Conference League, Qualification, 2nd Round, First Leg, Thursday, 24.07.2025 at 20:00
The Conference League is kicking off its qualifying rounds for the fourth time. Anything can happen in the early rounds, especially since the participants have only just completed their preseason preparations. This is wonderful for the excitement, but extremely difficult for accurate predictions.
Even in my AEK Hapoel Be’er Scheva tip, it wasn’t easy for me to come up with the right bet right away. Ultimately, however, I came to the conclusion that fighting spirit will be the key factor here. That means for you: bet on “under 2.5 goals”!
Greek clubs are welcome in international competitions, but AEK Athens has yet to achieve any notable success – let’s leave the 1977 UEFA Cup semi-final aside.
What does the history book say about Hapoel Be’er Sheva? I can’t find a knockout round in international competition, but they did reach the main round in 2020/21 and 2022/23 (here in the Conference League).
So, I’m now turning my attention to the Israelis. The team would have liked to qualify for the Europa League this season, but the first qualifying round proved to be a (albeit very narrow) step too far.
In the first leg against Levski Sofia, the fans saw a rather lackluster performance and a 0-0 draw, while the 1-1 draw in the second leg, after nothing happened in extra time, meant that the game went to penalties.
The league has not yet started in Israel, but the Super Cup against Maccabi Tel Aviv has already taken place – and Hapoel won 2-1 to claim the title.
So far, there have been three competitive games this season. Not many, but some teams don’t collect that many red cards in an entire season! In all three matches, an Israeli player was sent off.
However, I can also praise them for this, because Hapoel spent an hour with one man down in the Super Cup and still managed to beat their opponents 2-1.
Incidentally, Hapoel has faced Greek opponents four times so far, with a record of one win, one draw, and two losses, which leaves room for improvement. Let’s take a look at how the odds for this qualifying first leg have been set.
The bookmakers, who score particularly well with fast payouts, see AKE as the overall favorite. The choice is yours: either bet on the winner of the first match or go straight for the team that will advance.
1.70 to 4.80 are the odds for a win on Thursday. When it comes to who will reach the third round, we are offered an average of 1.55 to 2.45.
What can we say about AEK Athens, perhaps a funny story about a red card? No league start in Greece, no national Super Cup, no qualifying matches before the current second round – there isn’t much to analyze.
The impressions from the test matches are positive, at least. 1-0 against Omonia Nicosia, 2-1 against Kortrijk and 4-1 against Beerschot, the latest results weren’t bad.
Considering that AEK Athens finished second in the championship round a few months ago, the playoffs were incredibly disappointing. Six games, six defeats, with nothing to show for it against top clubs Olympiacos, PAOK Saloniki, and Panathinaikos.
Fans will know how important the first leg is in the Conference League qualifiers. In 2021/22 and 2024/24, the Greeks tried their luck here, losing both times in the first leg.
With a 1-2 and 2-3 defeat on penalties against Velez Mostar and a 1-3 and 1-0 defeat against FC Noah, the team does not have fond memories of the competition. However, unlike in those two seasons, Athens now has home advantage in the first leg.
Admittedly, I don’t see who the favorites are here at first glance. I don’t see either Hapoel Be’er Sheva or AEK Athens in a position to compete at the top of the Conference League.
With the Israelis, I immediately noticed the three red cards, plus the very narrow, unfortunate Europa League qualifying defeat against Levski Sofia. Once that has been digested, will they take their chance in the Conference League?
I expect a combative, passionate encounter in which the famous little details will make the difference. Accordingly, my prediction is:
There won’t be more than 2.5 goals!
