Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Tuesday, 25/11/2025 at 18:45 CET
Ajax threatens to disappear into the same sporting oblivion as a few seasons ago. It is already becoming apparent that 2025/26 will no longer be an easy path to return to the Eredivisie throne – possibly none at all!
According to my Ajax Amsterdam Benfica prediction, it is therefore worthwhile to bet on the guests from Portugal on Tuesday, especially in this difficult phase for the club. The betting providers without tax are currently offering you extremely attractive away win odds anyway.
And to be honest, the way the Ajax defence did against Excelsior (1-2) at the weekend, it shouldn’t be long before Vangelis Pavlidis gets his chance.
Do you still need a really good reason to join my Ajax Amsterdam Benfica tip? Then take a look at these numbers – they show pretty clearly why it’s really one of the most difficult times to be a proud Ajax fan right now.
Because Ajax already goes into this game with the longest losing streak in its club history.
They have lost all of their last seven games in major UEFA competitions – three of them in the Europa League and four in the Champions League. And the goal difference of these seven defeats? A disastrous 4:22.
Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica Prediction & Betting
Personally, I believe in a victory for the Portuguese, but in the context of my Ajax Amsterdam Benfica prediction, the decision does not necessarily have to be made in the first half.
Against this background, I really like the selection 2nd half: Benfica 2+ goals, especially at odds around 3.15.
Reason: Ajax conceded four of their five Champions League goals at home in 2025/26 only after the restart!
A largely uneventful first half is therefore well conceivable. Only after the change of sides should there be more momentum in the game.
What you need to know about Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica betting
- Ajax have conceded the most goals after four games this Champions League season (14). However, the Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 8.63 indicate bad luck, as the underperformance of +5.37 xGA is the highest in the league.
- Benfica have lost their last six consecutive UEFA Champions League games, including the first three under coach José Mourinho, without scoring a goal. Mourinho has never suffered four consecutive defeats in the UCL with the same team.
- The last meeting was in the 2021/22 UCL round of 16, with Ajax strong favourites in both games (2-2 in Lisbon, 0-1 in Amsterdam), but Benfica remained unbeaten and won in Amsterdam.
- Wout Weghorst is Ajax’s only goalscorer in this Champions League campaign. His teammates had 28 shots without scoring (0 goals from 2.99 xG).
Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our recent Ajax Amsterdam Benfica AI prediction focuses very much on one particular player: Vangelis Pavlidis.
The bets 1st goal: Pavlidis and Pavlidis scores are equally recommended at odds of 4.10 and 1.95 respectively – depending on how pronounced your individual risk tolerance is!
Personally, I can gain a lot from both proposals. Although the Greek suffered a minor injury in his team’s 3-2 win during the international break, he still seems to be ready for action on Tuesday.
In any case, his numbers speak for themselves: In the past 12 months, Pavlidis has scored an average of 0.95 goals per 90 minutes, whether in the European Cup or in the domestic league.
Ajax under 1.5 goals is also recommended by our AI – and even at odds of only 1.50 on average, I can give my blessing to this betting project.
The Dutch have only surpassed this mark once in the last seven competitive games, although they have had to deal with significantly weaker opponents than Benfica in this period.
If I were you, I would also consider the risk variant, victory Benfica without conceding a goal. Personally, I expect a 2-0 victory for the Portuguese anyway.
The best odds for Ajax Amsterdam vs. Benfica
Let’s take a concentrated look at the betting markets and analyse exactly what the Ajax Amsterdam Benfica Lisbon odds look like before this crucial duel.
Both teams are under massive pressure – they have to throw everything into it to survive the league phase.
An Ajax victory is currently valued at 3.90, which corresponds to a probability of occurrence of around 25 percent.
The betting markets see the Dutch as outsiders – and in fact, the cult club forced itself into this role with its subterranean performance against Excelsior at the weekend!
The tie is 3.60, about 27 percent chance. This rate shows that the bookies are taking into account a hard-fought, tough game in which both teams know exactly that any mistake can mean the end.
A Benfica three-pointer, which I’m also flirting with, is finally listed at 1.90, around 52 percent probability.
The Portuguese have the slightly better starting position, supported by quality, experience and a more stable overall performance over the previous games.
Ajax Amsterdam vs Benfica Match Analysis:
This duel feels like an early knockout match between two teams that have so far fallen far short of expectations.
Benfica have failed to score in their last three Champions League matches, while Ajax have conceded 14 goals – more than any other team in the competition.
Both teams significantly underperform their xG values. Ajax is one of the five worst teams in this category with 2.99 “missing” goals.
Benfica should also have scored at least once against Leverkusen: 21 shots and 1.42 xG remained unrewarded.
In terms of possession, both teams are close to each other, with Benfica slightly ahead with 49.5%. Everything points to an intense game between two teams on an equal footing – the question is who is willing to take more risks.
Benfica’s Champions League appearances this season have been disappointing offensively on the road: only 0.59 xG against Chelsea (0-1) and Newcastle (0-3). However, Mourinho’s team is not on the same level of quality as these two Premier League clubs.
Both Ajax and Benfica are struggling with weak performances in European competitions, but in the end I see the guests at a slight advantage on Tuesday despite all the problems.
The decision in favour of Mourinho’s team should be made in the second half, as his team will face less resistance than in the games against the two top English teams just mentioned.
Ajax Amsterdam Form Check
Back in the Champions League after a two-year break, hardly anyone would have thought that Ajax would be so weak in the first four games of the league phase.
Even after missing out on the Eredivisie championship title against PSV, the crisis seemed to spill over into the new season: In the first eight league games, wins and draws alternated, and Ajax only kept two clean sheets.
In the Champions League, they are currently the most harmless offense: Only one goal from an expected xG value of 3.99, a difference of -2.99 – the fifth worst of all teams in this competition.
The conversion rate of chances is 3.3%, which is the lowest in the competition. Wout Weghorst, meanwhile, remains the biggest threat, as he scored the only goal in the game against Chelsea so far.
Ajax have already been behind 68% of their time this season – the highest figure in the Champions League. With a goal difference of -13, the chances of making the playoffs are extremely low, even with a win on Tuesday.
On paper, the next three games against Qarabag, Villarreal and Olympiakos seem easier, but the team urgently needs a significant improvement in performance to still have a realistic chance of progressing.
Benfica form check
Benfica reacted to the opening defeat against Qarabag in the Champions League and dismissed Bruno Lage.
Jose Mourinho took over the helm, but has not been able to turn the European Cup around so far: three games, three defeats as Benfica coach. The tasks were not easy – away defeats against Chelsea and Newcastle, plus a narrow home defeat against Leverkusen.
In the last game against Leverkusen, however, Benfica showed a strong performance: With 0.88 more expected goals (xG) than the Germans, the Portuguese would have deserved all three points.
Offensively, the aforementioned Vangelis Pavlidis stands out, scoring 13 goals in 21 appearances and scoring an average of every 128 minutes.
In midfield, Enzo Barrenechea and Richard Rios provide structure and dynamism: Barrenechea has 5.5 progressive passes per 90 minutes, Rios shines in dribbling with 1.32 successful actions per 90.
Defensively, Benfica are showing solid stats, allowing just 11 shots per game in the league, well below the average of 13.44, and opponents average just 23.5 touches of the ball in the box – 1.88 less than the Champions League average.
This shows that the Iberians are defensively stable, even if the points in Europe have not yet been scored.
