Bundesliga Matchday 6, Saturday, 05.10.2024 at 15:30
Was the BVB gala in the premier class a foretaste of what awaits Union Berlin this weekend? Not necessarily, I would say.
Celtic Glasgow had a miserable day and then there’s the SIGNAL IDUNA PARK factor, which always serves the Black & Yellows well.
Borussia Dortmund lead the home table in the Bundesliga with nine points from three games, but Nuri Sahin’s team have only managed one point away from home.
A Union Berlin Dortmund betting tip can go in many different directions, but in this case it has the feel of a goal bet.
After the visitors’ goal festival in the Champions League (7:1 vs. Celtic Glasgow), some may wince at my Union Berlin Dortmund betting tip, but listen to the explanations before making a decision.
If you can follow my train of thought, you might also be tempted by the odds of 1.78 at Merkur Bets for “Dortmund Under 1.5 goals”. In other words: BVB will score at most once.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
Before the detailed analysis, the oddsmakers’ odds give a first taste of the thesis that BVB could get into trouble at the Alte Försterei.
After a euphoric night in the European competition, the Black & Yellows are getting quite high odds of 2.20 to win the following Bundesliga matchday.
There is no doubt that the bookmakers see the Köpenickers in the role of underdogs and accordingly give maximum odds of 3.40 for a win for the hosts.
KI prediction Union Berlin vs Dortmund: ChatGPT
Artificial intelligence is on everyone’s lips and therefore I don’t want to deprive you of the AI prediction from ChatGPT, which I have retrieved to give you an impression of what the AI “thinks”.
This time, the high-risk tip brings you odds of 3.40 and focuses on a home win for the Irons. Not to be dismissed out of hand, as Union have won three of their five league home games against BVB so far, but have lost two of the last three.
However, the Berliners are currently without a point at home (2 wins), while BVB are still winless away (1U, 1N).
Another prediction made by ChatGPT assumes that the hosts will score the first goal of the game. In both of their home games, the Irons scored to make it 1-0, and that could also be the case against BVB, who recently fell 1-0 behind twice.
The AI tip that both teams will score seems quite promising to me. In Borussia’s last three matches, both opponents have scored, while both teams have scored at least one goal in two of the previous five BL matches.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs Dortmund
The biggest task for the Irons will be to guard Serhou Guirassy. The new Dortmund player has stepped up the pace in recent weeks and shone as an ice-cold finisher.
He has crowned his last four appearances with a total of six goals. Four of these six goals came in the last two competitive matches against Bochum (4:2) and Celtic Glasgow (7:1).
First and foremost, the Iron’s back three will be looking after the attacker. With Danilho Doekhi, Kevin Vogt and Diogo Leite, there is plenty of physicality waiting in the back line.
Leite in particular exuded great confidence in the first few weeks of the season and was one of the ten most successful defenders in the German top flight, winning 75.51 per cent of defensive duels
BVB cannot expect great pressing from Köpenick. According to Wyscout, only Frankfurt (17.24) and Bremen (16.92) needed more passes to trigger a defensive action than Union Berlin (14.6).
The home side’s style of play is designed to defend as compactly as possible and deliver the decisive punch with a few pinpricks.
Bo Svensson’s players have done their defensive duties brilliantly so far, but they are clearly lacking the right sequences going forward.
No team in the Bundesliga has scored fewer expected goals than the Irons (4.17 xG), so a bet on “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.00 is attractive with a Winamax freebet.
Odds analysis
In principle, I think the odds for “Under 2.5 goals” are a bit too high. I first want to see Dortmund generate a similar impact away from home as they do in their own stadium.
It’s also debatable whether a handicap bet with an advantage for the hosts should play a role in your thoughts.
After all, Union Berlin won their first two home games of the season, while BVB only managed a measly one point away from home.
What should also be discussed would be a “Both teams score: No” bet. Union Berlin lack the ways and means for the offensive game and I have already mentioned BVB’s problems away from home.
Union Berlin vs Dortmund odds: Poison and bile
Bo Svensson has brought the fire back to Köpenick. Under the former Mainz coach, Union Berlin have adopted a 3-4-2-1 formation, which is particularly advantageous when working against the ball.
Doekhi, Vogt and Leite, three giant players who can each throw at least 1.90 m tall into the ring, defend centrally in defense.
If an opponent is about to create a dangerous situation that could potentially put Union Berlin under pressure, a foul may be called to interrupt the flow of the game.
The Ironmen have lived up to their name so far, committing the most fouls per game (14.6). However, Union are so well-positioned when it comes to opposition set-pieces, with just 1.12 xGA (4th), that a punishable tackle resulting in a set-piece is not a problem.
Afraid in the distance
After five completed matchdays, BVB have scored eleven goals. However, Dortmund have scored 91 per cent of their goals this season in their own stadium.
Away from the yellow wall, Borussia disappointed, at least within the Bundesliga. In Bremen’s Weser Stadium, Sahin’s team completely failed in attack (0.63 xG) and were lucky to draw 0-0.
On the other hand, the Black & Yellows were by no means spared on their second visit to Stuttgart, but left the pitch with a 1:5 defeat.
The Champions League contenders also failed to score more than 0.66 expected goals against the runners-up.
At the Alte Försterei, it will be at least as difficult to create scoring chances. Union Berlin allowed the fewest shots on goal (12) after Bayern (8).
What’s more, Svensson’s side have not conceded more than 1.5 goals in a single league game, which has given them plenty of confidence.
Union Berlin not only conceded the second-fewest shots on goal of all Bundesliga teams (12), but also rarely gave them the space to create promising chances.
0.08 goals conceded per shot are undisputedly the best figure in the German top flight and should present BVB with a tricky task.
If there is one Dortmund player who can threaten Rederik Rönnow’s goal, it is Serhou Guirassy. The attacker scored 0.91 expected goals per 90 minutes – a top-3 figure.
If you take this data as an opportunity to place a bet on “Serhou Guirassy to score”, you can use this Bet365 bonus for odds of 2.37.
However, I don’t think the striker with a built-in goal guarantee can score more than one goal, as he will have to work too hard against the Iron’s back three.
My Union Berlin Dortmund tip:
Union Berlin have had the whole week to prepare for the upcoming home game against BVB and will have continued to work on their compactness.
Dortmund will have to be prepared for much more resistance than in the premier class (7:1 vs. Celtic) and also fight their inhibitions away from home.
For me, Dortmund under Nuri Sahin have not yet provided enough material to suggest another goal festival for the visitors.
My Union Berlin Dortmund tip: Dortmund under 2 goals
