Europa League, knockout playoffs, second leg, Thursday, 2025-02-20 at 21:00 CET
Who is Eintracht Frankfurt playing against in the last sixteen of the current Europa League season? My Ajax Amsterdam Union St. Gilloise tip could provide you with an answer. Because the Hessians can only meet two possible winners of the playoff round.
In addition to Ajax or Saint-Gilloise, the winner of the PAOK Saloniki v FCSB Bucharest tie could also face the SGE. And the tie between the Dutch record champions and the Belgian cup winners seems as good as decided.
The “Godenzonen” won the first leg in Belgium last week with 2:0 and are thus on the verge of advancing to the last 16. In my Ajax Amsterdam Union St. Gilloise prediction, there is no real doubt about the outcome of the game.
So I bet on “Ajax to win” at odds of 1.85 at Interwetten.
In terms of the betting odds, the market value (187 million to 72 million euros) and the home advantage speak in favor of the hosts. However, the fact that a draw is enough for the home side to advance also plays a role.
So this time you get odds of just over 1.80 on average for a home win from the best betting providers. And on the other side, a win for the guests is sweetened with Ajax Amsterdam against Union St. Gilloise odds between 4.00 and 4.40.
Last season, the otherwise so successful AFC Ajax experienced one of the darkest chapters in its history. In addition to a historic 6-0 defeat against arch-rivals Feyenoord, the “Godenzonen” slipped to last place in the Eredivisie for the first time.
In the end, however, the new coach John van’t Schip managed to guide Amsterdam to fifth place and thus into the Europa League. Last summer, under the new management duo of Alex Kroes and Marijn Beuker, there was a fresh start.
Francesco Farioli was the first foreign coach to be hired since 1998. And Ajax found their way back to success surprisingly quickly. Last weekend, the “Amsterdamsche Football Club” took the lead in the table.
Now they have a two-point lead over champions PSV and can expand this cushion in a catch-up game.
The new team’s showpiece is the defense. 18 goals conceded is the clear best value in the domestic league. In the Europa League, Amsterdam also got off to a good start with three high victories from the first four games.
There were successes against Besiktas (4-0), Qarabag (3-0) and Maccabi Tel Aviv (5-0). However, a short dry spell followed with three defeats in a row against Real Sociedad, Lazio and Rigas FS.
A 2-1 home win over Galatasaray on the final matchday of the league phase saw Ajax go into the playoffs in 12th place. In the end, they missed out on a direct ticket to the last 16 by just one point.
In the current competition, Amsterdam has the third-best shooting accuracy (59%), the second-best expected goals (16.7) and the second-most clean sheets (4).
In the 2021/22 season, Royale Union Saint-Gilloise returned to the Belgian first division after a 48-year absence and immediately caused a sensation with two runners-up titles and a third place.
While the club has yet to taste league success since their comeback, they did manage to lift their first trophy in a whopping 110 years when they won the Belgian Cup in May 2024.
This season, the Unionistes have been forced to pay tribute to the large-scale bloodletting that has become ever more widespread in recent years following the club’s numerous successes. After 26 match days, USG are in third place.
But they are already 14 points behind league leaders Genk. Here, the team of coach Sebastien Pocognoli left points lying around, especially with ten draws (12W, 4D). Too many points.
Internationally, the club from Brussels was allowed to start in the Champions League. After advancing against Glasgow Rangers, they were knocked out in the qualifiers by Slavia Prague. In the Europa League, they finished in 21st place.
In the first four games of the league phase, Saint-Gilles had only collected two points. But at least they managed a 1-1 draw at home against AS Roma. Then they had a strong run with three wins, which was enough to qualify for the playoffs.
The team had trouble converting their chances. With an expected goals value of 15.3, Saint-Gilles only managed to score eight times. Only two Europa League teams have a lower shot conversion rate than Saint-Gilles (7.7%).
Half of all shots on target were scored by Franjo Ivanovic (4).
The two clubs met for the first time last week. With an even balance of possession (50-50), the guests led in terms of expected goals (1.36 to 0.59).
However, the home side narrowly led in terms of total shots (13:10). The score at half-time was still 0:0. After that, Christian Rasmussen (59th minute) and 16-year-old Belgian Jorthy Mokio (71st minute) scored the two goals for the 2:0 win.
Ajax have a record of 11 wins, four draws and four defeats against clubs from Belgium. AFC have won seven of their last eight home games against Belgian opponents.
Saint Gilloise faced a Dutch opponent for the first time this season in the league phase of the Europa League. The Unionistes won 1-0 at Twente Enschede.
The return leg on Thursday is also likely to be a close game. This is also due to the fact that Ajax would already qualify with a draw. So I could easily imagine betting tips like “under 2.5 goals” or “draw at half-time” for Ajax Amsterdam Union St. Gilloise.
For example, NEO.bet offers odds of 2.08 for fewer than two goals. And a draw at half-time is rewarded with 2.30 in the Bet365 app.
Conclusion: Ajax already set the course for the round of 16 in the first leg. And the men of coach Francesco Farioli will not let this butter be taken off their bread in front of their own fans in the second leg.
The fact that the AFC took the lead in the Eredivisie last weekend should provide additional self-confidence and further momentum.
So I expect the Dutch record champions to win the second leg as well in my Ajax Amsterdam Union St. Gilloise betting tip.
My tip: Ajax Amsterdam win
