Europa League, Thursday, 2025-02-13 at 9:00 p.m.
Galatasaray is entering the European stage, getting out the calculators! The Turkish record champions have not only attracted attention with their incredibly spectacular results in the creation of our Europa League tips, but also with the number of goals scored.
Now, although they only lost once in the preliminary round, the Lions have to prove themselves in the play-offs.
In my Alkmaar Galatasaray betting tip, you will quickly notice: Gala already had to play against this club in the group stage – and had a tough time doing so.
Alkmaar is a very strong team at home, and does particularly well against Turkish clubs. Based on these initial facts, I can already present you with my betting tip, which is: AZ will not march off the field as losers if there are more than 1.5 goals.
In my opinion, this promises to be an exciting and high-class game, played on an absolutely equal footing. After all, the guests have some weaknesses in defense, so I can’t imagine a clean sheet.
Or will both teams suddenly prove us wrong and now that it’s all about the knockout stage, will they suddenly defend consistently? Why I don’t believe in it, I’ll tell you in my Europa League analysis!
For some it’s the home side, for others the guests! If you look around at our betting providers with a German license, you will quickly notice how difficult it is for them to choose a favorite for this match.
The bottom line is that if you want to place a win bet, you can expect average odds of 2.5 on both sides. Depending on the bookmaker, the values can vary slightly, with Gala or Alkmaar in front.
So is a draw inevitable? Not necessarily, because for this the bookmakers are offering odds of 3.70, which is slightly above the usual average of around 3.50.
AI-Prediction Alkmaar vs Galatasaray: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Finally an outcome bet again! I asked ChatGPT about this interesting playoff first leg and which tips might make sense. I particularly like the high-risk suggestion this time.
It predicts a 2-1 result. Alkmaar has never lost to a Turkish club before, is really extremely strong in Europe (two defeats in the last 35 home games) in its own stadium. So here I agree directly.
Will there be more than 3.5 goals? There were only two in the first leg, but you have to expect anything with Gala, of course. I can well imagine that we will see four or more goals, so the bet, which has odds of 2.15, doesn’t sound too bad.
BTS is also among the suggestions this time, but the corresponding value falls short of 1.50. I can’t imagine anything else, given that Galatasaray didn’t collect a single white vest in the group stage.
Analysis: Alkmaar vs Galatasaray
You could have done without the annoying play-offs, but then you had to lose the last preliminary round game after all! Galatasaray held its own for a long time, doing well with three wins and four draws.
It was only in the group stage final that it suffered its first defeat, losing 2-1 to Ajax Amsterdam. 28 shots and more than 60 percent possession? No, defeats are not always deserved.
The Turkish record champions took an incredible 257 shots during this preliminary round, which is quite something. With 19 goals, they also had the best offense in the end – if only it hadn’t been for the 16 goals they conceded.
This means that there were almost 4.4 goals per game on average – the 1-1 draw against Alkmaar was by far the most boring match. Goals on both sides? They are guaranteed at Gala, never was it different in the group stage.
Odds analysis
All four group home matches of the Dutch had a draw at half-time, so I’m taking the appropriate bet in this match too. At Interwetten, this tip will get you odds of 2.45 – and if you redeem the code “SkiWM25” for it, you can get an Interwetten freebet of over 11 euros on top of that!
Eight goals have been scored in Galatasaray’s away games BEFORE half-time, but Alkmaar has only conceded two in the same period. Therefore, you could risk a 1-1 at half-time, with odds of 6.75 it reads risky and profitable at the same time.
Victor Osimhen, who scored five times for the Lions, is missing on Thursday due to a suspension. New signing Alvaro Morata could step into the breach and score against Alkmaar. The goal scorer bet brings you odds of 2.75 at Bet365.
3:1 against PAOK, 2:2 at RFS, 4:3 against Elfsborg, 3:2 against Tottenham, 2:2 in Malmö, 3:3 against Dynamo Kiev and 1:1 against Alkmaar, as well as 1:2 against Ajax Amsterdam. There was definitely no time for the fans to get bored.
Now you may have noticed immediately: Since the draw against Alkmaar was on Dutch soil, Galatasaray has not managed a single win away from home! Two 2-2 draws, one 1-2 and one 1-1, that doesn’t read well defensively.
Therefore, I will check with Interwetten again and see if the bet “Over 1.5 goals AZ” would be worthwhile for you. Absolutely: you can get odds of 1.83 here.
Alkmaar hard to crack at home
In all the games, it was also interesting to see that Alkmaar scored in their own goal in the first 45 minutes. If Alkmaar scores before half-time on Thursday, the odds will rise to 1.78 – so word has got around about the Turks’ defensive weakness!
It’s something their fans won’t want to hear, of course, but they haven’t won in their last six games against Dutch teams. Added to that is the fact that Alkmaar have a really strong home record.
Two defeats in their last 35 home internationals? It doesn’t get much better than that! I can also see that of the eight duels against clubs from Turkey, not a single one was lost.
The Dutch can go into this playoff first leg with a spring in their step – even though the preliminary round could have gone better, of course. With three wins, two draws and three defeats, they went out, sometimes playing wildly.
In the final group game, they lost 4-3 against Ferencvaros, which was their third away defeat in the competition. They only managed to get one point away from home, which they got in the 2-2 draw against Rasgrad.
But the home games (which was no different with Gala), they were on top of things. 3-2 against Elfsborg, 3-1 against Fenerbahce, 1-1 against Galatasaray and 1-0 against AS Roma, none of which were easy opponents.
Six of the eight goals, not unimportantly, scored Alkmaar only in the second half. A clean sheet was played only once, on the side of the Turks, we had not even noticed a clean slate.
Incidentally, five of the last eight Dutch opponents in European competition conceded a goal by heading, a fact that Galatasaray’s new signing Alvaro Morata should remember.
Mein Alkmaar Galatasaray Tip:
Will Galatasaray put on a show again? A few days after the scandalous game in the league, which didn’t even last 45 minutes, it’s back to the Europa League, where the team is still without an away win.
Alkmaar is a damn unpleasant opponent, who can’t really lose at home in the European Cup and who also loves playing against opponents from Turkey. That’s why my double chance 1X is already set.
Playing to zero is out of the question for the Lions in this competition, but at the same time Alkmaar rarely manages that either. With the visitors scoring 35 goals in the preliminary round, I couldn’t help but make the following tip:
The hosts won’t lose with at least two goals!
