US Open, 1st round, Wednesday, 27.08.2024, 01:00
Carlos Alcaraz is aiming for his third Grand Slam title this year. He won his first major title in New York two years ago. On Wednesday night, he will play Li Tu, who is competing in a Grand Slam tournament for the second time in his career.
The 186th player in the world starts as the clear underdog. Ultimately, Tu’s match against Alcaraz will be the most important match of his career. He has had a strong qualifying campaign and is currently at his personal record ranking in the world rankings, and the trend is rising.
In the duel against the Spaniard, I reckon that he can at least pick up a few game wins in the sets and am sending Tipwin’s “Over 24.5 games” bet into the race
At Wimbledon, Alcaraz successfully defended his title against Novak Djokovic, having previously triumphed at the French Open. He met the Serb again the second time in Paris, this time losing in the final of the Olympic Games.
The gold medal went to Novak Djokovic, who has now won everything there is to win and is already the most successful player in history with 24 Grand Slam titles. At the age of 21, Alcaraz still has plenty of time to secure one for himself in the future.
Alcaraz has only played one hard-court match after the tournaments full of matches, after the Olympic final he served again for the first time at the Masters in Cincinnati.
However, the transition to hard court went wrong. A three-set defeat against fan favorite Gael Monfils. He raged on court several times, unusual for the superstar
It remained the only hard court match for the man who triumphed on the surface in Indian Wells this year until the US Open. He has 13 wins from 16 matches. In round one, he will face qualifier Li Tu, and the odds could not be lower: 1.01.
At Bet365, Alcaraz only gets 1.001, while Li Tu gets a whopping 51 odds. Even a single set win for the Australian brings 5.00 on the betting slip. The top sports betting apps clearly show that it should be a clear case for the world number three.
Even if I combine the 3:0 win for Alcaraz without a tie-break using the betting configurator, the result is just 1.25 odds. There is no value there. Personally, the odds are too low for me, which brings me to Tipwin’s overplay bets
Tipwin and Intertops, both of which have a German betting license, are suitable places to go for matches involving heavy favorites in order to find suitable odds for these games. I find the “Over 24.5 games” line particularly interesting. A 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 would already be 24 games.
Tu could allow himself two double breaks, and Alcaraz would have to concede one more service game in one of the three sets. If Tu starts serving in this match, it will be even easier to complete the 25.
There is a lot to be said for that anyway. Alcaraz has only played this one hard court match in Cincinnati before the US Open, overall I still see him as the most vulnerable on hardcourt, he has lost two matches in a row and Tu is in the form of his life
The 28-year-old has been playing consistently good tournaments since the end of July, reached the final of the Lexington Challenger, reached the quarter-finals of another in Lincoln and then qualified for the US Open for the first time.
He held his own against Alejandro Moro Canas, Marco Trungelliti and Jesper De Jong, all players from the top 150, with the latter even taking a set off Alcaraz at the French Open. Alcaraz and Tu have never met before.
I went through Alcaraz’s rather short hardcourt major history for you. Of the 27 matches that have been played to the end, not a single match has been less than 25 games
My Alcaraz Tu tip
Tu is taking part in a Grand Slam for the first time since 2021. He was a wildcard at the 2021 Australian Open, where he also had to play Feliciano Lopez, a Spanish player, and was able to take the first set.
I don’t expect a straight sets win against Alcaraz, but I don’t expect a complete thrashing either. Tu is in good form, Alcaraz has only played one hard court match before New York since March and he didn’t cut a good figure in that match.
25 games have featured in every Alcaraz major match on hard court so far and I expect another one to come.
My Alcaraz Tu tip: Over 24.5 games
