Arsenal – Bayern Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Wednesday, 26/11/2025 at 21:00 CET
More top game is really not possible. On Matchday 5 of the Champions League, there will be a real cracker between FC Arsenal and FC Bayern. From today’s perspective, both teams are among the closest circle of title candidates and, unsurprisingly, are also on course for the championship domestically.
In my Arsenal Bayern tip, I assume that the Bundesliga club will not be intimidated by the Gunners’ concrete defence and will go forward as usual from the start.
The bet “Both teams score & over 2.5 goals” at odds just below 2.00 at Merkus Bets sets itself up in my opinion.
Of course, I am aware that Arsenal have not yet conceded a goal in the course of the current Champions League season and have only conceded six goals in the Premier League.
Now, however, the Gunners will face the most accurate offense in Europe and can immediately dismiss a possible plan to make the game 1-0.
In fact, Bayern have been playing a historically successful season so far. The clear lead in the Bundesliga is almost a minor matter. This time it should be the trophy – and for this an away win in London would be the right signal to the competition.
Arsenal – Bayern Prediction & Betting
Of course, I have also picked out three betting alternatives for the top game of the Champions League.
And if there is ever the possibility that the “double chance” for Bayern is worth it, then you have to grab it right away. “DC X2” achieves an excellent odds of around 1.70. And don’t forget: Bayern have not yet conceded a defeat in all competitions this season.
The rate for “draw at half-time” is also strong. With a round 2.20 you can get weak. After all, it is to be expected that both teams will meet at eye level. A 1-1 draw at half-time wouldn’t surprise me.
Who is supposed to score for Bayern? Of course, Harry Kane! For at least one goal by the Englishman, the odds at the German bookmakers climb to a solid 2.30. No player (from either team) has lower odds.
What you need to know about Arsenal vs. Bayern betting
- Arsenal have conceded an average of 0.33 goals per competitive game this season – the lowest of any team in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
- Bayern Munich have scored 64 goals in 18 competitive games this season, making them the most dangerous attack in the top 5 leagues.
- In Bayern away games, the bet “Both teams to score – yes” hit the mark in eight of the ten games. At Arsenal, on the other hand, the variant “Both teams to score – no” won in seven of the nine games at the Emirates Stadium.
- Harry Kane scored 24 goals in 18 appearances this season. In the past twelve months, the English striker has averaged 0.98 goals per 90 minutes.
Arsenal – Bayern: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model does not miss such a Champions League cracker. Accordingly, you can look forward to an Arsenal Bayern AI prediction.
At the beginning, the digital brain goes on a simple 1×2 bet. The “draw” is neatly quoted in view of the starting position at a 3.50.
In addition, the last direct duel at the Emirates Stadium ended in a draw (2-2). At the same time, however, this was also the only draw in the last eight meetings.
In the second tip, the AI focuses on the combination “Double Chance 1X & Bayern over 0.5 Goals”. The rate is around 2.10 and thus in a lucrative range. But since I don’t believe in a home win for the Gunners, I would rather go for the “DC X2” including the odds boost.
Yes, the Arsenal defense is currently the measure of all things. Nevertheless, the AI leans out of the window and finally selects the bet “Bayern over 1.5 goals”. The odds for at least two Bayern goals are about 2.50. In the Bundesliga, such a thing would be unthinkable.
The best odds for Arsenal vs. Bayern
The odds for Arsenal against Bayern speak for the hosts. The current rating corresponds to a probability of just under 50% for a home win, while the odds of the Munich team are estimated at a chance of over 25%.
The bookmakers have given Bayern Munich an Asian Handicap of +0.25. In view of the fact that the German record champions have not yet lost a game in the 2025/26 season, this line is likely to be attractive to many punters.
Arsenal have won their last eight matches in the UEFA Champions League league stage with an aggregate score of 24-2. The current run of eight wins is the club’s longest in the history of the competition.
