ATP Masters in Rome, semi-final, Friday, 16.05.2025, 15:30
Someone is determined to get back to the top of the world rankings! Carlos Alcaraz had to take a short break recently, but now the Spaniard is back where he belongs. He will be aiming for a ticket to the final at the Masters in Rome on Friday.
His opponent is not an easy one, but unlike Alcaraz, he often has to battle with shaky nerves. In my Alcaraz Musetti tip, I’ll tell you why I’m backing the Italian to win this set
22 years old, won a Grand Slam tournament on all surfaces – Carlos Alcaraz doesn’t really have to prove anything to anyone anymore. The Spaniard has now also learned to deal with minor crises and accept defeat. After his triumph in Monte Carlo, for example, not everything went smoothly.
He lost the final in Barcelona to Holger Rune and had to pull out of Madrid with an injury. So his fans didn’t really know in what physical condition he would travel to Rome. In the Spanish capital, Alcaraz overcame one or two minor wobbles, but on the whole he performed very convincingly.
After his 6-3, 6-3 opening match against Dusan Lajovic, he won 7-6, 2-6 against Laslo Djere. However, a much tougher match awaited him against Karen Khachanov and the spectators were offered a lot for their money. In the end, Alcaraz snatched a 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 win, leaving a few grains on the table
And yet: In the quarter-finals, the 22-year-old once again showed a very confident side. He won 6-4, 6-4 against Jack Draper, making ice-cold use of all four break opportunities. However, as he gave Draper eight breaks, it is also clear that there is still room for improvement on his serve.
Khachanov already had nine break chances on his side, which is too many. 29 unnecessary errors in the quarter-finals, 61% of points won on his first serve, Alcaraz was lucky that Draper was unable to take advantage of the weak phases. After the tournament, regardless of whether Alcaraz makes it to the final or not, he will once again be ranked No. 2 in the world
The Spaniard has never reached a final in Rome. There is no question that he is still the favorite in his semi-final. The average odds are 3.10 to 1.30.
Alcaraz and Musetti have already faced each other once this year, in the Monte Carlo final. After the multiple GS champion had lost the first set 3-6, he turned on the heat and won 6-3, 6-1, 6-0 in the end.
Five direct duels have taken place so far, four of which went to Alcaraz. The Spaniard has won all of the last four, three of them easily. If you want to bet on a win without losing a set this time, you can do so at Betano at odds of 1.90. Lorenzo Musetti will certainly not be bothered by the fact that he goes into this match as the underdog
The Italian is playing a strong tournament, beating Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals. He won 7-6 (1), 6-4, even though only half of his first serves reached the target.
He made the most of all three break chances and proved to be just as ice-cold as Alcaraz against Draper. Musetti had previously eliminated Daniil Medvedev 7-5, 6-4 in the round of 16.
For the sake of completeness, here are the other results from Rome: 6-4, 6-3 against Brandon Nakashima and 6-3, 6-2 against Otto Virtanen. All in all, it is clear that Musetti has yet to drop a single set in Rome, despite playing some very well-known opponents! He is now aiming to reach the final in Rome for the first time ever and would definitely like to win a Masters title.
In Madrid, Musetti was defeated by Jack Draper in the semi-finals, and in Monte Carlo he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the final. The 22-year-old is still missing one title this year, so a triumph here in Rome wouldn’t be the worst application for the upcoming French Open
My Alcaraz Musetti tip
Duell number six, please! Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti face each other in a semi-final of superlatives on Friday. I’ll be honest: I was more impressed by the Italian.
Musetti has come through so far without losing a set despite challenging opponents and has also knocked out Alexander Zverev. The time could gradually be ripe for a big win. I now dare to make at least one bet:
Musetti takes a set!
