Champions League, Wednesday, 02.10.2024 at 9:00 p.m.
After the derby is before the Champions League! Atletico Madrid travel to the capital of Portugal, some 500 kilometers as the crow flies, for the 1:1 in the Derby Madrileno against Benfica Lisbon.
If the Portuguese team under Bruno Lage has won all four of its previous competitive games, Diego Simeone’s team will be out to end that streak. Will they get their 5th win in a row against the Rojiblancos?
In my opinion, we will see two teams on Wednesday evening that will be evenly matched. Admittedly, I can’t really say what the outcome of this game will be!
Both teams won their opening games two weeks ago, 2-1, with Atletico and Benfica currently neighbors in the table. While the Portuguese triumphed in Belgrade, the Colchoneros turned around a deficit at home against Leipzig.
Atletico won the last and only previous meeting at the Estadio da Luz 2-1 in 2015. I can reveal that the history of this rivalry does not necessarily play a role in my analysis.
But: As in the two direct comparisons from 9 years ago, I expect goals on both sides again this time. Betting provider Merkur Bets, which also offers sports betting apps, is offering odds of almost 1.70 for my bet.
The bookmaker’s forecast
Despite playing at home and their form on the rise, the bookmakers see the Eagles as slight underdogs in this encounter. Bookmaker Betano, which also has an app, offers the best odds for the Aguilars to win at 3.05.
If you expect the Scarlets to get at least a point, the double chance 1X is worth considering. In this case, the bookies promise a payout of 1.57 times the stake if this bet turns out well.
On the other hand, the odds of 2.40 for an away win are tempting. In the event of a draw, the bookies are offering multipliers of up to 3.40.
KI prediction Benfica vs Atletico Madrid: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Before I give my own assessment of this game, I’d like to compare my opinion with that of ChatGPT. As it turned out, the artificial intelligence and yours truly are once again far from coming to a common denominator.
With a whopping odds of 6.60, ChatGPT wants to go all out this time and is predicting the halftime and final scores. If the AI is right with its prediction, then the guests can still celebrate victory after a draw at half-time.
Following on from the first tip, but with a little less risk, ChatGPT recommends a bet on the Spanish team. However, after the high workload in the last few weeks and the nerve-wracking derby on Sunday, I would refrain from this option.
Finally, the artificial intelligence suggests a bet with supposedly low risk. But here, too, I have to disagree with ChatGPT, especially in view of what I consider to be the unattractive odds of just 1.93 for the “under 2.5 goals” bet.
Analysis: Benfica Lisbon vs Atletico Madrid
The Roger Schmidt chapter came to an end at the end of August after just over two years. Second place in the previous season and a weak start to the new season were reason enough for the club to end their collaboration with the German.
His successor Bruno Lage, who was born not far from the Portuguese capital, is supposed to get “Os Encarnados” back on track. So far, the 48-year-old, who previously coached Benfica from 2019 to 2020 and helped the record champions win the league title, seems to be coping well with this task.
As in his first term, the 38-time Portuguese champions are impressing with good results. Benfica celebrated a 4-1 home win in their very first game after his return. On Saturday, they recorded the next comfortable win against Gil Vicente at home in the Estadio da Luz.
Although they successfully played the first game of the CL league phase, they must not let up against Atletico under any circumstances. Given the extremely difficult program, a good result against Atletico would be extremely important if they are to have any chance of beating top opponents like Barcelona, Bayern or Juventus Turin.
On the other hand, UEFA has already announced that eight points could possibly be enough to reach the playoffs. However, the opening match against Red Star Belgrade was by far the easiest task compared to the upcoming opponents in the premier class.
Odds Analysis
I’m not really a big fan of betting on draws, because I often think the risk is too great, but in this case I’m actually considering betting on a draw. Although the guests have significantly more individual quality, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
In my opinion, Portuguese teams are often underestimated, which is also backed up by the numbers: in the last 10 CL seasons, only once did a Portuguese club not make it past the group stage.
Nevertheless, the Portuguese are still far too poorly treated by the bookmakers when a game takes place at the European level. Benfica have reached the knockout phase of the Champions League seven times.
This season is also extremely exhausting and long for Lisbon. The squad is well enough positioned to meet this challenge. Despite the departures of key players such as Rafa, David Neres, Joao Neves, Joao Mario and Marcos Leonardo, Luisao has once again managed to put together a dynamic squad.
In their current form, Benfica should pose a challenge for any opponent. The Eagles showed what they are capable of in the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons. Both times, the two-time European Champion Clubs’ Cup winners reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
While I’m already handing out praise, I want to take a closer look at one of the Portuguese players: Angel Di Maria. In my opinion, the 36-year-old is one of the most underrated players of all time.
Di Maria won the 2022 World Cup with Argentina, and at club level he won the Champions League with Real Madrid. Throughout his career, he was overshadowed by teammates like Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, and Mbappe, but that doesn’t change the fact that Di Maria was world-class for a long time.
Atletico still undefeated
Speaking of a lack of recognition: What bothers me in the world of football is that, compared to their rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid, far too little is said about Atletico Madrid.
Over the last decade, the Colchoneros have had significantly better results at the international level than the Blaugrana, even though Barca won the title in 2015.
Atletico have also won seven of their last 10 Champions League appearances, scoring 24 goals in the process. On top of that, they have beaten Portuguese opposition in three of their last four meetings.
Furthermore, Simeone’s team is one of the few sides not to have lost a game this season. In nine matches across all competitions, keeper Jan Oblak has only been beaten five times.
The fact that they were able to equalize against rivals Real Madrid thanks to a goal in injury time may well have given them a boost in terms of strength and confidence.
Late goals have been a specialty of the Spanish team this season anyway. That’s probably why ChatGPt is betting on Griezmann’s team to win in half time 2.
A total of 6 of the 14 goals scored by Atletico Madrid in 2024/2025 were scored in stoppage time. This was also the case on the first CL matchday against Leipzig, when they were able to turn a 0-1 deficit around.
This impressive statistic also speaks for good morale and a broad squad. Often it was the substitutes who played a decisive role in the last-minute goals. New signing Alvarez has already scored twice in added time, both times coming off the bench.
Conclusion
Both Benfica and Atletico proved on the first matchday that they should be counted on again in the premier class. Perhaps the guests from the Spanish capital are a little further up than the hosts, but I would be extremely surprised if either team won by a clear margin.
With the self-confidence that Benfica have shown in recent weeks, it will be a difficult task for the perhaps a little overplayed Colchoneros. After all, the wily Spaniards cannot always rely on a goal in added time.
The visitors, who are strong defensively, should also be wary of the goal-scoring eagles, who will be loudly supporting their team from minute one in the football temple of Lisbon.
I predict: Both teams will score at least one goal!
