KNVB Cup, Final, Monday, 21.04.2025 at 18:00
Cup final in Holland! No Ajax, no Feyenoord and no PSV – instead, Alkmaar and Go Ahead Eagles have made it to the final. AZ have lifted the trophy four times already, while Deventer are looking for their first success.
I expect a close final with Alkmaar having the upper hand, but the favorites have been in poor form recently, which is why I’m going for the Merkur Bets bet that both teams will score.
After being knocked out of the Europa League by Tottenham, Alkmaar collapsed, failing to win a single league game in the following five matches. They at least picked up a few points against Ajax (2-2), Waalwijk (2-2), and Nijmegen (3-3).
This was followed by two defeats against Feyenoord and Heracles, and they didn’t even manage to score a goal. Therefore, despite the fact that Alkmaar are clearly the better team on paper, I am skeptical about the 1.87 odds. The bookmakers with a US license are offering 3.66 for the Eagles and 3.75 for a draw.
I can well imagine this going into extra time at 1-1 or 2-2. In any case, I have both teams scoring on my radar here. We can expect a clear improvement in performance from Alkmaar in such a special match.
But will they actually keep a clean sheet again? I dare to doubt it. The last time we saw a clean sheet was in the first leg of the Europa League round of 16 against Tottenham (1-0) – and the Eagles have scored in seven games in a row.
That included the cup semi-final against Eindhoven. An early double strike was enough to secure their place in the final. Sparta Rotterdam, Twente, and Noordwijk had previously lost to the Go Ahead Eagles.
Alkmaar faced Ajax in the meantime, winning 2-0, and also defeated Groningen, Quick Boys, and Heracles. All in all, we have seen both teams score in seven of the eight cup games played by the two finalists.
I have already mentioned the Eagles’ accuracy in front of goal. However, we must also mention that they have only kept a clean sheet twice in their last 14 matches.
I’m also confident that there will be goals in the final because neither team has their full squad available. Deventer, for example, will be without Dean James. Alkmaar, meanwhile, will be missing Saiya Maikuma on the wing.
In addition, the Eagles and Alkmaar have created the most chances this season, with 414 and 410 respectively after 29 matchdays in the Eredivisie, putting them in the 400 club. However, the underdogs in the final have actually conceded more shots than they have created themselves.
Alkmaar has done much better with 278, but not in recent weeks. In terms of points, the teams are level on 36 and lie in sixth and seventh place. The maximum they can achieve is qualification for the Europa League.
But one of the two will qualify directly for the second-highest international competition after the cup triumph anyway.
In addition to the cup final, the teams will play each other again in the league. The first leg was already a thrilling treat, ending 2-2. The Eagles managed to conjure up a draw from a 2-0 deficit.
Neutral football fans are also rubbing their hands with glee at the other results. In eight of the last nine encounters, we saw over 2.5 goals. The bet is a fitting addition to my bet on both teams scoring, with odds of around 2.00 depending on the bookmaker.
However, I’ve seen a lot of games this season that ended 1-1 in regular time, and at this stage, I can well imagine that neither team will dare to take the final risk to seal the deal before possible extra time.
An important fact about this match is that AZ has won ten of the 13 encounters! Two more ended in draws, and all previous encounters were played in the Eredivisie. Deventer’s only victory came over ten years ago, when they celebrated a 2-1 home win.
So much for the twelve-year history of this rivalry, which, however, does not quite convince me to place a bet on an Alkmaar victory. After all, there is still the current streak of six games without a win.
That would be more suitable for a free bet. You can secure free bets worth a total of over $50 from our betting providers without depositing a single cent. Just take a look at our free bet overview.
Conclusion: Will Alkmaar get back on track in time for the final? I wouldn’t count on it. Especially not against their upcoming opponent, who is really reliable in front of goal and has lost only one of their last seven competitive games.
That’s why AZ’s fabulous head-to-head record leaves me cold. All in all, I still see this season’s Europa League quarter-finalists slightly ahead, but I expect a really close fight with top chances on both sides. In defense, however, neither team has been convincing recently.
Both teams to score!
