Almaty – Real Madrid Tip Champions League, Matchday 2 on Tuesday, 09/30/25 at 6:45 p.m.
Our AI model doesn’t even seem to want to place a free bet on the home team. And I, too, will take a completely different approach in my Almaty Real Madrid prediction.
Yes, the Madrid team just conceded five goals in the city derby against Atlético, but I firmly believe that Alonso’s team will not let this throw them off course in the long run.
Especially since they have historically been ice-cold when it comes to first encounters! Real Madrid have lost only three of their last 30 games against a team they faced for the first time in the Champions League (24 wins, 3 draws).
Almaty vs. Real Madrid AI predictions:
Kairat had 30 fewer touches in the opponent’s penalty area than their opponents (12 of their own vs. 42 of their opponents) in their 1-4 defeat to Sporting CP in the first round of matches.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, were the team with the most touches in a Champions League match on that matchday (51 against Marseille).
According to our Almaty Real Madrid AI prediction, this clearly indicates a difference in class, which is why bets on Real to win with HC -3 and Real to win & over 4.5 goals have become the focus of our digital betting friends on good sports betting apps.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Almaty win |
Draw |
Real Madrid win |
| 1.4% |
5.1% |
93.5% |
Kylian Mbappe has scored seven times in eight Champions League games for Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu – that’s an average of one goal every 96 minutes. And that’s on top of his incredible run in La Liga!
So it’s clear that our AI model isn’t satisfied with just one goal from the Frenchman. Instead, it recommends betting on Mbappe to score at least two goals at odds of around 2.25. And I don’t need to be told twice!
What you need to know about Almaty vs. Real Madrid betting
- Kairat Almaty has already played nine Champions League games this season (including qualifiers), winning only three in regular time and scoring an average of 0.89 goals per game.
- Real Madrid has scored an average of 1.64 goals per away game in the Champions League over the last three seasons.
- Real Madrid’s most recent Champions League away game against a team with a -2.5 Asian handicap was against APOEL Nicosia in 2017: 0-4 at halftime, final score 0-6.
- Kylian Mbappe has an xG of 2.2 after matchday 1, which is 0.9 more than Ismael Saibari (2nd place).
