Bundesliga 5th matchday, Saturday, 09/28/2024 at 3:30 pm
A different wind is blowing at FC St. Pauli! The neighborhood kickers are back in our 1st Bundesliga tips, but they still don’t feel completely comfortable here.
One point, one goal, they need more than that. Will I be able to raise the hopes of the fans in my Freiburg St. Pauli tip?
It’s difficult, because the Badeners have got off to a really good start, have already won three times and, as my analysis will show, feel particularly at home against promoted teams.
That’s one of the reasons why I think we’ll see a fourth win this weekend.
What doesn’t work for Hamburg works perfectly for Freiburg. I wonder if this is also reflected in the Freiburg St. Pauli odds that I found at our best online betting providers?
Absolutely, because the home side are leading with an average of 1.60 to 5.20. But how could it be otherwise when a promoted team is traveling with only one point in its luggage and doesn’t really know how to free itself from its current situation?
So when the whistle blows on Saturday, there will be a whiff of David versus Goliath in the Black Forest. My Freiburg St. Pauli prediction shows why you should go for the home win tip here.
The betting providers’ prediction?
SC Freiburg is of course favored against St. Pauli after their top start, as can be seen from a glance at the table alone. If you want to bet on a home win, odds between 1.60 and 1.65 are due.
For the guests from the Hanseatic city, the odds naturally climb significantly higher, which is not surprising given that they only need to get a single point. I can see an average of 5.20 for the triple.
St. Pauli would probably be much happier with a draw than Freiburg. Since there was a draw after 90 minutes in the last direct duel, in the cup at the beginning of 2022, you should definitely keep an eye on the odds of 4.00.
AI prediction Freiburg v St. Pauli: This is what ChatGPT tips
The right assessment of a promoted team? I’ll leave that to the AI for a moment! I asked ChatGPT about the match in question and it gave me three very interesting betting options with different levels of risk.
You take a high risk if you say: At half-time it is a draw, but SC Freiburg celebrates in the end. A perfectly realistic tip! Freiburg is strong against promoted teams, but has never led before half-time.
The medium-risk bet also includes, among other things, a Freiburg win, supplemented by a “both teams scoring”. Admittedly, Freiburg has only conceded once, but at the same time, St. Pauli has the weakest attack in the league. Perhaps the 1 without conceding a goal tip would be better placed here!
The lowest AI risk is if you say: Freiburg score in the first half. St. Pauli actually only conceded one goal before half-time, and SCF only scored one goal in that period. In my opinion, it might also be worth betting that no goals will be scored in the first 45 minutes.
Analysis: Freiburg vs St. Pauli
The first season without Christian Streich? It could be a really good one! A lot is new for SC Freiburg, but with Julian Schuster they have a new coach who, how do you say it? Has absolute experience in the business!
He is obviously exactly the right man for the club, because with three wins from the first four rounds, the start has been more than successful. The only defeat was the 2-0 loss in Munich, but they beat last season’s runners-up Stuttgart 3-1.
2:1 against Bochum, 3:0 against Heidenheim, SCF passed all of the supposed must-win games with flying colors. If I want to find points of criticism, I’ll start with the fact that Freiburg only took the lead once.
Stuttgart, Bayern, Bochum, three times in the young season it was already 0-1. In addition, no goal has been scored before half-time in three games, only in the 1-1 against VfB did that work.
Odds analysis
I have already mentioned it briefly with regard to the AI forecasts: Since the Hamburg defense is quite stable in the first half and Freiburg only gets going in the second 45 minutes, the 0-0 bet in the first half is recommended, which brings it to odds of 3.00 in the Betano app.
At the same time, this automatically leads me to the bet “More goals in the second half”. How many is scored is irrelevant here; if the first tip is correct, one is enough. The odds for this bet are 1.95.
And a result bet could also be an option for Saturday. I expect the hosts to win, but without a big spectacle. Therefore, I think a 2-0 is realistic, which would lead us to odds of 8.00.
Freiburg vs. St. Pauli: Home advantage as the deciding factor?
As long as they kick into turbo in the second half, nobody in Freiburg should be bothered by it. On the contrary, anyone who comes from behind twice to win deserves extra praise.
St. Pauli, Augsburg, Mainz, Gladbach, Wolfsburg and Kiel? The next opponents to travel to Freiburg are not among the teams at the top of the table. Could the Badeners even manage to put together a strong series?
There have only been five home wins in total in 2023/24, and on Saturday they could reach three. Eight years ago, the team last started with four home wins in a row.
When will St. Pauli pull themselves together?
Home games against promoted teams? The sports club should be particularly pleased about that. They haven’t lost in any of the last nine, which is an impressive run. Is there anything at all that could scare the fans ahead of the upcoming clash against Pauli?
Theoretically, the direct comparison, because they have only won one of the last five matches. But: the last time they met in the first division was in 2011, so the history here is not really meaningful.
St. Pauli will have big plans for the trip to Freiburg, but will that be enough? Four fights, four narrow losses – the start to the season has not been particularly successful.
And that despite the fact that the first opponents, Heidenheim, Union Berlin and Augsburg, were definitely among the toughest. Who did they get their first point against? Against RB Leipzig, a Champions League participant!
0:2, 0:1, 1:3 and 0:0, there was precious little going forward. There have already been three draws at half-time, with the defense only breaking down in Augsburg at the end. At least the Kiezkicker could be proud of taking a point off RB at the end.
They have not won in 16 Bundesliga games, so the fans would definitely like to see them get back to winning ways. The Pauli team only had eleven shots on goal, which is also the lowest in the league (together with Bremen).
My Freiburg St. Pauli Tip:
Autumn depression? Not in Freiburg! The sports club is off to a flying start, apart from the defeat against FC Bayern, everything has been won and hit hard. It doesn’t matter that the second half is the one that the team is much more comfortable with.
Of course, the situation is quite different for the guests from the Hanseatic city. They are cautiously feeling their way in this new league, improving defensively, but at the expense of their offensive efforts. One goal this season, much less is not possible.
All in all, I don’t think St. Pauli is strong enough to hurt SC Freiburg, because the team from Baden particularly likes to play promoted teams at home. That’s why I’ve decided to place a single bet this time and say:
Freiburg wins against St. Pauli!
