Arsenal – Leverkusen Tip Champions League, round of 16, second leg on Tuesday, 17.03.2026 at 21:00 CET
I watched the cracker in the Champions League for you. My Arsenal Leverkusen tip for the second leg promises high tension after the first duel ended in a 1-1 draw and everything is open.
I’m committing myself to a bet here: “Both teams will score”. Arsenal are a force at home, but Leverkusen impressively proved in the first leg that they can crack the Gunners defence. That makes the bet particularly appealing to me.
The quota for this is really impressive! At Bookmakers you get a smooth 2.10 if both teams net. That’s a top rate, considering how dangerous both offensive lines are and how the last games have gone.
Despite the narrow 1-1 draw in the first leg, the bookmakers see Arsenal with PayPal as the clear favorite to advance. The Gunners naturally want to show a much more convincing performance at their home Emirates Stadium than in Leverkusen.
In the first leg it was a really close game. Gabriel Martinelli only hit the crossbar for the visitors before Robert Andrich headed the Werkself into the lead after the break. So it looked like a deserved home win for Bayer for a long time.
But then came the late equaliser for the English. Substitute Noni Madueke took a penalty, which ex-Leverkusen player Kai Havertz converted ice-cold. So the Londoners travel back with a draw in their luggage.
Arsenal – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting Tips
If you want to be on the safe side, a bet on a home win for Arsenal is a logical choice. The Gunners have only suffered one defeat in the Premier League at the Emirates this season. This is a real fortress.
The odds on pure victory are not huge at about 1.30, but the statistics speak volumes. They conceded the fewest goals in the league in their own stadium, which does not make Leverkusen’s task any easier.
For more risk and better odds, you can combine the win bet with goals. The bet “Arsenal to win & over 2.5 goals” earns a 1.90. In 13 of the Gunners’ 22 home games, three or more goals have been scored.
What you need to consider when betting on Arsenal vs. Leverkusen
- Arsenal’s record run of eight consecutive wins in European competition was ended by the 1-1 draw in the first leg.
- The Werkself have won four of five knockout round duels against English teams.
- Our analysis tool predicts that Leverkusen will only score 0.67 goals while Arsenal will score 2.07.
- Gabriel Martinelli’s chance conversion rate of 40% is the best value in the current Champions League season.
Arsenal – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
At this silence, she interferes with our AI model as always and presents you with additional tip alternatives in his Arsenal Leverkusen AI prediction.
After the draw in the first leg, will Bayer manage to stand up to the Gunners in the second leg? The digital brain at least does not believe in a preliminary decision at half-time. “Draw at half-time” is the first suggestion and comes up with excellent odds around 2.55.
“Arsenal under 2.5 goals” is a very interesting suggestion. The fact is: The Londoners have only scored more than two goals in a game once in the last seven games. Leverkusen have also only conceded more than two goals in the last eight games in the 3-3 draw against Freiburg. The odds of about 1.60 are therefore worth considering.
The AI takes a risk at the end with a result bet. The “2-1 for Arsenal” fits the starting position and has been estimated by the bookmakers at odds of around 9.50 – and thus noticeably higher than a 2-0 (approx. 6.50).
The best odds for Arsenal vs. Leverkusen
Our internal AI tool has calculated the game and sees the matter quite clearly. The probability of Arsenal winning at home is estimated at a whopping 71.2%, while Leverkusen only comes to 11.4%.
The forecast is also clear in terms of expected goals. Arsenal are expected to score 2.07 goals, while the Werkself are expected to score a meagre 0.67. This more than clearly underpins the Londoners’ role as favourites in their home stadium.
This data also explains why the odds for an Arsenal victory are so low. The bookies agree that the Gunners will bring the thing home. Leverkusen will therefore have an extremely difficult time scoring here.
Nevertheless, I find the real value in the goal bets. The odds for “Both Score” are around 2.00. That’s attractive, as Arsenal haven’t always looked solid defensively recently and Leverkusen have the necessary quality.
The Asian Handicap Line for a win by more than one goal is -1.5 for Arsenal. This is a risky bet, as coach Mikel Arteta could also be satisfied with a narrow victory given the busy schedule.
In the end, everything points to a home win, but Leverkusen showed in the first leg that they can keep up. That’s why I advise you to look at goals rather than a handicap victory with the Arsenal Leverkusen betting odds.
Arsenal vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
The first leg ended 1-1 against his former club thanks to a late penalty goal by Kai Havertz, but Leverkusen were in the lead for almost 45 minutes and deserved this partial success. They were really good in the game.
The Werkself were confident on the ball, kept the ball well in their own ranks and did not show Arsenal the respect that many Premier League teams show. Until the penalty, they allowed only five shots by the Gunners.
Coach Kasper Hjulmand’s team was tactically disciplined and lurked for counter-attack chances. However, the lead fell after a corner – with one of Arsenal’s strongest weapons, of all things.
Mikel Arteta had to step up from the bench in the second half, which made the difference in the end. Noni Madueke in particular brought a breath of fresh air after his substitution for Bukayo Saka and took the decisive penalty.
The converted penalty kick by Havertz, also a substitute, secured Arsenal a good starting position for the second leg. Now at the Emirates Stadium, however, the task will be much more difficult for Bayer Leverkusen.
At home, Arsenal have lost only once in 23 competitive games. The general expectation is therefore clear: The Werkself face a mammoth task if they want to progress to the next round.
Arsenal Form Check
In the first leg, the Gunners struggled for a long time to crack the well-organised German defence. Before the break, they only had a single shot on goal. The former cold-bloodedness seems to have been lost somewhat.
It took the substitution of Noni Madueke to change the statics of the game. His direct dribbles led to a late penalty, which Kai Havertz confidently converted against his old club to equalise.
The 1-1 draw secures unbeaten status in the current Champions League season, but ends a historic series. The record run of eight European wins in a row was stopped by Leverkusen.
Arsenal are still fighting for four titles this season, and the pressure is noticeably mounting. This second leg of the round of 16 is a real endurance test, in which they have to reconcile national title ambitions and European dreams.
A look into the past should be encouraging. In the 2001/02 season, a 1-1 draw in Leverkusen was followed by an impressive 4-1 home win. A result that the fans would certainly like to see again on Tuesday.
However, coach Arteta has to do without important players. Leandro Trossard and captain Martin Odegaard are out injured, which doesn’t make the task any easier against a disciplined Leverkusen.
Leverkusen form check
Last Wednesday it looked like an important home win for a long time after Robert Andrich scored with a header to take the lead. The late equaliser was bitter, but the performance against a top favourite boosts self-confidence.
The Werkself have a strong record against English clubs and have lost just one of their last eight UEFA matches. This season, they even celebrated a 2-0 away win at Manchester City in the group stage.
The history also speaks for the guests. Leverkusen progressed in four of five knockout duels against English teams. The only exception was the elimination against Liverpool FC in the 2004–05 season.
After a weak start to 2026 with three defeats, the team has stabilized under Hjulmand. Before the upcoming game against Bayern, there was only one defeat in the last 13 competitive games.
Leverkusen have not lost to Man City, Newcastle and Arsenal this season. So you travel to the Emirates with a clear tactical plan. Their defensive stability and counter-attacking strength are a real weapon.
However, the absence of Alejandro Grimaldo, who is suspended, is a bitter blow. In addition, there are other injury worries that make the task in London even more difficult. Nevertheless, anything remains possible with this Arsenal Leverkusen tip.