The goal line for Arsenal against Bayern is over/under 2.75 goals. For “over” bets, at least three goals are needed to make a profit.
The goal bets also promise excitement. Arsenal have only conceded six goals in twelve games in the Premier League. In addition, the Gunners are the only team in the Champions League to keep a clean sheet in the first four matchdays.
With Bayern Munich, however, Arsenal will probably face the most suitable opponent to end this streak. The Munich team have scored in all 15 competitive games this season in the Bundesliga and Champions League.
Vincent Kompany’s team has won 14 of these 15 games and averages 3.67 goals per 90 minutes. In addition, the over-2.75 goal bet brought a profit in all 15 Bayern games.
Arsenal vs Bayern Match Analysis:
Both teams expect to make it into the top eight. The odds in the Champions League market as a whole show that they are real title contenders – and the direct duel in the league phase offers the opportunity to make a clear statement.
It promises to be a highly interesting tactical exchange. Bayern has dominated so far both in terms of play and results.
Vincent Kompany’s team has a field tilt – a key figure for territorial superiority – of 70.18 in the Bundesliga (50 stands for an even game). The Munich team controlled the ball in high zones and created a large number of chances.
The aggressive approach has earned Bayern 41 league goals. In addition, the German record champions are the most dangerous team in the Champions League phase with 14 goals. Here, too, it is to be expected that Kompany’s team will rely on a similarly expansive possession style despite the difficult opponent.
Arsenal, on the other hand, has the best defence in the Champions League and has kept a clean sheet in all four games. The Gunners’ opponents had very few shots on target in these four games, so David Raya hardly had to intervene.
The best offense against the best defense – this game is correspondingly difficult to predict. Neither team will be able to develop the usual dominance from the domestic league, which is why the game could well be decided by a single moment of brilliance.
Set pieces could be decisive, because the encounter is likely to be characterized by nuances. Arsenal have already scored three goals from stationary balls in the Champions League – only Liverpool has more.
Bayern will have the danger of these situations in mind, which adds another dimension to the already fascinating game.
Arsenal Form Check
With a six-point lead over the Premier League runners-up, Arsenal are a hot contender for the title. Yes, there are still 26 games to play, but after the 4-1 win in the North London derby, Mikel Arteta’s team looks clearly superior to the competition.
Eberechi Eze scored a hat-trick against Tottenham – the first player to score three goals in a North London derby since 1978. The Gunners dominated the game, unimpressed even by the absence of their central defender Gabriel.
The hosts had 17 shots, Tottenham only three, and Spurs finished the game with an expected goals (xG) value of just 0.07.
Arsenal are unbeaten in ten home games across all competitions. Last season, the club lost only one Champions League game at the Emirates Stadium – the 1-0 defeat in the semi-finals against PSG.
The Londoners are the only team that has not conceded a goal in this Champions League season. They also lead the statistics for both expected goals against (1.94) and shots on target allowed (7).
The hosts have won their last eight group games in front of their home crowd, but have not beaten Bayern since 2015. In the last five meetings, the Munich team has won four and drawn one.
But rarely before has Arsenal been on an equal footing with Bayern – and the role of favourites is justified this time.
Bayern Form Check
After an early 2-0 deficit against Freiburg – after just 17 minutes – Bayern turned a weak performance at home into a clear victory again.
The 6-2 win for the German champions last Saturday meant the 17th win in the 18th competitive game of the season. However, the two goals conceded from set-pieces – a Arsenal speciality – could be a cause for concern ahead of the upcoming Champions League clash.
Four more goals followed in the second half – already the 14th game this season in which the Munich team scored at least three goals.
Bayern have scored 14 goals this Champions League season, putting them level with PSG. In addition, the Munich team hit the woodwork seven times – another indication of the team’s offensive power.
In the group stage – or the new league phase – of the Champions League, Bayern have so far presented themselves as an almost perfect machine. Since 2017, the Munich team have lost only three of their 52 games in the corresponding phase of the competition (45 wins, 4 draws).
