quick look at the betting odds suggesting that Belgrade will score more than 1.5 goals on Thursday. The value jumps up to 2.85 at Bet-at-Home, but I would have expected that to be even higher! On top of that, there is also the Bet-at-Home voucher to redeem.
My Red Star Belgrade Benfica Lisbon bet:
That Benfica Lisbon is individually much stronger than Red Star Belgrade? Of course, this thesis would not have required a detailed analysis. But the Serbs are known for leaving their hearts on the pitch, especially at home.
With passion and vociferous support from the stands, they should succeed in giving the favorites a leg up. And why not, as the visitors have already suffered two slip-ups away from home in their league.
All in all, this leads me to lean too far out of the window and see a clear victory for the favorites. Of course, I’m not ruling out Benfica winning, but I would go for the following Red Star Belgrade Benfica Lisbon tip:
Both teams score a goal!
