World Cup Qualifiers, Wednesday, 20.11.2024 at 13:30
Argentina have some catching up to do after their slip-up against Paraguay. The reigning world champions and leaders of the South American qualifying group face Peru at home, and the odds already suggest that victory is only a question of how high they can go.
The Peruvians are stumbling badly, have scored just three goals in eleven games and are in ninth place with seven points, only Chile have scored less. In my Argentina Peru betting tip, I expect a reaction from Messi’s team and assume that we will see a difference in class.
Winamax has great odds for the bet that the hosts will convert a ball in each half, which I’ll take!
Comfortable situation for Argentina, despite their 2-1 defeat in Paraguay last weekend. They still have a ten-point lead over a non-direct qualifying place with just seven games remaining.
With 20 goals, Argentina have the best offense in South America, and the weakest is now the visitors. The Peruvians have three goals to their name. Soccer icon Paolo Guerrero, who turns 41 on New Year’s Day, is still on board as captain.
Peru has slipped down the continental rankings. The nation has a squad worth just 32 million euros in market value. The fact that Guerrero, when he is fit, still forms the front line is stylish on the one hand, but at the same time it also shows that there are deficits in youth development.
In footballing terms, he is already well past his peak. With an average age of 29.7 years, Peru has the oldest team. Argentina has a much bigger all-round carefree package in its ranks.
This is also reflected in the odds. Argentina is clearly ahead with 1.16, Winamax has given the draw a 7.00, and an away win for the Peruvians (18.0) would be a great soccer miracle.
The odds for the hosts are actually still too high for me. However, the bookmakers are probably a little more cautious after the defeat against Paraguay, in which a 1:0 lead was given away.
The -1 handicap is therefore quite lucrative at 1.56. However, I think the bet that Argentina will score in both halves is even better. There’s a tasty 1.84.
Playing at home is still an immense advantage given the huge geographical differences from country to country. Against Chile (3:0) and Bolivia (6:0), the star ensemble put on a powerful display.
I expect a similar result against Peru. Especially as Wilder Cartagena, an important pillar of the visitors’ play against the ball, will be missing. The six-man picked up a yellow card in the 0-0 draw against Chile last weekend.
Peru have only scored once in their last four international matches. With an expected goals value of 0.79 goals per match, Peru is one of the offensive teams that has missed the most chances so far. Only Chile and Paraguay could have made more of their opportunities.
Argentina, meanwhile, are the most efficient team, which doesn’t really surprise me given the quality of their offense with Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez and co.
In terms of system, Argentina head coach Lionel Scaloni has been busy switching things up. He played a 4-2-3-1 against Paraguay, but will he use it again after the defeat? I expect an adapted formation again.
Peru want to make life as difficult as possible for the favorites. In general, the team places great value on stability and will play with a back three. Without Cartagena in front, it could be even more uncomfortable than I already expect.
Argentina won both the Copa America and the qualifying first leg 2-0. After 47 encounters, the duel speaks for itself: Argentina won 33 times and drew eleven times.
Peru only kept the upper hand three times and conceded their 100th goal in the last match. The national team has never managed to win in Argentina!
Conclusion: Argentina dominate the direct comparison, have scored the most goals in qualifying so far with 20 and have recently demolished their last opponents at home. At the weekend, the world champions were surprisingly defeated by Paraguay.
Now they face a home game against the oldest nation in the group, who have only scored three goals and are without one of their most important players in defense.
My Argentina Peru tip: Argentina to score in both halves
