NFL 2024/25: Saints – Broncos
In week 7 of the NFL, the New Orleans Saints (2-4) face the Denver Broncos (3-3) at the Caesars Superdome – and I can tell you, it’s going to be exciting!
The bookmaker giant, where I placed my Saints Broncos tip, is making you two great offers at the start of the new match day.
One of these offers concerns the Bet365 bonus, while the other concerns the so-called “under” in this game…
The Saints are currently struggling with four consecutive defeats, while the Broncos had to end a three-game winning streak against the Chargers (16:23) last week.
Given the previous performances of both teams, it could be a low-scoring game. At least that seems to be the opinion of the experts who are helping to work out the Saints Broncos odds for Happybet sports betting and Oddset sports betting.
So let’s take a closer look at the form curves of both opponents! I will provide you with data that shows that the expectation of fewer touchdowns is correct, but that the bookies have still set an “under” that is far too low.
The Saints were almost horrified by the performance of replacement quarterback Spencer Rattler last week, who was unable to really convince with his plays in his NFL debut.
With only 6.1 yards per attempt and a completion rate of 55% with two interceptions, there was a lot to be desired in terms of what he brought to the field. And when he has to face the well-organized Broncos defense on Friday, it won’t be any easier.
Rattler faces a real challenge, especially since the Broncos defense is playing well and seems to work better together than the sum of its individual parts. This raises the question: can New Orleans score enough points?
To make matters worse, the Saints offense might have to play without their top wide receiver Chris Olave, who is dealing with a concussion. Taysom Hill (ribs) and other key players are also on the list of possible absentees.
Injuries, injuries, injuries – and at the end of a short week. That could make life difficult for the Saints!
On the other hand, the Denver Broncos defense under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is playing impressively, with the fourth-fewest expected points added (EPA) per game and the third-fewest yards per game.
These are definitely numbers that should give the Saints’ coaching staff something to think about, especially considering that they haven’t been producing as many points offensively in the last four games.
That doesn’t necessarily favor a high scoring game, does it? However, there is no denying that the Saints usually make for entertaining games! After all, 6 of their last 7 NFL games have seen them score over 50 points.
Also, note that the Saints are giving up the second-most yards per play and have allowed the highest EPA per rush over the last four games.
This could encourage the Broncos quarterback to be a bit more aggressive than he has been.
Meanwhile, to Bo Nix’s credit, he has thrown just a single interception in the last few weeks.
This is not entirely uninteresting, because in a close game like this, the number of turnovers could make the difference in the end…
So far, I have given the impression that the game should be relatively low in touchdowns.
But automatically accepting the “under” of the betting providers without tax does not have to be the logical conclusion of an experienced betting pro.
Because even for only 34 points, the bookmakers still offer an interesting odds of 1.55 – and that would be a very low score by NFL standards.
What’s more, it would be the first time since 1994 that a game between these two teams would produce fewer than 34 points.
So I stand by my prediction: It will be hard to get more than 40 points on Friday, but even these two low-performing offenses should be able to score at least six touchdowns between them.
Conclusion: The many injuries make life difficult for the New Orleans team.
Nevertheless, this does not necessarily mean for American football fans that a substitute QB in the pocket automatically has to provide little entertainment.
In their last game, 78 points were scored, which is why I remain optimistic that the very low “under” of the bookmakers will be cracked on Friday.
Especially since the Saints defense is no longer as good as it was at the beginning of the season.
My Saints Broncos betting tip is: Over 33.5 points!
